Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we examine the key challenges facing the sector and discuss potential paths forward for MFI-focused lenders. </li>
<li>Companies in this sector have seen sharp declines, with stocks down 45% from their 52-week highs and showing negative returns of -37% YTD.</li>
<li>Considering the Industry data, it would be fair to conclude that the pain in the industry is likely to persist.  CREDAG, SPANDANA, AUBANK, and IIB are key names to watch.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we examine the key challenges facing the sector and discuss potential paths forward for MFI-focused lenders. 
Companies in this sector have seen sharp declines, with stocks down 45% from their 52-week highs and showing negative returns of -37% YTD.
Considering the Industry data, it would be fair to conclude that the pain in the industry is likely to persist.  CREDAG, SPANDANA, AUBANK, and IIB are key names to watch.


Navigating MFI Consumer Credit Exuberance - A Rocky Road Head

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

CG Power and Industrial Solutions / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 4 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>From the new listings, 4 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 3 stocks to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.</li>
<li>There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in March.</li>
</ul>


We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 4 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 4 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 3 stocks to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in March.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2024): Recent Large IPOs Lead to Big Downward Shift

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Our positive focus remains on three smaller cap Indian banks, namely Bandhan, Baroda and Union Bank of India (UBI); we stay negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra</li>
<li>Bandhan has its NPL challenges, but its pre-provision returns have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains our favourite and UBI has delivered better profitability and credit quality</li>
<li>Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns continue to erode; ICICI is on premium valuations and we expect credit costs to go higher</li>
</ul>


Our positive focus remains on three smaller cap Indian banks, namely Bandhan, Baroda and Union Bank of India (UBI); we stay negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra
Bandhan has its NPL challenges, but its pre-provision returns have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains our favourite and UBI has delivered better profitability and credit quality
Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns continue to erode; ICICI is on premium valuations and we expect credit costs to go higher


Indian Banks Screener: Stick with Buys on Select, Value Based Smaller Caps

<ul>
<li>We continue our earnings coverage highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention in the conference calls.</li>
<li>For this edition we focus on select Banking names like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN); </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rbl-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22856:1" rel="noopener">RBL Bank Ltd (RBK IN)</a>.</li>
<li>We are bearish on most names except <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We continue our earnings coverage highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention in the conference calls.
For this edition we focus on select Banking names like HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN); Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN); RBL Bank Ltd (RBK IN).
We are bearish on most names except Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) and Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN). 


Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Banking Special

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 indices in the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect six ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 and six ADDs/DELs for BSE 200.</li>
<li>Zomato is one of the six BSE 100 expected DELs but its fate will depend on when its expected F&amp;O list inclusion takes place and the index provider's discretionary choices.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 indices in the December 2024 index rebal event.
We expect six ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 and six ADDs/DELs for BSE 200.
Zomato is one of the six BSE 100 expected DELs but its fate will depend on when its expected F&amp;O list inclusion takes place and the index provider's discretionary choices.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations + Zomato Question Mark

India

Bandhan Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Bank provides accounts checking, savings deposits, money market, mortgage, and term loans services, as well as card facilities and Internet banking services. Bandhan Bank serves customers in India.

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Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)

Navigating MFI Consumer Credit Exuberance - A Rocky Road Head

The Pain in Consumer Leverage is now showing up in the earnings. "CreditAccess Grameen has revised its guidance for FY25 for the second time in...

Pranav Bhavsar

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2024): Recent Large IPOs Lead to Big Downward Shift

There could be 33 migrations in January, 4 new listings in LargeCap, 3 in MidCap and multiple in SmallCap. Some of the AMFI changes will have...

Brian Freitas

Indian Banks Screener: Stick with Buys on Select, Value Based Smaller Caps

We stick with our value relative to returns based calls on Indian banks. Positive on smaller caps Baroda, Bandhan, UBI; negative on ICICI Bank and...

Victor Galliano

Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Banking Special

We cover key earnings and conference call highlights for select Banking names, with a bearish outlook on most except for Axis Bank Ltd and Bandhan...

Pranav Bhavsar

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations + Zomato Question Mark

The reference period ends today (31st October). Our BSE 100 expected ADDs/DELs remain unchanged. For BSE 200, all expected ADDs/DELs mentioned in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Navigating MFI Consumer Credit Exuberance - A Rocky Road Head

The Pain in Consumer Leverage is now showing up in the earnings. "CreditAccess Grameen has revised its guidance for FY25 for the second time in...

Pranav Bhavsar

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2024): Recent Large IPOs Lead to Big Downward Shift

There could be 33 migrations in January, 4 new listings in LargeCap, 3 in MidCap and multiple in SmallCap. Some of the AMFI changes will have...

Brian Freitas

Indian Banks Screener: Stick with Buys on Select, Value Based Smaller Caps

​We stick with our value relative to returns based calls on Indian banks. Positive on smaller caps Baroda, Bandhan, UBI; negative on ICICI Bank and...

Victor Galliano

Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Banking Special

We cover key earnings and conference call highlights for select Banking names, with a bearish outlook on most except for Axis Bank Ltd and Bandhan...

Pranav Bhavsar

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations + Zomato Question Mark

The reference period ends today (31st October). Our BSE 100 expected ADDs/DELs remain unchanged. For BSE 200, all expected ADDs/DELs mentioned in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

We stick with our value relative to returns based calls on Indian banks. Positive on smaller caps Baroda, Bandhan, UBI; negative on ICICI Bank and...

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations + Zomato Question Mark