Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were index review announcements for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, HSCI, HSIII and some global indices last week.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of review cutoffs early in the coming week followed by announcements for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and STAR100 Index later in the week.</li>
<li>Another week of outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share ETF (2828 HK)</a> as inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US)</a> continue.</li>
</ul>


There were index review announcements for the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH, HSCI, HSIII and some global indices last week.
There are a bunch of review cutoffs early in the coming week followed by announcements for the STAR50 INDEX and STAR100 Index later in the week.
Another week of outflows for Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) and Hang Seng H Share ETF (2828 HK) as inflows to iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) continue.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

<ul>
<li>Early days, but there could be three changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index</a> at the June rebalance. Two names are reversals of the December changes.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.5-3.6 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell 1.1-1.4 days of ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>There are a couple of stocks that are close to passing/failing the liquidity tests and a couple close to cutoff ranks. That could result in further changes to the index.</li>
</ul>


Early days, but there could be three changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index at the June rebalance. Two names are reversals of the December changes.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.5-3.6 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell 1.1-1.4 days of ADV on the deletions.
There are a couple of stocks that are close to passing/failing the liquidity tests and a couple close to cutoff ranks. That could result in further changes to the index.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in June

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The MPC's softer outlook for 2024E GDP growth, now projected within the range of 2.5-3.0%, will provide more leeway for the committee to maintain the policy interest rate above inflation, thereby ensuring a positive real interest rate.</li><li>Considering i) the current real interest rate at 3.6% (Thai policy rate at 2.5%, CPI at -1.1% YoY), the highest in 32 months and higher than the US real interest rate at 2.1% (US policy rate at 5.5% and CPI at +3.4% YoY); ii) the uncertain outlook for the Digital Wallet scheme, which may prevent Thai GDP growth in 2024E from reaching its full potential level; and iii) the divided vote (five to two) in the most recent meeting, there is a possibility that the MPC may reduce the policy interest rate in the future to stimulate the economy and bring economic growth back to its potential level.</li><li>This scenario would be positive for high dividend plays (BCP, PTT, TOP, WHAUP, SABINA and ADVANC) and the finance sector (SAWAD, MTC and TIDLOR) (Figure 9).</li></ul>

The MPC's softer outlook for 2024E GDP growth, now projected within the range of 2.5-3.0%, will provide more leeway for the committee to maintain the policy interest rate above inflation, thereby ensuring a positive real interest rate.Considering i) the current real interest rate at 3.6% (Thai policy rate at 2.5%, CPI at -1.1% YoY), the highest in 32 months and higher than the US real interest rate at 2.1% (US policy rate at 5.5% and CPI at +3.4% YoY); ii) the uncertain outlook for the Digital Wallet scheme, which may prevent Thai GDP growth in 2024E from reaching its full potential level; and iii) the divided vote (five to two) in the most recent meeting, there is a possibility that the MPC may reduce the policy interest rate in the future to stimulate the economy and bring economic growth back to its potential level.This scenario would be positive for high dividend plays (BCP, PTT, TOP, WHAUP, SABINA and ADVANC) and the finance sector (SAWAD, MTC and TIDLOR) (Figure 9).

Economic Update: MPC Holds Policy Interest Rate at 2.5%

<ul>
<li>The adhoc <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a> rebalance and the regular Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalance will be implemented on Thursday and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> rebalance will be implemented on Friday.</li>
<li>The review cutoff period for a whole bunch of indices ends on 29 December and the announcement of the results and implementation will take place early next year.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to China ETFs and to Emerging Market ETFs including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-core-msci-emerging-mar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32967:1" rel="noopener">iShares Core Emerging Mar (IEMG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-ftse-emerging-markets-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:778:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Emerging Markets (VWO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EMXC US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The adhoc KOSDAQ 150 Index rebalance and the regular Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalance will be implemented on Thursday and the SET 50 Index rebalance will be implemented on Friday.
The review cutoff period for a whole bunch of indices ends on 29 December and the announcement of the results and implementation will take place early next year.
There were big inflows to China ETFs and to Emerging Market ETFs including iShares Core Emerging Mar (IEMG US), Vanguard Emerging Markets (VWO US) and iShares Emerging Markets (EMXC US). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, SET50, AMFI, KOSDAQ150

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the close on 29 December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 0.55% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 455m. There is nearly zero funding flow on the other index members.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy close to 1.2% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)</a>'s free float while selling around 1.6% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>. </li>
</ul>



KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB) will replace Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB) in the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 29 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 0.55% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 455m. There is nearly zero funding flow on the other index members.
Passive trackers will need to buy close to 1.2% of KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)'s free float while selling around 1.6% of float in Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB). 


SET50 Index Rebalance: KCE Replaces TIDLOR

Thailand

Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited operates as an energy company. The Company offers petroleum exploration and production, biomass, crude oil, and solar energy. Bangchak markets its products in Thailand.

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Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in June

There could be 3 changes for the SET50 in June. Big moves in liquidity could result in more changes for the index. With the index using full market...

Brian Freitas

Economic Update: MPC Holds Policy Interest Rate at 2.5%

This scenario would be positive for high dividend plays (BCP, PTT, TOP, WHAUP, SABINA and ADVANC) and the finance sector (SAWAD, MTC and TIDLOR)

Krungthai XSpring

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, SET50, AMFI, KOSDAQ150

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index Rebalance: KCE Replaces TIDLOR

As forecast, KCE will replace TIDLOR in the SET50 at the close on 29 Dec. Passives will trade around 0.8-1.1x ADV and 1.2-1.6% of float on the...

Brian Freitas

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