Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintained an Outperform rating with a 12M fair value of Bt175.80, based on PBV of 0.56x.</li><li>BBL reported 1Q26 net profit of Bt11.0bn (-13% YoY, +42% QoQ), beating our and market estimates by 20% and 10%, respectively, driven by stronger-than-expected noninterest income and lower-than-expected expenses.</li><li>Net interest income declined (-12% YoY, -4% QoQ), pressured by NIM narrowing to 2.49% (-40 bps YoY, -10 bps QoQ).</li></ul>

We maintained an Outperform rating with a 12M fair value of Bt175.80, based on PBV of 0.56x.BBL reported 1Q26 net profit of Bt11.0bn (-13% YoY, +42% QoQ), beating our and market estimates by 20% and 10%, respectively, driven by stronger-than-expected noninterest income and lower-than-expected expenses.Net interest income declined (-12% YoY, -4% QoQ), pressured by NIM narrowing to 2.49% (-40 bps YoY, -10 bps QoQ).

BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED: Earnings Beat On Non-Interest Income And Costs

<ul><li>We expect 1Q26E net profit for BBL at Bt9.15bn, down 27.5% YoY but up 18.0% QoQ.</li><li>BBL announced a 2H25 dividend of Bt8.0/share (yield ~4.8%), implying a full-year payout ratio of 41%, slightly below peers, likely to support future loan growth.</li><li>BBL is well-positioned to benefit from FDI inflows, supported by its strong balance sheet, with a high coverage ratio of 324% and a relatively low loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of around 81.6%.</li></ul>

We expect 1Q26E net profit for BBL at Bt9.15bn, down 27.5% YoY but up 18.0% QoQ.BBL announced a 2H25 dividend of Bt8.0/share (yield ~4.8%), implying a full-year payout ratio of 41%, slightly below peers, likely to support future loan growth.BBL is well-positioned to benefit from FDI inflows, supported by its strong balance sheet, with a high coverage ratio of 324% and a relatively low loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of around 81.6%.

BANGKOK BANK Plc. (BBL): 1Q26E Profit To Decline YoY, But Rise QoQ...

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Total loans across the eight banks grew 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YTD, with the recovery still led by KTB and KBANK.</li><li>We maintain our Overweight rating on the banking sector, supported by ongoing balance-sheet management through both loan expansion and capital management, which should support medium-term ROE and the potential for high dividend payouts.</li><li>We retain KBANK (Outperform, TP Bt250) as our Top Pick, underpinned by strong loan growth and non-NII prospects, along with the potential for a special dividend from the remaining share-buyback budget.</li></ul>

Total loans across the eight banks grew 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YTD, with the recovery still led by KTB and KBANK.We maintain our Overweight rating on the banking sector, supported by ongoing balance-sheet management through both loan expansion and capital management, which should support medium-term ROE and the potential for high dividend payouts.We retain KBANK (Outperform, TP Bt250) as our Top Pick, underpinned by strong loan growth and non-NII prospects, along with the potential for a special dividend from the remaining share-buyback budget.

Banking: Loan Growth Continues, but the Recovery Remains Concentrated - Overweight

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a revised fair value of Bt180, based on 0.57x PBV (from Bt180.50 and 0.56x PBV).</li><li>Upside is limited at ~5%, with very limited tactical upside as PBV trades near +2 SD of its 180-day average, while long-term earnings growth is in line with peers at ~2% CAGR over 2026–28E.</li><li>BBL reported 4Q25 net profit of Bt7.8bn (–25.4% YoY, –43.7% QoQ), about 30% below our expectations due to weaker Non-NII and higher expenses.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating with a revised fair value of Bt180, based on 0.57x PBV (from Bt180.50 and 0.56x PBV).Upside is limited at ~5%, with very limited tactical upside as PBV trades near +2 SD of its 180-day average, while long-term earnings growth is in line with peers at ~2% CAGR over 2026–28E.BBL reported 4Q25 net profit of Bt7.8bn (–25.4% YoY, –43.7% QoQ), about 30% below our expectations due to weaker Non-NII and higher expenses.

BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BBL): Earnings Miss On Weaker Non-NII And Higher Costs

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>We turn cautious on our sole positive Thai recommendation Bangkok Bank, downgrading it to neutral from buy, despite its very attractive value attributes</li>
<li>We believe that Thailand’s unilateral suspension of the peace accord in the Thailand-Cambodia conflict is likely to be negative for sentiment towards Thai equities, including banks, in the short term</li>
<li>Consequently, in the worsening investor climate, we do not expect Bangkok Bank shares to benefit from a re-rating over the short term</li>
</ul>


We turn cautious on our sole positive Thai recommendation Bangkok Bank, downgrading it to neutral from buy, despite its very attractive value attributes
We believe that Thailand’s unilateral suspension of the peace accord in the Thailand-Cambodia conflict is likely to be negative for sentiment towards Thai equities, including banks, in the short term
Consequently, in the worsening investor climate, we do not expect Bangkok Bank shares to benefit from a re-rating over the short term


Bangkok Bank (SET:BBL) Downgraded on Thailand-Cambodia Suspension of Peace Accord

Thailand

Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited is one of Thailand's largest commercial banks, offering a comprehensive range of commercial and retail banking solutions. These services include corporate finance, SME lending, conventional banking, syndicated loans, trade finance, personal loans, and digital banking services. The bank is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1944.

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Bangkok Bank (BBL/F TB)

BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED: Earnings Beat On Non-Interest Income And Costs

We maintained an Outperform rating with a 12M fair value of Bt175.80, based on PBV of 0.56x.BBL reported 1Q26 net profit of Bt11.0bn (-13% YoY,...

Krungthai XSpring

BANGKOK BANK Plc. (BBL): 1Q26E Profit To Decline YoY, But Rise QoQ...

BBL announced a 2H25 dividend of Bt8.0/share (yield ~4.8%), implying a full-year payout ratio of 41%, slightly below peers, likely to support...

Krungthai XSpring

Banking: Loan Growth Continues, but the Recovery Remains Concentrated - Overweight

Total loans across the eight banks grew 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YTD, with the recovery still led by KTB and KBANK. We maintain our Overweight rating on...

Krungthai XSpring

BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BBL): Earnings Miss On Weaker Non-NII And Higher Costs

BBL reported 4Q25 net profit of Bt7.8bn (–25.4% YoY, –43.7% QoQ), about 30% below our expectations due to weaker Non-NII and higher expenses.

Krungthai XSpring

Bangkok Bank (SET:BBL) Downgraded on Thailand-Cambodia Suspension of Peace Accord

We turn cautious on Bangkok Bank, downgrading it to neutral from buy; Thailand’s suspension of the peace accord in the conflict with Cambodia is...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED: Earnings Beat On Non-Interest Income And Costs

We maintained an Outperform rating with a 12M fair value of Bt175.80, based on PBV of 0.56x.BBL reported 1Q26 net profit of Bt11.0bn (-13% YoY,...

Krungthai XSpring

BANGKOK BANK Plc. (BBL): 1Q26E Profit To Decline YoY, But Rise QoQ...

BBL announced a 2H25 dividend of Bt8.0/share (yield ~4.8%), implying a full-year payout ratio of 41%, slightly below peers, likely to support...

Krungthai XSpring

Banking: Loan Growth Continues, but the Recovery Remains Concentrated - Overweight

Total loans across the eight banks grew 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YTD, with the recovery still led by KTB and KBANK. We maintain our Overweight rating on...

Krungthai XSpring

BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BBL): Earnings Miss On Weaker Non-NII And Higher Costs

BBL reported 4Q25 net profit of Bt7.8bn (–25.4% YoY, –43.7% QoQ), about 30% below our expectations due to weaker Non-NII and higher expenses.

Krungthai XSpring

Bangkok Bank (SET:BBL) Downgraded on Thailand-Cambodia Suspension of Peace Accord

​We turn cautious on Bangkok Bank, downgrading it to neutral from buy; Thailand’s suspension of the peace accord in the conflict with Cambodia is...

Victor Galliano

We turn cautious on Bangkok Bank, downgrading it to neutral from buy; Thailand’s suspension of the peace accord in the conflict with Cambodia is...