Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,105/1,100 points and the resistance at 1,123/1,130 points.</li><li>The technical signals remain in a downtrend, and the index could decline further to 1,094 points (the gap opened on April 9) or even 1,056 points (the year’s low), respectively.</li><li>External factors remain slightly negative. Although the Israel-Iran war has not escalated, concerns persist after President Trump called for an evacuation from Tehran. </li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,105/1,100 points and the resistance at 1,123/1,130 points.The technical signals remain in a downtrend, and the index could decline further to 1,094 points (the gap opened on April 9) or even 1,056 points (the year’s low), respectively.External factors remain slightly negative. Although the Israel-Iran war has not escalated, concerns persist after President Trump called for an evacuation from Tehran. 

KTX Zoom: Trump Calls for an Evacuation from Tehran; All Eyes on BoJ Meeting

<ul><li>The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran has driven crude oil prices higher due to concerns over potential supply disruptions.</li><li>However, we assess this to be a short-term impact, as the oil market remains in a state of oversupply.</li><li>Historically, the SET Index tends to respond positively during the first 10-12 days following such geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, moving in line with rising crude oil prices. </li></ul>

The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran has driven crude oil prices higher due to concerns over potential supply disruptions.However, we assess this to be a short-term impact, as the oil market remains in a state of oversupply.Historically, the SET Index tends to respond positively during the first 10-12 days following such geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, moving in line with rising crude oil prices. 

Special Report: Tensions Flare in the Middle East JUNE 16, 2025

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,114/1,105 points and the resistance at 1,130/1,135 points.</li><li>The technical signals remain in a downtrend (last week showed potential for a rebound, but the index failed to break above 1,144 points).</li><li>If the index falls below 1,114 points, it will reflect downside risk toward 1,094 points (the gap opened on April 9) or even 1,056 points (the year’s low).</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,114/1,105 points and the resistance at 1,130/1,135 points.The technical signals remain in a downtrend (last week showed potential for a rebound, but the index failed to break above 1,144 points).If the index falls below 1,114 points, it will reflect downside risk toward 1,094 points (the gap opened on April 9) or even 1,056 points (the year’s low).

KTX Zoom: Risk-Off Sentiment Emerging Due to the Middle East War, Weighing on Risk Assets

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the close on 30 June.</li>
<li>Capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.</li>
<li>Positioning appears to be a lot smaller in the adds compared to the deletes. There could be buying in the deletes on a drop in the stock price.</li>
</ul>


In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 30 June.
Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
Positioning appears to be a lot smaller in the adds compared to the deletes. There could be buying in the deletes on a drop in the stock price.


SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes in Two Weeks; DELTA Capping Too

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we present our final expectations for ADDs/DELs for the index rebal event in June 2025.</li>
<li>We expect three ADDs and three DELs for June 2025.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we present our final expectations for ADDs/DELs for the index rebal event in June 2025.
We expect three ADDs and three DELs for June 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: Final Expectations; 3 Changes Expected + Delta Capping

Thailand

Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited operates as an energy company. The Company offers petroleum exploration and production, biomass, crude oil, and solar energy. Bangchak markets its products in Thailand.

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Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)

KTX Zoom: Trump Calls for an Evacuation from Tehran; All Eyes on BoJ Meeting

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,105/1,100 points and the resistance at 1,123/1,130 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: Tensions Flare in the Middle East JUNE 16, 2025

The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran has driven crude oil prices higher due to concerns over potential...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom: Risk-Off Sentiment Emerging Due to the Middle East War, Weighing on Risk Assets

The technical signals remain in a downtrend (last week showed potential for a rebound, but the index failed to break above 1,144 points).

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes in Two Weeks; DELTA Capping Too

There are 4 changes, plus DELTA capping. Impact on the adds is bigger and positioning appears smaller. The deletes are down a lot and there could...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: Final Expectations; 3 Changes Expected + Delta Capping

The three expected ADDs have outperformed the three expected DELs over the last 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year periods. This could continue over the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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