Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We upgrade deep value Bangkok Bank to buy from neutral; it trades on a 40%+ PBV discount to SCBx and its return trends improved further alongside solid balance sheet credentials</li>
<li>TMB Thanachart’s share price has corrected versus the peer group, so its PBV valuation no longer looks so stretched especially versus SCBx; we upgrade TMB Thanachart to neutral from sell</li>
<li>Krung Thai remains a neutral, even though it is delivering on improved returns, as it is not compelling value and has been narrowing the discount with SCBx</li>
</ul>


We upgrade deep value Bangkok Bank to buy from neutral; it trades on a 40%+ PBV discount to SCBx and its return trends improved further alongside solid balance sheet credentials
TMB Thanachart’s share price has corrected versus the peer group, so its PBV valuation no longer looks so stretched especially versus SCBx; we upgrade TMB Thanachart to neutral from sell
Krung Thai remains a neutral, even though it is delivering on improved returns, as it is not compelling value and has been narrowing the discount with SCBx


Thai Banks; Bangkok Bank (SET:BBL) Is Our Deep Value Pick, TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Is Now a Neutral

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>BBL reported upbeat 3Q25 earnings of Bt14.0bn (+11% YoY, +16% QoQ), beating estimates by 27–30%, driven by strong Non-NII.</li><li>Non-NII rose 36% YoY and 33% QoQ, supported by gains from FVTPL investments of Bt5.5bn (+50% YoY, +147% QoQ) and net investment gains of Bt3.7bn (+420% YoY, +12% QoQ).</li><li>Net interest income (NII) continued to decline by 8% YoY and 3% QoQ due to lower loan volumes and a narrower NIM.</li></ul>

BBL reported upbeat 3Q25 earnings of Bt14.0bn (+11% YoY, +16% QoQ), beating estimates by 27–30%, driven by strong Non-NII.Non-NII rose 36% YoY and 33% QoQ, supported by gains from FVTPL investments of Bt5.5bn (+50% YoY, +147% QoQ) and net investment gains of Bt3.7bn (+420% YoY, +12% QoQ).Net interest income (NII) continued to decline by 8% YoY and 3% QoQ due to lower loan volumes and a narrower NIM.

BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BBL): Upbeat Earnings Lifted By Investment Gains

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SET Index came under profit-taking pressure amid sell-on-fact sentiment and position unwinding to ease overbought conditions in the banking, energy, and finance sectors.</li>
<li>We therefore recommend buying on weakness, as the index's uptrend remains intact.</li>
<li>The current pullback should be viewed as a healthy unwinding of overbought conditions in large-cap stocks.</li>
</ul>


The SET Index came under profit-taking pressure amid sell-on-fact sentiment and position unwinding to ease overbought conditions in the banking, energy, and finance sectors.
We therefore recommend buying on weakness, as the index's uptrend remains intact.
The current pullback should be viewed as a healthy unwinding of overbought conditions in large-cap stocks.


Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. July 23, 2026

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Although we expect the banking sector's 2Q26E earnings to decline due to pressure on net interest margins (NIM) and seasonal factors, we anticipate a gradual recovery in 2H26E.</li><li>We therefore maintain our <strong>Overweight</strong> stance on the banking sector.</li><li>KBANK remains our top sector pick, with an <strong>Outperform</strong> rating and a target price of Bt237.00.</li></ul>

Although we expect the banking sector's 2Q26E earnings to decline due to pressure on net interest margins (NIM) and seasonal factors, we anticipate a gradual recovery in 2H26E.We therefore maintain our Overweight stance on the banking sector.KBANK remains our top sector pick, with an Outperform rating and a target price of Bt237.00.

Banking: 2H26E Fundamentals to Improve, but Short-Term Valuations Appear Stretched - Overweight

<ul><li>The Fed's dual-track monetary policy approach amid growing stagflation concerns is expected to result in an unchanged policy rate at this meeting.</li><li>This policy mix is expected to steepen the yield curve and put downward pressure on the US dollar.</li><li>The company offers a dual growth story through its exposure to Thailand's economic recovery via ADVANC and KBANK, while also benefiting from surging demand for clean energy from data centers and AI infrastructure.</li></ul>

The Fed's dual-track monetary policy approach amid growing stagflation concerns is expected to result in an unchanged policy rate at this meeting.This policy mix is expected to steepen the yield curve and put downward pressure on the US dollar.The company offers a dual growth story through its exposure to Thailand's economic recovery via ADVANC and KBANK, while also benefiting from surging demand for clean energy from data centers and AI infrastructure.

KTX AHEAD: Kevin Warsh's First FOMC Meeting As Fed Chair

Thailand

Bangkok Bank is one of the largest commercial banks in Thailand, offering a comprehensive range of commercial and retail banking solutions. These include corporate finance, SME lending, conventional banking services, syndicated loans, debt securities underwriting, trade finance, project finance, custodial services, and various personal banking products. The bank is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1944.

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Bangkok Bank (BBL TB)

Thai Banks; Bangkok Bank (SET:BBL) Is Our Deep Value Pick, TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Is Now a Neutral

Upgraded Bangkok Bank upgraded to buy, for its deep value and improving returns, TMB Thanachart upgraded to neutral from sell; Krung Thai remains...

Victor Galliano

BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BBL): Upbeat Earnings Lifted By Investment Gains

Non-NII rose 36% YoY and 33% QoQ, supported by gains from FVTPL investments of Bt5.5bn (+50% YoY, +147% QoQ) and net investment gains of Bt3.7bn...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. July 23, 2026

The SET Index came under profit-taking pressure amid sell-on-fact sentiment and position unwinding to ease overbought conditions in the banking,...

Krungthai XSpring

Banking: 2H26E Fundamentals to Improve, but Short-Term Valuations Appear Stretched - Overweight

Although we expect the banking sector's 2Q26E earnings to decline due to pressure on net interest margins (NIM) and seasonal factors, we...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX AHEAD: Kevin Warsh's First FOMC Meeting As Fed Chair

The Fed's dual-track monetary policy approach amid growing stagflation concerns is expected to result in an unchanged policy rate at this meeting.

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Thai Banks; Bangkok Bank (SET:BBL) Is Our Deep Value Pick, TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Is Now a Neutral

​Upgraded Bangkok Bank upgraded to buy, for its deep value and improving returns, TMB Thanachart upgraded to neutral from sell; Krung Thai remains...

Victor Galliano

BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BBL): Upbeat Earnings Lifted By Investment Gains

Non-NII rose 36% YoY and 33% QoQ, supported by gains from FVTPL investments of Bt5.5bn (+50% YoY, +147% QoQ) and net investment gains of Bt3.7bn...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. July 23, 2026

The SET Index came under profit-taking pressure amid sell-on-fact sentiment and position unwinding to ease overbought conditions in the banking,...

Krungthai XSpring

Banking: 2H26E Fundamentals to Improve, but Short-Term Valuations Appear Stretched - Overweight

Although we expect the banking sector's 2Q26E earnings to decline due to pressure on net interest margins (NIM) and seasonal factors, we...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX AHEAD: Kevin Warsh's First FOMC Meeting As Fed Chair

The Fed's dual-track monetary policy approach amid growing stagflation concerns is expected to result in an unchanged policy rate at this meeting.

Krungthai XSpring

Upgraded Bangkok Bank upgraded to buy, for its deep value and improving returns, TMB Thanachart upgraded to neutral from sell; Krung Thai remains...