CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 91% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 7%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 91% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 7%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 48

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Sep 11th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD3.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Bangchak, Thai Oil, PTT GlobalChem, Indorama Ventures, Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, Thai Oil, Ptt Globalchem, Indorama Ventures, Bangchak, Kiatnakin Phatra Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Sep 11th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD3.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Bangchak, Thai Oil, PTT GlobalChem, Indorama Ventures, Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, Thai Oil, Ptt Globalchem, Indorama Ventures, Bangchak, Kiatnakin Phatra Bank.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Sep 11th): Bangchak, Thai Oil, PTT GlobalChem, Indorama Ventures

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Seven stocks remain, seven new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 126% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 34%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Seven stocks remain, seven new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 126% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 34%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 47

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>Although the market is likely to revise down EPS estimates following weaker-than- expected 3Q24 earnings, using the KTX implied EPS tool, we find that most sectors (accounting for over 80% of total market capitalization) have partially priced in the negative factors, which limits the downside risk.</li><li>In addition, the SET Index's correction of -0.8% (since the 3Q24 earnings announcements) has kept the market risk premium (MRP) stable at 4.213%, matching the lower bound of the trading buy range at an MRP of 4.21% (-1 S.D.).</li><li>This suggests that the SET is at a level where the risk-reward appears attractive. </li></ul>

Although the market is likely to revise down EPS estimates following weaker-than- expected 3Q24 earnings, using the KTX implied EPS tool, we find that most sectors (accounting for over 80% of total market capitalization) have partially priced in the negative factors, which limits the downside risk.In addition, the SET Index's correction of -0.8% (since the 3Q24 earnings announcements) has kept the market risk premium (MRP) stable at 4.213%, matching the lower bound of the trading buy range at an MRP of 4.21% (-1 S.D.).This suggests that the SET is at a level where the risk-reward appears attractive. 

Special Report: Investment Strategy Post-3Q24 Earnings Reports - NOVEMBER 21, 2024

<ul><li>KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to provide only short-term positive momentum.</li><li>However, the 2025E GDP growth outlook, projected at 2.8% (range: 2.3-3.3%), is seen as a negative guidance compared to the consensus estimate of 3.0%.</li><li>This reflects downside risks from global economic uncertainties, particularly in international trade, which is expected to be negatively impacted by Donald Trump's tariff hike policies. </li></ul>

KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to provide only short-term positive momentum.However, the 2025E GDP growth outlook, projected at 2.8% (range: 2.3-3.3%), is seen as a negative guidance compared to the consensus estimate of 3.0%.This reflects downside risks from global economic uncertainties, particularly in international trade, which is expected to be negatively impacted by Donald Trump's tariff hike policies. 

Economic Update: 3Q24 GDP Growth - Upbeat 3Q24 GDP Growth

Thailand

Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited (BEM) is a Thai public transportation company that constructs, operates, and manages expressways and rapid rail transit systems. It operates multiple metro lines and expressways in Bangkok, and also engages in commercial development activities such as retail space rental and advertising within its transportation networks. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1998, with the current entity formed by a merger in 2015.

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Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB)

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 48

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Sep 11th): Bangchak, Thai Oil, PTT GlobalChem, Indorama Ventures

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Bangchak (BCP TB), Thai Oil (TOP TB), PTT...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 47

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Seven stocks remain, seven new...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Special Report: Investment Strategy Post-3Q24 Earnings Reports - NOVEMBER 21, 2024

Listed companies reported a combined net profit (SET EPS) of Bt208bn in 3Q24, which was approximately 8.5% below the consensus estimate.

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: 3Q24 GDP Growth - Upbeat 3Q24 GDP Growth

KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to...

Krungthai XSpring

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52-week Range

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