Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

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Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

Bangkok Chain Hospital / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We retain our HOLD rating with a TP of Bt21.00, after roll over to 24.7xPE’23E (bottom level before the pandemic lockdown). Although, we expect 2H22 earnings trend to slow down</li>
<li>2H22 earnings momentum to slowdown We expect 2H22 earnings momentum to drop HoH due to declining COVID-related revenue, following lower number of infection patients in tandem with the Thai government </li>
<li>We believe there are downside risk to COVID related sales, arising from 1.1m unsold doses (total 2.26m) of Moderna vaccines. Given the lower number of infected patients, the demand slowdown </li>
</ul>


We retain our HOLD rating with a TP of Bt21.00, after roll over to 24.7xPE’23E (bottom level before the pandemic lockdown). Although, we expect 2H22 earnings trend to slow down
2H22 earnings momentum to slowdown We expect 2H22 earnings momentum to drop HoH due to declining COVID-related revenue, following lower number of infection patients in tandem with the Thai government 
We believe there are downside risk to COVID related sales, arising from 1.1m unsold doses (total 2.26m) of Moderna vaccines. Given the lower number of infected patients, the demand slowdown 


<ul>
<li>Downgrade to HOLD from BUY rating with a TP of Bt21, derived from 13.4xPE’22E due to limited upside. Despite weakening earnings momentum in 2H22</li>
<li>2Q22 earnings result came out as expected BCH’s 2Q22 net profit came in at Bt1.1bn, flat YoY but decrease 44%QoQ, which was in-line with our projection.</li>
<li>Earnings momentum to slide down in 2H22 We believe 2H22 earnings trend to fall both YoY and HoH,pressure by pandemic-related contribution normalizing off high base in 2H21 and first half </li>
</ul>


Downgrade to HOLD from BUY rating with a TP of Bt21, derived from 13.4xPE’22E due to limited upside. Despite weakening earnings momentum in 2H22
2Q22 earnings result came out as expected BCH’s 2Q22 net profit came in at Bt1.1bn, flat YoY but decrease 44%QoQ, which was in-line with our projection.
Earnings momentum to slide down in 2H22 We believe 2H22 earnings trend to fall both YoY and HoH,pressure by pandemic-related contribution normalizing off high base in 2H21 and first half 


BCH : 2Q22 Earnings In-Line with Estimate

<ul>
<li>Upgrade to BUY from HOLD rating with an unchanged TP of B21.00, based on 14.36xPE’22E which is close to -2SD of 3-years trailing average.</li>
<li>We see earnings trend to fall QoQ in 2Q22, as COVID-19 contribution fades in parallel with declining infection patients cases and dropped RT-PCR test for vaccinated tourists.</li>
<li>We view profit trend to drop HoH in 2H22, as COVID-revenue normalizes YoY off high base in 2H21 based on our expectation government declares COVID as endemic in July.</li>
</ul>


Upgrade to BUY from HOLD rating with an unchanged TP of B21.00, based on 14.36xPE’22E which is close to -2SD of 3-years trailing average.
We see earnings trend to fall QoQ in 2Q22, as COVID-19 contribution fades in parallel with declining infection patients cases and dropped RT-PCR test for vaccinated tourists.
We view profit trend to drop HoH in 2H22, as COVID-revenue normalizes YoY off high base in 2H21 based on our expectation government declares COVID as endemic in July.


BCH: Turning Back to Core Operation Post 1Q22 Peak

<ul>
<li>Reiterate HOLD rating with a TP of B21.00 derived from 14.36xPE’22E, which is close to -2SD of 3-years trailing average.Despite significant drop in 2022E earnings, we recommend a trading approach </li>
<li>We estimate 1Q22E earnings to be the peak quarter at Bt2.3bn (+613%YoY,-7%QoQ), supported by YoY rise in COVID-revenue, but QoQ decline by margin erosion.</li>
<li>We foresee earnings momentum to weaken in 2Q22, underscored by lower COVID-19 contribution, resulting from falling infection patients and stopped RT-PCR requirement.</li>
</ul>


Reiterate HOLD rating with a TP of B21.00 derived from 14.36xPE’22E, which is close to -2SD of 3-years trailing average.Despite significant drop in 2022E earnings, we recommend a trading approach 
We estimate 1Q22E earnings to be the peak quarter at Bt2.3bn (+613%YoY,-7%QoQ), supported by YoY rise in COVID-revenue, but QoQ decline by margin erosion.
We foresee earnings momentum to weaken in 2Q22, underscored by lower COVID-19 contribution, resulting from falling infection patients and stopped RT-PCR requirement.


<ul>
<li>Maintain HOLD rating with a TP of B21.00, based on 14.36xPE’22E, which is close to -2SD of 3-years trading average. Despite expected 43% drop in 22E earnings,rising Omicron cases coupled </li>
<li>Its 4Q21 earnings was at Bt2.5bn (+791% YoY,-14%QoQ), suppressed QoQ upon weak  revenue growth, caused by lower Covid-related revenue.</li>
<li>BCH’s 2021 earnings was at Bt6.8bn, grew 454%YoY, attributed to solid revenue growth (+139%YoY) and margin expansion (+17ppts), upon higher Covid-contribution.</li>
</ul>


Maintain HOLD rating with a TP of B21.00, based on 14.36xPE’22E, which is close to -2SD of 3-years trading average. Despite expected 43% drop in 22E earnings,rising Omicron cases coupled 
Its 4Q21 earnings was at Bt2.5bn (+791% YoY,-14%QoQ), suppressed QoQ upon weak  revenue growth, caused by lower Covid-related revenue.
BCH’s 2021 earnings was at Bt6.8bn, grew 454%YoY, attributed to solid revenue growth (+139%YoY) and margin expansion (+17ppts), upon higher Covid-contribution.


BCH: Good Value but Limited Room for Growth

Thailand

Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited operates a network of private hospitals and polyclinics across Thailand and in the Lao People's Democratic Republic, providing primary to tertiary medical services. These services encompass diagnosis, treatment, prevention, and rehabilitation for various conditions, including heart disease, eye ailments, and cancer. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Nonthaburi, Thailand.

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Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB)

BCH : 2H22 Earnings to Slowdown

We retain our HOLD rating with a TP of Bt21.00, after roll over to 24.7xPE’23E (bottom level before the pandemic lockdown). Although, we expect...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCH : 2Q22 Earnings In-Line with Estimate

Downgrade to HOLD from BUY rating with a TP of Bt21, derived from 13.4xPE’22E due to limited upside. Despite weakening earnings momentum in 2H22,...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCH: Turning Back to Core Operation Post 1Q22 Peak

Upgrade to BUY from HOLD rating with an unchanged TP of B21.00, based on 14.36xPE’22E which is close to -2SD of 3-years trailing average.

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCH: Solid Start Expected in 1Q22

Reiterate HOLD rating with a TP of B21.00 derived from 14.36xPE’22E, which is close to -2SD of 3-years trailing average. Despite significant drop...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCH: Good Value but Limited Room for Growth

Maintain HOLD rating with a TP of B21.00, based on 14.36xPE’22E, which is close to -2SD of 3-years trading average. Despite expected 43% drop in...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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