Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We have a positive view on the BDMS’s ability to continue reducing costs, which should help maintain or even improve its high EBITDA margin, despite slower revenue growth of +4-6% YoY (in line with our estimate of +4% YoY) due to the economic slowdown.</li><li>We estimate EPS growth over the next two years at a CAGR of +5%, which is below the sector average.</li><li>We maintain the fair value at Bt23.90, based on a required return of 4.4%.</li></ul>

We have a positive view on the BDMS’s ability to continue reducing costs, which should help maintain or even improve its high EBITDA margin, despite slower revenue growth of +4-6% YoY (in line with our estimate of +4% YoY) due to the economic slowdown.We estimate EPS growth over the next two years at a CAGR of +5%, which is below the sector average.We maintain the fair value at Bt23.90, based on a required return of 4.4%.

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services - Focusing on Cost Control

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-dusit-medical-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:875:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB)</a> posted 6% rise in revenue from hospital operations in 1Q25 as International and Thai patients revenue reported growth of 11% and 4% YoY, respectively.</li>
<li>EBITDA grew at 7% YoY to THB 7.2B on higher revenues and better cost management while net profit also rose 7% to THB 4.3B on lower interest cost. Margins expand.</li>
<li>Corona surge in Thailand pose short term deterrents. Stable financial performance with strong inpatient revenue growth, healthy occupancy and largely stable EBITDA margin will be key in the long-term run.</li>
</ul>



Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB) posted 6% rise in revenue from hospital operations in 1Q25 as International and Thai patients revenue reported growth of 11% and 4% YoY, respectively.
EBITDA grew at 7% YoY to THB 7.2B on higher revenues and better cost management while net profit also rose 7% to THB 4.3B on lower interest cost. Margins expand.
Corona surge in Thailand pose short term deterrents. Stable financial performance with strong inpatient revenue growth, healthy occupancy and largely stable EBITDA margin will be key in the long-term run.


Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB): 1Q25 Stable; Resurgent Covid Might Scar 2Q

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-dusit-medical-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:875:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB)</a> reported Q3 revenue of RHB26.7 billion, up 11% YoY, driven by international and Thai patients revenue growth of 19% and 9%, YoY, respectively.</li>
<li>International patient revenues increased from a recovery of fly-in patients from Qatar (+81% YoY), China (+42% YoY), and Cambodia (+11% YoY). Moreover, Thai patient revenue was aided by seasonal epidemics.</li>
<li>BDMS has revised 2023 hospital revenue growth guidance upward to 9–10% YoY from 6–8% previously. However, EBITDA margin guidance was kept unchanged at ~24%.</li>
</ul>



Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB) reported Q3 revenue of RHB26.7 billion, up 11% YoY, driven by international and Thai patients revenue growth of 19% and 9%, YoY, respectively.
International patient revenues increased from a recovery of fly-in patients from Qatar (+81% YoY), China (+42% YoY), and Cambodia (+11% YoY). Moreover, Thai patient revenue was aided by seasonal epidemics.
BDMS has revised 2023 hospital revenue growth guidance upward to 9–10% YoY from 6–8% previously. However, EBITDA margin guidance was kept unchanged at ~24%.


Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB): Highest Ever Quarterly Sales in 3Q; 2023 Guidance Raised

<ul><li>1Q25 net profit was in line with expectations. However, the outlook remains uncertain due to a potential decline in Myanmar patient visits following the recent earthquake and slowing economic growth, which could intensify competition among mid-sized hospitals.</li><li>As a result, we project long-term EPS growth at just a CAGR of 5%, below the industry average.</li><li>We maintain our Neutral rating and the fair value at Bt23.90, based on a required return of 4.4%. </li></ul>

1Q25 net profit was in line with expectations. However, the outlook remains uncertain due to a potential decline in Myanmar patient visits following the recent earthquake and slowing economic growth, which could intensify competition among mid-sized hospitals.As a result, we project long-term EPS growth at just a CAGR of 5%, below the industry average.We maintain our Neutral rating and the fair value at Bt23.90, based on a required return of 4.4%. 

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services - In-Line 1Q25 Earnings...

<ul><li>1Q25E net profit is expected to have grown by +6% YoY, supported by increasing revenue from both Thai and international patients, offset by rising tax expenses QoQ from reduced tax benefits, likely resulting in flat net profit at -1% QoQ.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral recommendation but revise down the fair value to Bt23.90 based on a new required return of 4.4%, incorporating our new house view macro assumptions: Rf = 2.07% and MRP = 5.58% (previously Bt27.50, 3.8%, 2.27%, and 4.43%, respectively).</li><li>The valuation metrics reflect a negative view on the current fundamentals, which have been revised to undervalued (previously buy) as the stock price implies only 8% upside.</li></ul>

1Q25E net profit is expected to have grown by +6% YoY, supported by increasing revenue from both Thai and international patients, offset by rising tax expenses QoQ from reduced tax benefits, likely resulting in flat net profit at -1% QoQ.We maintain a Neutral recommendation but revise down the fair value to Bt23.90 based on a new required return of 4.4%, incorporating our new house view macro assumptions: Rf = 2.07% and MRP = 5.58% (previously Bt27.50, 3.8%, 2.27%, and 4.43%, respectively).The valuation metrics reflect a negative view on the current fundamentals, which have been revised to undervalued (previously buy) as the stock price implies only 8% upside.

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services - 1Q25E Profit Expected to Increase Slightly YoY

Thailand

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited operates Bangkok General Hospital. The Hospital specializes in cardiovascular, lung, neurological, eye and genitourinary cancer, as well as physical therapy and medical imaging.

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Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB)

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services - Focusing on Cost Control

We have a positive view on the BDMS’s ability to continue reducing costs, which should help maintain or even improve its high EBITDA margin,...

Krungthai XSpring