Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Nomura Research Institute / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paper-industries-co-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:557:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s CPAF will drop from 3 to 2.7 and there will be further selling in March 2025 as the CPAF drops to 2.4 (or possibly even 2.1!) </li>
<li>Passives will need to buy 7-15x ADV (13-14% of real float) in the adds and sell 2.7-6.5x ADV in the deletes. There is a big reverse funding trade too.</li>
</ul>



Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP) and Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) will replace Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP) and Dic Corp (4631 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). 

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s CPAF will drop from 3 to 2.7 and there will be further selling in March 2025 as the CPAF drops to 2.4 (or possibly even 2.1!) 
Passives will need to buy 7-15x ADV (13-14% of real float) in the adds and sell 2.7-6.5x ADV in the deletes. There is a big reverse funding trade too.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities fell this week, with the Nikkei losing 2% and Topix down 1.8%.</li>
<li>Japan’s entertainment stocks have been on a tear over the past six months, and there’s little sign of momentum fading. </li>
<li>Japan’s economy is heating up, and markets are taking notice. The 10-year bond yield has climbed to 1.29%, the highest in 14 years</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities fell this week, with the Nikkei losing 2% and Topix down 1.8%.
Japan’s entertainment stocks have been on a tear over the past six months, and there’s little sign of momentum fading. 
Japan’s economy is heating up, and markets are taking notice. The 10-year bond yield has climbed to 1.29%, the highest in 14 years


Japan Strategy Weekly | The Entertainment Boom

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (1850960D CH)</a> is looking to raise US$187m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Bloks Groups (Bloks) operates in the toy segment where it primarily assembles character and brick-based toys.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Bloks Group (1850960D CH) is looking to raise US$187m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Bloks Groups (Bloks) operates in the toy segment where it primarily assembles character and brick-based toys.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


Bloks Group IPO Trading - Strongest HK IPO Demand in Recent Years

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Bloks Group, a founder-led toy maker and owner of trusted brand “Blokees”, will price its IPO this week. Shares are set to begin trading on January 10, 2025.</li>
<li>I would expect strong first trading-day return as HK public offering was already 5,000+ times oversubscribed at high end of marketed price range.</li>
<li>I believe investors are rationally optimistic about the company. Bloks Group IPO attracted a surge of retail investors, and the stock may skyrocket above IPO price on first trading-day.</li>
</ul>


Bloks Group, a founder-led toy maker and owner of trusted brand “Blokees”, will price its IPO this week. Shares are set to begin trading on January 10, 2025.
I would expect strong first trading-day return as HK public offering was already 5,000+ times oversubscribed at high end of marketed price range.
I believe investors are rationally optimistic about the company. Bloks Group IPO attracted a surge of retail investors, and the stock may skyrocket above IPO price on first trading-day.


Bloks Group Likely To Price IPO at High End of Range: What To Expect From First Trading-Day?

Japan

Bandai Namco Holdings Inc is a holding company established through merger of Bandai and Namco.  The Group manufactures toys, stuffed animals, character goods, video games, commercial- and home-use game equipment and software. Namco Bandai also operates video game arcades and theme parks.

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Bandai Namco Holdings (7832 JP)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Nomura Research Institute and Ryohin Keikaku replace Nippon Paper and DIC in the Nikkei 225. Fast Retailing will be capped (and probably again in...

Brian Freitas

Japan Strategy Weekly | The Entertainment Boom

Japanese equities fell this week, but Japan's entertainment stocks continue to surge amid a heating economy and rising bond yields.

Mark Chadwick

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

Bloks Group IPO Trading - Strongest HK IPO Demand in Recent Years

Bloks Group (1850960D CH) is looking to raise US$187m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Clarence Chu

Bloks Group Likely To Price IPO at High End of Range: What To Expect From First Trading-Day?

Bloks Group will go public this week. In my insight, I discuss expectations from first trading-day and how far Bloks Group stock may go up in a...

Andrei Zakharov

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Nomura Research Institute and Ryohin Keikaku replace Nippon Paper and DIC in the Nikkei 225. Fast Retailing will be capped (and probably again in...

Brian Freitas

Japan Strategy Weekly | The Entertainment Boom

​Japanese equities fell this week, but Japan's entertainment stocks continue to surge amid a heating economy and rising bond yields.

Mark Chadwick

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

Bloks Group IPO Trading - Strongest HK IPO Demand in Recent Years

Bloks Group (1850960D CH) is looking to raise US$187m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Clarence Chu

Bloks Group Likely To Price IPO at High End of Range: What To Expect From First Trading-Day?

Bloks Group will go public this week. In my insight, I discuss expectations from first trading-day and how far Bloks Group stock may go up in a...

Andrei Zakharov

Japanese equities fell this week, but Japan's entertainment stocks continue to surge amid a heating economy and rising bond yields.