Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We met with the management of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dream-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15783:1" rel="noopener">Dream International (1126 HK)</a> in Hong Kong. The company is riding a hectic phase with its Vietnam operations running at full capacity.</li>
<li>Management is evaluating capacity expansion in Indonesia and Vietnam for plastic and plush toy production serving China, targeting an aggregate capacity increase of approximately 20–30% to meet demand.</li>
<li>The stock has pulled back and trades at 8.9x PE, 5.1 EV-EBITDA, with a 6.2% dividend yield and 21% of the market capitalization in cash, and 10 Yr-Avg ROCE ~20%. </li>
</ul>


We met with the management of Dream International (1126 HK) in Hong Kong. The company is riding a hectic phase with its Vietnam operations running at full capacity.
Management is evaluating capacity expansion in Indonesia and Vietnam for plastic and plush toy production serving China, targeting an aggregate capacity increase of approximately 20–30% to meet demand.
The stock has pulled back and trades at 8.9x PE, 5.1 EV-EBITDA, with a 6.2% dividend yield and 21% of the market capitalization in cash, and 10 Yr-Avg ROCE ~20%. 


Dream International (1126 HK): Postcard From Hong Kong, October 2025

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Nomura Research Institute / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paper-industries-co-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:557:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s CPAF will drop from 3 to 2.7 and there will be further selling in March 2025 as the CPAF drops to 2.4 (or possibly even 2.1!) </li>
<li>Passives will need to buy 7-15x ADV (13-14% of real float) in the adds and sell 2.7-6.5x ADV in the deletes. There is a big reverse funding trade too.</li>
</ul>



Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP) and Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) will replace Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP) and Dic Corp (4631 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). 

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s CPAF will drop from 3 to 2.7 and there will be further selling in March 2025 as the CPAF drops to 2.4 (or possibly even 2.1!) 
Passives will need to buy 7-15x ADV (13-14% of real float) in the adds and sell 2.7-6.5x ADV in the deletes. There is a big reverse funding trade too.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Peak IP momentum risk: Labubu (~23% of revenue) shows fading hype, with resale prices and ex-China search interest normalizing, raising risk of faster-than-expected growth deceleration in 2026.</li>
<li>IP concentration and gap: No other IP has demonstrated Labubu-like scaling, increasing risk of an IP digestion period. Overseas expansion matures and supply normalization caps incremental demand.</li>
<li>Valuation/Expectations mismatch: At 14x 2026E P/E, valuation assumes durable IP growth; TP at HKD 100 to 105 with downgrade risk in 2H26.</li>
</ul>


Peak IP momentum risk: Labubu (~23% of revenue) shows fading hype, with resale prices and ex-China search interest normalizing, raising risk of faster-than-expected growth deceleration in 2026.
IP concentration and gap: No other IP has demonstrated Labubu-like scaling, increasing risk of an IP digestion period. Overseas expansion matures and supply normalization caps incremental demand.
Valuation/Expectations mismatch: At 14x 2026E P/E, valuation assumes durable IP growth; TP at HKD 100 to 105 with downgrade risk in 2H26.


2026 High Conviction: Sell Pop Mart Intl (9992 HK)

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

TOP TOY International Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>TOP TOY is expected to IPO in 2026. The company has completed a ~$60M Series A round that was led by Temasek at a ~$1.3B post-money valuation in July.</li>
<li>In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation, update relative valuation table and examine competitive landscape among domestic and international toymakers.</li>
<li>TOP TOY revenue growth accelerated in 2025 coupled with improving profitability and growing free cash flows. TOP TOY was a major growth engine for MINISO’s business in 3Q.</li>
</ul>


TOP TOY is expected to IPO in 2026. The company has completed a ~$60M Series A round that was led by Temasek at a ~$1.3B post-money valuation in July.
In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation, update relative valuation table and examine competitive landscape among domestic and international toymakers.
TOP TOY revenue growth accelerated in 2025 coupled with improving profitability and growing free cash flows. TOP TOY was a major growth engine for MINISO’s business in 3Q.


TOP TOY IPO Valuation Analysis: Is TOP TOY The Next Breakout IPO in Hong Kong?

<ul>
<li>Bloks Group shares returned ~47% for IPO investors as of today, trailing the HSI’s 30% gain. The stock peaked at HK$190+ and fell ~55% over the following four months.</li>
<li>Shares saw pressure after lockup restrictions expired in July. Until this month, the lockup provision had prevented the majority shareholder and other early investors from selling their shares. </li>
<li>The company’s revenue grew ~28% YoY in the first half of 2025, raising potential concerns of continued slowdown in sales of assembly character toys. Expect stock underperformance to continue.</li>
</ul>


Bloks Group shares returned ~47% for IPO investors as of today, trailing the HSI’s 30% gain. The stock peaked at HK$190+ and fell ~55% over the following four months.
Shares saw pressure after lockup restrictions expired in July. Until this month, the lockup provision had prevented the majority shareholder and other early investors from selling their shares. 
The company’s revenue grew ~28% YoY in the first half of 2025, raising potential concerns of continued slowdown in sales of assembly character toys. Expect stock underperformance to continue.


Bloks Group (0325.HK): Stock Premium Is Not Justified, Growth Has Slowed, ~30% Downside

Japan

Bandai Namco Holdings Inc is a holding company established through merger of Bandai and Namco.  The Group manufactures toys, stuffed animals, character goods, video games, commercial- and home-use game equipment and software. Namco Bandai also operates video game arcades and theme parks.

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Bandai Namco Holdings (7832 JP)

Dream International (1126 HK): Postcard From Hong Kong, October 2025

Meeting summary with the Dream International (1126 HK) management in Hong Kong. Recent share pullback values stock at ~8.9x P/E with a ~6.2%...

Sameer Taneja

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Nomura Research Institute and Ryohin Keikaku replace Nippon Paper and DIC in the Nikkei 225. Fast Retailing will be capped (and probably again in...

Brian Freitas

2026 High Conviction: Sell Pop Mart Intl (9992 HK)

Pop Mart’s valuation assumes enduring super-IP momentum. With Labubu hype fading and no clear second growth engine, earnings risk skews to the...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TOP TOY IPO Valuation Analysis: Is TOP TOY The Next Breakout IPO in Hong Kong?

TOP TOY, a fast-growing pop-culture collectibles brand company, is preparing for HK IPO. I have positive view of upcoming IPO and believe the...

Andrei Zakharov

Bloks Group (0325.HK): Stock Premium Is Not Justified, Growth Has Slowed, ~30% Downside

Bloks Group shares significantly underperformed over the last four months as IPO lockup expired and growth slowed in 2025. However, the stock...

Andrei Zakharov

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Dream International (1126 HK): Postcard From Hong Kong, October 2025

Meeting summary with the Dream International (1126 HK) management in Hong Kong. Recent share pullback values stock at ~8.9x P/E with a ~6.2%...

Sameer Taneja

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Nomura Research Institute and Ryohin Keikaku replace Nippon Paper and DIC in the Nikkei 225. Fast Retailing will be capped (and probably again in...

Brian Freitas

2026 High Conviction: Sell Pop Mart Intl (9992 HK)

Pop Mart’s valuation assumes enduring super-IP momentum. With Labubu hype fading and no clear second growth engine, earnings risk skews to the...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TOP TOY IPO Valuation Analysis: Is TOP TOY The Next Breakout IPO in Hong Kong?

TOP TOY, a fast-growing pop-culture collectibles brand company, is preparing for HK IPO. I have positive view of upcoming IPO and believe the...

Andrei Zakharov

Bloks Group (0325.HK): Stock Premium Is Not Justified, Growth Has Slowed, ~30% Downside

​Bloks Group shares significantly underperformed over the last four months as IPO lockup expired and growth slowed in 2025. However, the stock...

Andrei Zakharov

Bloks Group shares significantly underperformed over the last four months as IPO lockup expired and growth slowed in 2025. However, the stock...