Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

As we highlighted in last week’s Int’l Compass, the weight of the evidence suggests commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials remains a favorite Sector overweight and we believe outperformance is likely to continue considering the Sector’s long-term bullish RS reversal. Additionally, we are upgrading equal-weighted Energy to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections -- add exposure with a focus on small- and mid-caps.

As we highlighted in last week’s Int’l Compass, the weight of the evidence suggests commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials remains a favorite Sector overweight and we believe outperformance is likely to continue considering the Sector’s long-term bullish RS reversal. Additionally, we are upgrading equal-weighted Energy to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections -- add exposure with a focus on small- and mid-caps.

Global Commodity-Related Equity Sectors In Secular Bull

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We have seen with many European and US banks, a sharp reduction of credit costs during 2Q20 compared with 1Q20.  Even in Japan some banks have taken exceptionally high credit costs during the March quarter, suggesting there can be a major reduction during 1Q21 ending in June. There is an altogether different concern from some of Latin America’s largest banks. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itau-unibanco-holding-sa-9d47d196-e503-471b-a84e-ca4401033062" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24550:1" rel="noopener">Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB4 BZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-santander-mexico-sa-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27672:1" rel="noopener">Banco Santander Mexico-B (BSMXB MM)</a> are two that stand out, with incredibly low provision expenses during 1Q20 relative to FY19. This can mean a sharp rise during 2Q20. We have already seen this with some LatAm peers.

We have seen with many European and US banks, a sharp reduction of credit costs during 2Q20 compared with 1Q20.  Even in Japan some banks have taken exceptionally high credit costs during the March quarter, suggesting there can be a major reduction during 1Q21 ending in June. There is an altogether different concern from some of Latin America’s largest banks. Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB4 BZ) and Banco Santander Mexico-B (BSMXB MM) are two that stand out, with incredibly low provision expenses during 1Q20 relative to FY19. This can mean a sharp rise during 2Q20. We have already seen this with some LatAm peers. 

LatAm Banks – Late Bloomers On Credit Costs?

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21296" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21296:1">Banco Santander Sa (SAN SM)</a> has announced that it will make an all share, voluntary offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27672" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27672:1">Banco Santander Mexico-B (BSMXB MM)</a> minorities</li>
<li>The offer values the c 25% free float in SanMex at €2.56bn, which implies, at current exchange rates, a premium of 14%</li>
<li>Santander management's rationale for the offer "reflects its confidence in Mexico and its Mexican subsidiary as well as their long term growth potential" and it increases"its capacity to generate capital organically"; this latter point is helpful, given Santander parent's tight core capital ratio</li>
<li>It is also opportunistic by Santander management, in our view; the maximum up-take of the offer implies 3.5% dilution at the parent, and SanMex is cheap on PBV compared to its quoted LatAm sister banks and versus its own history</li>
<li> We see the offer as, at best, fair, but certainly not generous. Still, this offer is positive for investor sentiment towards the Mexican banks and Santander Mexico share price in the very near term; it is also a small positive for Santander parent, in our view</li>
</ul>



Banco Santander Sa (SAN SM) has announced that it will make an all share, voluntary offer for Banco Santander Mexico-B (BSMXB MM) minorities
The offer values the c 25% free float in SanMex at €2.56bn, which implies, at current exchange rates, a premium of 14%
Santander management's rationale for the offer "reflects its confidence in Mexico and its Mexican subsidiary as well as their long term growth potential" and it increases"its capacity to generate capital organically"; this latter point is helpful, given Santander parent's tight core capital ratio
It is also opportunistic by Santander management, in our view; the maximum up-take of the offer implies 3.5% dilution at the parent, and SanMex is cheap on PBV compared to its quoted LatAm sister banks and versus its own history
 We see the offer as, at best, fair, but certainly not generous. Still, this offer is positive for investor sentiment towards the Mexican banks and Santander Mexico share price in the very near term; it is also a small positive for Santander parent, in our view


Santander's All-Share Offer for SanMex; Scooping up Minorities for a Modest Premium

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

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Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional clients an opportunity to engage with the management of 49 public companies we think have structural competitive advantages, or economic moats, as well as two private companies worth watching. This report distills the highlights from company presentations. A roster of all companies that participated in the conference, including those that held one-on-one meetings with investors, can be found on Page 2 of the attached document.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/069/790/original/img%201.JPG?1542165661" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="69790"></figure>

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional clients an opportunity to engage with the management of 49 public companies we think have structural competitive advantages, or economic moats, as well as two private companies worth watching. This report distills the highlights from company presentations. A roster of all companies that participated in the conference, including those that held one-on-one meetings with investors, can be found on Page 2 of the attached document.

Morningstar Management Behind the Moat 2018: Conference Highlights

Chile

Banco Santander Chile attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services in Chile. The Bank offers personal and corporate loans, credit cards, mutual funds, lease financing, securities brokerage services, and business consulting.

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Banco Santander Chile (BSAN CI)

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

LatAm Banks – Late Bloomers On Credit Costs?

We have seen with many European and US banks, a sharp reduction of credit costs during 2Q20 compared with 1Q20. Even in Japan some banks have...

Daniel Tabbush

Morningstar Management Behind the Moat 2018: Conference Highlights

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional...

Morningstar, Inc.

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Global Commodity-Related Equity Sectors In Secular Bull

We believe commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials & Energy remain our favorite Sector overweights - add...

Vermilion Research

LatAm Banks – Late Bloomers On Credit Costs?

We have seen with many European and US banks, a sharp reduction of credit costs during 2Q20 compared with 1Q20. Even in Japan some banks have...

Daniel Tabbush

Santander's All-Share Offer for SanMex; Scooping up Minorities for a Modest Premium

Banco Santander Sa (SAN SM) has announced that it will make an all share, voluntary offer for Banco Santander Mexico-B (BSMXB MM) minorities The...

Boost Research

Morningstar Management Behind the Moat 2018: Conference Highlights

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional...

Morningstar, Inc.