Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

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Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

Bangkok Chain Hospital / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We retain our HOLD rating with a new target price of Bt20.00, derived from 25xPE’22E, its bottom level before the pandemic lockdown.Our neutral view is supported by intact organic growth</li>
<li>A beacon of light in 4Q22 and onwardsWe expect 4Q22 earnings momentum to drop YoY off last year’s high base,but rebound QoQ from a net loss of Bt403m in 3Q22.</li>
<li>SSO segment (35% of 2Q22 sales) will benefit from a rising number of insurers, currently at 1m insured people (15% above pre-COVID) out of the 1.52m quota</li>
</ul>


We retain our HOLD rating with a new target price of Bt20.00, derived from 25xPE’22E, its bottom level before the pandemic lockdown.Our neutral view is supported by intact organic growth
A beacon of light in 4Q22 and onwardsWe expect 4Q22 earnings momentum to drop YoY off last year’s high base,but rebound QoQ from a net loss of Bt403m in 3Q22.
SSO segment (35% of 2Q22 sales) will benefit from a rising number of insurers, currently at 1m insured people (15% above pre-COVID) out of the 1.52m quota


BCH : March Forward with Better Core Operations

<ul>
<li>We retain our HOLD rating with a new target price of Bt20.00,derived from 25xPE’22E, its bottom level before the pandemic lockdown. Despite,the fading COVID contribution to pressure margins going forward</li>
<li>Unsold Moderna vaccines swung 3Q22to a net loss BCH posted a 3Q22 net loss of Bt403m,compared with a profit of Bt1.1bn in 2Q22 and Bt2.9bn in 3Q21.The result was in-line</li>
<li>Excluding the provision loss from devalued inventories and advance payment related to Moderna vaccines, BCH’s core profit would be Bt499m (-83%YoY, -56%QoQ).</li>
</ul>


We retain our HOLD rating with a new target price of Bt20.00,derived from 25xPE’22E, its bottom level before the pandemic lockdown. Despite,the fading COVID contribution to pressure margins going forward
Unsold Moderna vaccines swung 3Q22to a net loss BCH posted a 3Q22 net loss of Bt403m,compared with a profit of Bt1.1bn in 2Q22 and Bt2.9bn in 3Q21.The result was in-line
Excluding the provision loss from devalued inventories and advance payment related to Moderna vaccines, BCH’s core profit would be Bt499m (-83%YoY, -56%QoQ).


<ul>
<li>We retain our HOLD rating with a TP of Bt21.00, after roll over to 24.7xPE’23E (bottom level before the pandemic lockdown). Although, we expect 2H22 earnings trend to slow down</li>
<li>2H22 earnings momentum to slowdown We expect 2H22 earnings momentum to drop HoH due to declining COVID-related revenue, following lower number of infection patients in tandem with the Thai government </li>
<li>We believe there are downside risk to COVID related sales, arising from 1.1m unsold doses (total 2.26m) of Moderna vaccines. Given the lower number of infected patients, the demand slowdown </li>
</ul>


We retain our HOLD rating with a TP of Bt21.00, after roll over to 24.7xPE’23E (bottom level before the pandemic lockdown). Although, we expect 2H22 earnings trend to slow down
2H22 earnings momentum to slowdown We expect 2H22 earnings momentum to drop HoH due to declining COVID-related revenue, following lower number of infection patients in tandem with the Thai government 
We believe there are downside risk to COVID related sales, arising from 1.1m unsold doses (total 2.26m) of Moderna vaccines. Given the lower number of infected patients, the demand slowdown 


<ul>
<li>Downgrade to HOLD from BUY rating with a TP of Bt21, derived from 13.4xPE’22E due to limited upside. Despite weakening earnings momentum in 2H22</li>
<li>2Q22 earnings result came out as expected BCH’s 2Q22 net profit came in at Bt1.1bn, flat YoY but decrease 44%QoQ, which was in-line with our projection.</li>
<li>Earnings momentum to slide down in 2H22 We believe 2H22 earnings trend to fall both YoY and HoH,pressure by pandemic-related contribution normalizing off high base in 2H21 and first half </li>
</ul>


Downgrade to HOLD from BUY rating with a TP of Bt21, derived from 13.4xPE’22E due to limited upside. Despite weakening earnings momentum in 2H22
2Q22 earnings result came out as expected BCH’s 2Q22 net profit came in at Bt1.1bn, flat YoY but decrease 44%QoQ, which was in-line with our projection.
Earnings momentum to slide down in 2H22 We believe 2H22 earnings trend to fall both YoY and HoH,pressure by pandemic-related contribution normalizing off high base in 2H21 and first half 


BCH : 2Q22 Earnings In-Line with Estimate

<ul>
<li>Upgrade to BUY from HOLD rating with an unchanged TP of B21.00, based on 14.36xPE’22E which is close to -2SD of 3-years trailing average.</li>
<li>We see earnings trend to fall QoQ in 2Q22, as COVID-19 contribution fades in parallel with declining infection patients cases and dropped RT-PCR test for vaccinated tourists.</li>
<li>We view profit trend to drop HoH in 2H22, as COVID-revenue normalizes YoY off high base in 2H21 based on our expectation government declares COVID as endemic in July.</li>
</ul>


Upgrade to BUY from HOLD rating with an unchanged TP of B21.00, based on 14.36xPE’22E which is close to -2SD of 3-years trailing average.
We see earnings trend to fall QoQ in 2Q22, as COVID-19 contribution fades in parallel with declining infection patients cases and dropped RT-PCR test for vaccinated tourists.
We view profit trend to drop HoH in 2H22, as COVID-revenue normalizes YoY off high base in 2H21 based on our expectation government declares COVID as endemic in July.


BCH: Turning Back to Core Operation Post 1Q22 Peak

Thailand

Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited operates a chain of hospitals in Thailand serving both the cash and managed care markets.

Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB)

BCH : March Forward with Better Core Operations

We retain our HOLD rating with a new target price of Bt20.00, derived from 25xPE’22E, its bottom level before the pandemic lockdown. Our neutral...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCH : A Quarter to Forget

We retain our HOLD rating with a new target price of Bt20.00, derived from 25xPE’22E, its bottom level before the pandemic lockdown. Despite, the...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCH : 2H22 Earnings to Slowdown

We retain our HOLD rating with a TP of Bt21.00, after roll over to 24.7xPE’23E (bottom level before the pandemic lockdown). Although, we expect...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCH : 2Q22 Earnings In-Line with Estimate

Downgrade to HOLD from BUY rating with a TP of Bt21, derived from 13.4xPE’22E due to limited upside. Despite weakening earnings momentum in 2H22,...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCH: Turning Back to Core Operation Post 1Q22 Peak

Upgrade to BUY from HOLD rating with an unchanged TP of B21.00, based on 14.36xPE’22E which is close to -2SD of 3-years trailing average.

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand