Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,280/1,273 points and the resistance at 1,295 (10-day EMA)/1,300 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend, forming a rounding-top pattern within the 1,220-1,506-point range.</li><li>In the short term, the index continues its downward trajectory (zig-zag down), with signs of further weakness emerging after a three-day rebound from the new low of 1,252 points on February 7. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,280/1,273 points and the resistance at 1,295 (10-day EMA)/1,300 points.In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend, forming a rounding-top pattern within the 1,220-1,506-point range.In the short term, the index continues its downward trajectory (zig-zag down), with signs of further weakness emerging after a three-day rebound from the new low of 1,252 points on February 7. 

KTX Zoom - US Retail Sales and EU 4Q24 GDP Growth FEBRUARY 14, 2025

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Thai inflation continues to recover, keeping real interest rates the lowest in Asia, increasing the chance of maintaining interest rates.</li><li>Thai inflation rate for January (to be announced on February 5) is expected to continue accelerating.</li><li>The consensus forecasts a 1.4% YoY increase (vs. 1.2% YoY in the previous month), remaining within the target range of 1-3%. </li></ul>

Thai inflation continues to recover, keeping real interest rates the lowest in Asia, increasing the chance of maintaining interest rates.Thai inflation rate for January (to be announced on February 5) is expected to continue accelerating.The consensus forecasts a 1.4% YoY increase (vs. 1.2% YoY in the previous month), remaining within the target range of 1-3%. 

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Krung Thai remains our core value pick among the Thai banks driving its solid post-provision profitability higher, delivering double-digit ROE, a sound balance sheet and attractive PBV and PE ratios</li>
<li>Krung Thai has the highest core capital ratios as well as delivering the best ROE of the peer group, along with one of the best efficiency ratios versus its peers</li>
<li>Its share price performance has been strong, yet we believe that this positive momentum should continue as Krung Thai still has scope to narrow the valuation gap with SCBx</li>
</ul>


Krung Thai remains our core value pick among the Thai banks driving its solid post-provision profitability higher, delivering double-digit ROE, a sound balance sheet and attractive PBV and PE ratios
Krung Thai has the highest core capital ratios as well as delivering the best ROE of the peer group, along with one of the best efficiency ratios versus its peers
Its share price performance has been strong, yet we believe that this positive momentum should continue as Krung Thai still has scope to narrow the valuation gap with SCBx


Thai Banks 4Q24 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB) Is in the Early Re-Rating Stages

<ul><li>The six banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt40.3bn in 4Q24, growing 11.4% YoY but declining 6.4% QoQ, which was in line with our expectations.</li><li>KKP and SCB outperformed expectations with net profits 21% and 19% higher than anticipated, respectively, mainly due to higher-than-expected non-interest income.</li><li>We maintain an Overweight investment rating on the banking sector, supported by a trend of declining provisioning expenses and a focus on capital management, which enhances the potential for dividend increases. </li></ul>

The six banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt40.3bn in 4Q24, growing 11.4% YoY but declining 6.4% QoQ, which was in line with our expectations.KKP and SCB outperformed expectations with net profits 21% and 19% higher than anticipated, respectively, mainly due to higher-than-expected non-interest income.We maintain an Overweight investment rating on the banking sector, supported by a trend of declining provisioning expenses and a focus on capital management, which enhances the potential for dividend increases. 

Banking - In-Line 4Q24 NP; Provisions to Fall in 2025E

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>KTC has just released its 4Q24 results and presentation, with a stand out diagram on BOT debt relief measures</li>
<li>With the several measures in place by the BOT, including lowering minimum card payment, lengthening loan term and lowering rate, there are clear stresses.</li>
<li>ROA is under pressure, and part of this will be due to rising credit costs, which are up from 470bps to 610bps from FY22 to FY24</li>
</ul>


KTC has just released its 4Q24 results and presentation, with a stand out diagram on BOT debt relief measures
With the several measures in place by the BOT, including lowering minimum card payment, lengthening loan term and lowering rate, there are clear stresses.
ROA is under pressure, and part of this will be due to rising credit costs, which are up from 470bps to 610bps from FY22 to FY24


KTC - Stresses in Thailand Mass Market Credit Cards, Clear in BOT Debt Relief Measures

Thailand

Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited provides various banking and financial services including commercial, consumer, credit card, and mortgage lending, international trade financing, investment banking, and securities services.

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Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)

KTX Zoom - US Retail Sales and EU 4Q24 GDP Growth FEBRUARY 14, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,280/1,273 points and the resistance at 1,295 (10-day EMA)/1,300...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX AHEAD - February 3, 2025

Thai inflation continues to recover, keeping real interest rates the lowest in Asia, increasing the chance of maintaining interest rates.

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Banks 4Q24 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB) Is in the Early Re-Rating Stages

We emphasize Krung Thai as our core value pick among Thai banks; its strong capital ratios, healthy credit quality and premium returns warrant its...

Victor Galliano

Banking - In-Line 4Q24 NP; Provisions to Fall in 2025E

The six banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt40.3bn in 4Q24, growing 11.4% YoY but declining 6.4% QoQ, which was in line...

Krungthai XSpring

KTC - Stresses in Thailand Mass Market Credit Cards, Clear in BOT Debt Relief Measures

KTC reveals granular detail for many Bank of Thailand relief measures on consumer debt, suggesting that credit metrics are very weak, and this is...

Daniel Tabbush

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