Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The recent results of Banco Santander, presented for the first quarter of 2025, paint a comprehensive picture of the bank's financial health and growth trajectory.</li>
<li>The performance highlights a record quarter, continuing the momentum from the previous year, and underscores the strategic initiatives undertaken by Santander to navigate the challenging macroeconomic environment.</li>
<li>On the positive side, Santander reported a significant profit increase, reaching EUR 3.4 billion, up 19% from the same quarter last year.</li>
</ul>


The recent results of Banco Santander, presented for the first quarter of 2025, paint a comprehensive picture of the bank's financial health and growth trajectory.
The performance highlights a record quarter, continuing the momentum from the previous year, and underscores the strategic initiatives undertaken by Santander to navigate the challenging macroeconomic environment.
On the positive side, Santander reported a significant profit increase, reaching EUR 3.4 billion, up 19% from the same quarter last year.


Banco Santander: An Insight Into The U.K. Market Outlook & The U.S. Market Expansion Approach!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

<ul>
<li>Volatility finally picked up last Friday, and the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) both gapped lower to close below their 20-day MAs for the first time in over three months.</li>
<li>With that said, all of the major indexes (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IWM) rallied yesterday to fill their gaps from Friday and SPX and QQQ have reclaimed above their 20-day MAs. </li>
<li>This is a bullish signal that suggests any further pullback is likely to be relatively shallow, and should be treated as a buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Volatility finally picked up last Friday, and the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) both gapped lower to close below their 20-day MAs for the first time in over three months.
With that said, all of the major indexes (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IWM) rallied yesterday to fill their gaps from Friday and SPX and QQQ have reclaimed above their 20-day MAs. 
This is a bullish signal that suggests any further pullback is likely to be relatively shallow, and should be treated as a buying opportunity.


Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy; Gr/Val Breakout; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).</li>
<li>Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).
Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.


Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Strong 2024 Financial Performance: Santander reported a record €12.57 billion net profit, exceeding expectations, with 8% revenue growth (€62.2B) and 12% net income growth (€36.18B), boosting RoTE to 16.3%.</li>
<li>The buyback 13.3% of market cap, could raise EPS, improve valuation, and support share price, as it represents 15% of ADTV over two years (or 80 days worth of ADTV).</li>
<li>Santander maintains strong capital and profitability, with a CET1 ratio of 12.8%, RoTE of 16.3%, and an efficiency ratio of 41.8%, reinforcing sustained long-term value creation.</li>
</ul>


Strong 2024 Financial Performance: Santander reported a record €12.57 billion net profit, exceeding expectations, with 8% revenue growth (€62.2B) and 12% net income growth (€36.18B), boosting RoTE to 16.3%.
The buyback 13.3% of market cap, could raise EPS, improve valuation, and support share price, as it represents 15% of ADTV over two years (or 80 days worth of ADTV).
Santander maintains strong capital and profitability, with a CET1 ratio of 12.8%, RoTE of 16.3%, and an efficiency ratio of 41.8%, reinforcing sustained long-term value creation.


Spain

Banco Santander S.A. attracts deposits and offers retail, commercial and private banking, and asset management services. The Bank offers consumer credit, mortgage loans, lease financing, factoring, mutual funds, pension funds, insurance, commercial credit, investment banking services, structured finance, and advice on mergers and acquisitions.

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Banco Santander (SAN US)

Banco Santander: An Insight Into The U.K. Market Outlook & The U.S. Market Expansion Approach!

The recent results of Banco Santander, presented for the first quarter of 2025, paint a comprehensive picture of the bank's financial health and...

Baptista Research

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy; Gr/Val Breakout; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On

Was That It? $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Discretionary $XLY to market weight and Energy $XLE to underweight; Growth vs. Value Breaking Out; Market...

Vermilion Research

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Still Little Evidence that a Meaningful Pullback is Imminent. Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ since 4/22...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Banco Santander: An Insight Into The U.K. Market Outlook & The U.S. Market Expansion Approach!

The recent results of Banco Santander, presented for the first quarter of 2025, paint a comprehensive picture of the bank's financial health and...

Baptista Research

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy; Gr/Val Breakout; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On

Was That It? $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Discretionary $XLY to market weight and Energy $XLE to underweight; Growth vs. Value Breaking Out; Market...

Vermilion Research

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Still Little Evidence that a Meaningful Pullback is Imminent. Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ since 4/22...

Vermilion Research

€10bn Share Buyback

​Santander's strong 2024 financial performance includes record net profit, revenue growth, and buyback plan to boost EPS and share price,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Santander's strong 2024 financial performance includes record net profit, revenue growth, and buyback plan to boost EPS and share price,...