Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Although 1Q26 core profit beat expectations, we expect 2Q26E earnings to remain pressured by higher fuel costs before improving in 3Q26E, supported by a recovery in Samui passenger traffic and declining jet fuel prices.</li><li>We maintain our Outperform rating and 12M fair value of Bt15.20, based on 12M EV/EBITDA of 4.3x, with 9% upside and a Neutral tactical view.</li><li>BA reported 1Q26 net profit of Bt2.09bn (+25% YoY, +384% QoQ).</li></ul>

Although 1Q26 core profit beat expectations, we expect 2Q26E earnings to remain pressured by higher fuel costs before improving in 3Q26E, supported by a recovery in Samui passenger traffic and declining jet fuel prices.We maintain our Outperform rating and 12M fair value of Bt15.20, based on 12M EV/EBITDA of 4.3x, with 9% upside and a Neutral tactical view.BA reported 1Q26 net profit of Bt2.09bn (+25% YoY, +384% QoQ).

BANGKOK AIRWAYS Plc. (BA): 1Q26 Core Profit Beat Expectations...

<ul><li>BA could be negatively affected by the Middle East situation through lower passenger traffic, particularly on the Samui route (72% of fare revenue, with most passengers from Europe), as well as higher fuel costs.</li><li>We cut our 2026–28E core profit forecasts due to lower ASK, higher operating costs in aviation-related service businesses, and higher fuel cost assumptions for 2026E.</li><li>We maintain our Outperform rating but lower our 12M FV to Bt15.30 (from Bt17.30) (unchanged required return of 11%). We remain positive on fundamentals, with 9% upside and very limited tactical downside risk.</li></ul>

BA could be negatively affected by the Middle East situation through lower passenger traffic, particularly on the Samui route (72% of fare revenue, with most passengers from Europe), as well as higher fuel costs.We cut our 2026–28E core profit forecasts due to lower ASK, higher operating costs in aviation-related service businesses, and higher fuel cost assumptions for 2026E.We maintain our Outperform rating but lower our 12M FV to Bt15.30 (from Bt17.30) (unchanged required return of 11%). We remain positive on fundamentals, with 9% upside and very limited tactical downside risk.

BANGKOK AIRWAYS Plc. (BA): Earnings Revised Down To Reflect Middle East

<ul><li>4Q25 core profit beat our estimate by 11% on lower tax expenses. However, capacity constraints at Samui, its key route, will limit growth over the next two years; we forecast 2Y core EPS CAGR of just 1%, below peers.</li><li>Despite very limited tactical downside, the share price has risen 19% since our report on Jan 22, implying 7% downside to our 12M fair value of Bt17.30 (11.0% required return). We thus downgrade to Underperform (from Outperform).</li><li>Risk remains over the renewal of the second in-flight catering and ground handling concession at Suvarnabhumi Airport, expiring in 3Q26E.</li></ul>

4Q25 core profit beat our estimate by 11% on lower tax expenses. However, capacity constraints at Samui, its key route, will limit growth over the next two years; we forecast 2Y core EPS CAGR of just 1%, below peers.Despite very limited tactical downside, the share price has risen 19% since our report on Jan 22, implying 7% downside to our 12M fair value of Bt17.30 (11.0% required return). We thus downgrade to Underperform (from Outperform).Risk remains over the renewal of the second in-flight catering and ground handling concession at Suvarnabhumi Airport, expiring in 3Q26E.

BANGKOK AIRWAYS Plc. (BA): In-Line Earnings; Pending Samui Expansion

Technical Analysis

PTT Exploration & Production / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SET Index came under pressure from several negative factors, including escalating tensions in the Middle East, rising US bond yields, and a sell-off in semiconductor stocks across Asian markets.</li>
<li>We therefore expect the index to remain above 1,600 points for now.</li>
<li>We continue to recommend buying on weakness, as the index has yet to show a clear bearish signal and still has the potential to rebound.</li>
</ul>


The SET Index came under pressure from several negative factors, including escalating tensions in the Middle East, rising US bond yields, and a sell-off in semiconductor stocks across Asian markets.
We therefore expect the index to remain above 1,600 points for now.
We continue to recommend buying on weakness, as the index has yet to show a clear bearish signal and still has the potential to rebound.


Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. August 25, 2026

<ul><li>We expect 4Q25E core profit to rise YoY on lower costs but fall QoQ due to seasonality.</li><li>Valuation metrics suggest an Outperform rating, with upside of around 10% to our fair value of Bt17.30, based on a required return of 11.0% (previously Bt17.90 / 9.8%), despite very limited technical upside risk, while the stock remains attractive with a high dividend yield of 8.8%.</li><li>Key drivers for our 12-month fair value are earnings upside from lower operating costs, particularly maintenance expenses that may remain stable longer than expected.</li></ul>

We expect 4Q25E core profit to rise YoY on lower costs but fall QoQ due to seasonality.Valuation metrics suggest an Outperform rating, with upside of around 10% to our fair value of Bt17.30, based on a required return of 11.0% (previously Bt17.90 / 9.8%), despite very limited technical upside risk, while the stock remains attractive with a high dividend yield of 8.8%.Key drivers for our 12-month fair value are earnings upside from lower operating costs, particularly maintenance expenses that may remain stable longer than expected.

Bangkok Airways Plc. (BA): 4Q25E Core Profit Likely Up YoY, Down QoQ On Seasonality

Thailand

Bangkok Airways Public Company Limited is a regional airline based in Bangkok, Thailand. It operates scheduled domestic and regional flights, focusing on leisure and business travel. The company also uniquely owns and manages three airports and provides aviation-related services like ground handling, in-flight catering, and cargo terminal services. It is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1968.

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Bangkok Airways (BA TB)

BANGKOK AIRWAYS Plc. (BA): 1Q26 Core Profit Beat Expectations...

We maintain our Outperform rating and 12M fair value of Bt15.20, based on 12M EV/EBITDA of 4.3x, with 9% upside and a Neutral tactical view.

Krungthai XSpring

BANGKOK AIRWAYS Plc. (BA): Earnings Revised Down To Reflect Middle East

We cut our 2026–28E core profit forecasts due to lower ASK, higher operating costs in aviation-related service businesses, and higher fuel cost...

Krungthai XSpring

BANGKOK AIRWAYS Plc. (BA): In-Line Earnings; Pending Samui Expansion

4Q25 core profit beat our estimate by 11% on lower tax expenses. However, capacity constraints at Samui, its key route, will limit growth over the...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. August 25, 2026

The SET Index came under pressure from several negative factors, including escalating tensions in the Middle East, rising US bond yields, and a...

Krungthai XSpring

Bangkok Airways Plc. (BA): 4Q25E Core Profit Likely Up YoY, Down QoQ On Seasonality

Key drivers for our 12-month fair value are earnings upside from lower operating costs, particularly maintenance expenses that may remain stable...

Krungthai XSpring

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