Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Private consumption has continued to expand, aligning well with growth in the service sector.</li><li>However, despite some economic recoveries in trade partner countries, exports have not shown full growth potential (Figure 1).</li><li>Consequently, the Thai MPI has experienced a continuous decline on a YoY basis for 17 consecutive months (Figure 2).</li></ul>

Private consumption has continued to expand, aligning well with growth in the service sector.However, despite some economic recoveries in trade partner countries, exports have not shown full growth potential (Figure 1).Consequently, the Thai MPI has experienced a continuous decline on a YoY basis for 17 consecutive months (Figure 2).

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the halfway mark in the review period, we see 3 potential changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.2-4.5 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell 0.9-1.3 days of ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> continues to be a close add on liquidity while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> continue to be close deletes.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the halfway mark in the review period, we see 3 potential changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.2-4.5 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell 0.9-1.3 days of ADV on the deletions.

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) continues to be a close add on liquidity while Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB) and Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) continue to be close deletes.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in June

<ul><li>We maintain a neutral view on the possibility of increasing the retail diesel price ceiling within the range of Bt1-2/liter to Bt31-32/liter due to the negative financial position of the Oil Fuel Fund, which stands at nearly -Bt100bn, and the need for excise tax collection by the Ministry of Finance to meet the target.</li><li>While an upward adjustment to the retail diesel price ceiling could yield short-term benefits for oil retailers in the form of one-time stock gains, challenges persist for marketing margins, including i) the incremental costs associated with the Euro 5 standard for refined oil products; and ii) the management efficiency of the Oil Fuel Fund.</li><li>Therefore, we maintain our conservative view on marketing margins in 2024E. For the downstream sector, we prefer refinery operators to oil retailers, with TOP as the top pick (Outperform; FV: Bt62.4). </li></ul>

We maintain a neutral view on the possibility of increasing the retail diesel price ceiling within the range of Bt1-2/liter to Bt31-32/liter due to the negative financial position of the Oil Fuel Fund, which stands at nearly -Bt100bn, and the need for excise tax collection by the Ministry of Finance to meet the target.While an upward adjustment to the retail diesel price ceiling could yield short-term benefits for oil retailers in the form of one-time stock gains, challenges persist for marketing margins, including i) the incremental costs associated with the Euro 5 standard for refined oil products; and ii) the management efficiency of the Oil Fuel Fund.Therefore, we maintain our conservative view on marketing margins in 2024E. For the downstream sector, we prefer refinery operators to oil retailers, with TOP as the top pick (Outperform; FV: Bt62.4). 

Energy (Oil Retailers) - Scenarios for a Diesel Price Lift

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>The 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings started on 1st March 2024 and as things stand, there could be three ADDs/DELs in June 2024.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
The 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings started on 1st March 2024 and as things stand, there could be three ADDs/DELs in June 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Reference Period Begins; Three Changes Likely; Some Trade Ideas

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 118% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 23%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 118% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 23%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 44

Thailand

Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited operates as an energy company. The Company offers petroleum exploration and production, biomass, crude oil, and solar energy. Bangchak markets its products in Thailand.

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Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)

Ktx Ahead - April 9, 2024

Private consumption has continued to expand, aligning well with growth in the service sector. However, despite some economic recoveries in trade...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in June

There could be 3 changes for the SET50 Index in June. There are a few stocks that are close adds/deletes on liquidity and that will need to be...

Brian Freitas

Energy (Oil Retailers) - Scenarios for a Diesel Price Lift

We maintain a neutral view on the possibility of increasing the retail diesel price ceiling within the range of Bt1-2/liter to Bt31-32/liter due to...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Reference Period Begins; Three Changes Likely; Some Trade Ideas

Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB) could outperform Aeon Thana Sinsap Thailand (AEONTS TB) and Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB) could outperform IRPC PCL...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 44

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

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