Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For Grupo Gilinski to achieve shareholder control of BanColombia seems increasingly unlikely, and there increased opposition from Grupo Sura and the Grupo Empresarial Antioqueño (GEA)</li>
<li>Nonetheless, Gilinski is effectively creating shareholder value by behaving like an activist investor putting pressure on management teams, particularly in BanColombia and in the other core components of the GEA</li>
<li>BanColombia is delivering improved fundamental performance, as seen in 1Q22 and 2Q22 results, with 2022E ROE guidance of c20% yet to be reflected in its modest PBV ratio of 0.9x</li>
</ul>


For Grupo Gilinski to achieve shareholder control of BanColombia seems increasingly unlikely, and there increased opposition from Grupo Sura and the Grupo Empresarial Antioqueño (GEA)
Nonetheless, Gilinski is effectively creating shareholder value by behaving like an activist investor putting pressure on management teams, particularly in BanColombia and in the other core components of the GEA
BanColombia is delivering improved fundamental performance, as seen in 1Q22 and 2Q22 results, with 2022E ROE guidance of c20% yet to be reflected in its modest PBV ratio of 0.9x


Grupo Gilinski – Grupo Sura; Focus on BanColombia (CIB US)

<ul>
<li>Indirect stake-building in Grupo Sura and related companies means Gilinski is closing in on indirect control of BanColombia; Gilinski’s latest move is the offer for Grupo Argos shares</li>
<li>We believe that Gilinski’s strategy of  “indirect activism” towards BanColombia has incentivised management to deliver improved performance, as seen in 1Q22, with management’s perhaps conservative 2022E ROE guidance at 15%+</li>
<li>Political risk may be receding, now that the firebrand left-winger Petro confronts Hernandez in mid-June’s Presidential election run-off; Hernandez could win by uniting the right and centre anti-Petro vote</li>
</ul>


Indirect stake-building in Grupo Sura and related companies means Gilinski is closing in on indirect control of BanColombia; Gilinski’s latest move is the offer for Grupo Argos shares
We believe that Gilinski’s strategy of  “indirect activism” towards BanColombia has incentivised management to deliver improved performance, as seen in 1Q22, with management’s perhaps conservative 2022E ROE guidance at 15%+
Political risk may be receding, now that the firebrand left-winger Petro confronts Hernandez in mid-June’s Presidential election run-off; Hernandez could win by uniting the right and centre anti-Petro vote


Grupo Gilinski Stays Focused on BanColombia, with Political Risk Potentially Receding in Colombia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The prospect of Russia being excluded from key emerging market indices is very real, in our view, and here we focus on the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF</li>
<li>The main beneficiaries of an index re-balancing would be the dominant EM Asian economies, and select African economies, but we cannot disregard LatAm and in particular we concentrate on financials</li>
<li>Largest weightings aside, we highlight our preferred LatAm financial names based on fundamentals; Banco do Brasil, B3, BanColombia and Banco del Bajio, we also remove Banorte from the sell list</li>
</ul>


The prospect of Russia being excluded from key emerging market indices is very real, in our view, and here we focus on the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
The main beneficiaries of an index re-balancing would be the dominant EM Asian economies, and select African economies, but we cannot disregard LatAm and in particular we concentrate on financials
Largest weightings aside, we highlight our preferred LatAm financial names based on fundamentals; Banco do Brasil, B3, BanColombia and Banco del Bajio, we also remove Banorte from the sell list


EM Banks and Financials – The Rebalancing in Index Weightings from the LatAm Perspective

<ul>
<li>Gilinski’s higher price incremental share bids for both Grupo Suramericana and Nutresa are intended to make Gilinski the largest shareholder in Suramericana and the majority shareholder in Nutresa</li>
<li>We maintain that this strategy is the next step in Gilinski’s plan to gain control of BanColombia indirectly, and also gain control of Suramericana’s interests in asset management and pensions</li>
<li>We see further upside potential for Grupo Suramericana shares, as well as BanColombia shares; the latter are attractively valued versus LatAm peers</li>
</ul>


Gilinski’s higher price incremental share bids for both Grupo Suramericana and Nutresa are intended to make Gilinski the largest shareholder in Suramericana and the majority shareholder in Nutresa
We maintain that this strategy is the next step in Gilinski’s plan to gain control of BanColombia indirectly, and also gain control of Suramericana’s interests in asset management and pensions
We see further upside potential for Grupo Suramericana shares, as well as BanColombia shares; the latter are attractively valued versus LatAm peers


Grupo Gilinski Ups the Ante on Grupo Suramericana with Enhanced Bids

Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana / Event-Driven

Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana (GRUPOSUR CB)

<ul>
<li>Grupo Gilinski’s bid for upto 31.68% of Grupo Suramericana’s ordinary shares follows Gilinski’s bid for 62.625% of Nutresa in November; this is potentially a big wake-up call in corporate Colombia</li>
<li>Gilinski’s bids are, in our view, initial steps in an effort to gain control of BanColombia via the Grupo Suramericana holding, whilst also highlighting the discounted valuations of Suramericana’s holdings</li>
<li>We believe that Gilinski’s offer still provides upside potential for Suramericana ordinary shares; this should also support BanColombia ordinary shares and, under specific circumstances, also be positive for BanColombia ADRs</li>
</ul>


Grupo Gilinski’s bid for upto 31.68% of Grupo Suramericana’s ordinary shares follows Gilinski’s bid for 62.625% of Nutresa in November; this is potentially a big wake-up call in corporate Colombia
Gilinski’s bids are, in our view, initial steps in an effort to gain control of BanColombia via the Grupo Suramericana holding, whilst also highlighting the discounted valuations of Suramericana’s holdings
We believe that Gilinski’s offer still provides upside potential for Suramericana ordinary shares; this should also support BanColombia ordinary shares and, under specific circumstances, also be positive for BanColombia ADRs


Gilinski Targets Grupo Suramericana’s Financial Operations in Hostile Bid

Colombia

Bancolombia S.A. attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services. The Bank offers automobile, personal, and education loans; credit and debit cards; securities brokerage services; fund transfers; lease and foreign trade financing; insurance; and pension funds. Bancolombia and its subsidiaries serve Colombia, Panama, Cayman Islands, Puerto Rico, El Salvador, and Miami.

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Bancolombia SA (BCOLO CB)

Grupo Gilinski – Grupo Sura; Focus on BanColombia (CIB US)

Gilinski's activist style is putting pressure on GEA management, especially BanColombia, to improve returns; the higher ROE in 1Q22 and 2Q22 has...

Victor Galliano

Grupo Gilinski Stays Focused on BanColombia, with Political Risk Potentially Receding in Colombia

Gilinski’s “indirect activism” towards BanColombia is focusing management to deliver improved performance, with political risk potentially...

Victor Galliano

EM Banks and Financials – The Rebalancing in Index Weightings from the LatAm Perspective

Potential Russian shares exclusion from indices is real, with Asian EMs set to gain big, but do not disregard LatAm; our preferred financials are...

Victor Galliano

Grupo Gilinski Ups the Ante on Grupo Suramericana with Enhanced Bids

Gilinski upped the bids on Sura & Nutresa, with the end-game being to gain control of BanColombia & merge it with Gilinski-controlled Banco GNB...

Victor Galliano

Gilinski Targets Grupo Suramericana’s Financial Operations in Hostile Bid

Jaime Gilinski aims to gain control of BanColombia through two hostile bids; there is upside potential for Grupo Sura ordinaries and BanColombia...

Victor Galliano

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