Asian bank research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Asian bank research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Relatively newly formed, increased free float, dominant Shariah market share</li>
<li>All 9 peer Shariah banks combined have less branches than BRIS</li>
<li>57% market share of Shariah lending, where growth is highest</li>
</ul>


Relatively newly formed, increased free float, dominant Shariah market share
All 9 peer Shariah banks combined have less branches than BRIS
57% market share of Shariah lending, where growth is highest


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>We reiterate our BUY call on BSI with a new GGM-derived TP of IDR2,000 (implying 2.5x 2023F PBV) post the release of decent 1Q23 results.</li><li>Consumer financing is expected to grow by 15.9% yoy driven by the payroll-based segment.</li><li>Cost efficiency should also be a key focus for the bank until 2024F as BSI will continue to review its underperforming outlets.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We reiterate our BUY call on BSI with a new GGM-derived TP of IDR2,000 (implying 2.5x 2023F PBV) post the release of decent 1Q23 results.Consumer financing is expected to grow by 15.9% yoy driven by the payroll-based segment.Cost efficiency should also be a key focus for the bank until 2024F as BSI will continue to review its underperforming outlets.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Syariah Indonesia (BRIS IJ): Maintain Looking to Make Further Progress

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/Events/Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/Events/Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waskita-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15739:1" rel="noopener">Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harum-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1604:1" rel="noopener">Harum Energy (HRUM IJ)</a> as higher probability inclusions in the LQ45 Index.</li>
<li>Given the focus is on liquidity, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-serpong-damai-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15498:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> as higher probability deletion candidates.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We see Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ), BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) and Harum Energy (HRUM IJ) as higher probability inclusions in the LQ45 Index.
Given the focus is on liquidity, we see Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ), Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ) and AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) as higher probability deletion candidates.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) has announced a change in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jakarta-stock-exchange-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22914:1" rel="noopener">Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)</a> calculation methodology to make it a free float market cap weighted index from a full market cap weighted index. Additionally, there will be a 9% capping on the weight of a single stock in the index.The change will take place in a phased manner in 3 stages: at the beginning of October 2020, January 2021 and April 2021.The biggest beneficiaries of the change are expected to be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-indonesi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10889:1" rel="noopener">Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sarana-menara-nusantara-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6848:1" rel="noopener">Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener">Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a>.The biggest falls in index weight are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:231:1" rel="noopener">Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-permata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:728:1" rel="noopener">Bank Permata (BNLI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-brisyariah-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26981:1" rel="noopener">Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayan-resources-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8039:1" rel="noopener">Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ)</a>.Among the upweights, there could be over 2 days of ADV to trade on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-indonesi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10889:1" rel="noopener">Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)</a> while there could be over 1 day of ADV to trade on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener">Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sarana-menara-nusantara-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6848:1" rel="noopener">Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:231:1" rel="noopener">Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)</a> would be the most impacted stocks with potential outflows.

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) has announced a change in the Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX) calculation methodology to make it a free float market cap weighted index from a full market cap weighted index. Additionally, there will be a 9% capping on the weight of a single stock in the index.The change will take place in a phased manner in 3 stages: at the beginning of October 2020, January 2021 and April 2021.The biggest beneficiaries of the change are expected to be Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ), Astra International (ASII IJ), Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ), Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ), Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ), Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ), Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ), Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ) and Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ).The biggest falls in index weight are expected on Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ), Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ), Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ), Bank Permata (BNLI IJ), Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ), Emtek (EMTK IJ), Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ) and Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ).Among the upweights, there could be over 2 days of ADV to trade on Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ) and Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ) while there could be over 1 day of ADV to trade on Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ), Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ), Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ) and Astra International (ASII IJ).HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ), Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ) and Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ) would be the most impacted stocks with potential outflows.

Jakarta Composite Index: Impact of Change to Capped Free Float Weighting

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

A Smartkarma webinar with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> this week revealed a bank well-positioned to benefit from the gradual economic recovery taking place in Indonesia.
The bank has a new management team, which is focused on its 5-year corporate plan, "beyond lending", which involves more cross-selling to wholesale clients to extract value and increasing its digital banking capabilities.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> has seen significant reductions in funding costs as well as a marked improvement in its liquidity position, with a loans to deposit ratio of only 83%.
It has seen its restructured loans plateau out and provisions continue to come down, with credit costs likely to peak by end of 2020 at 3.5% before falling in 2021. 
Loan growth has started to pick up for property and auto segments but loans are still focused on working capital rather than investment as yet. 
Mobile banking has overtaken ATMs in terms of transaction value for the first time and this brings with it significant cost savings. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> will launch a super App next year to expand the scope of its digital business.
The creation of a new state-owned Syariah bank under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-brisyariah-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26981:1" rel="noopener">Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ)</a> with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> has great promise given greater scale and potentially high returns. 
From an ESG perspective <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> is aligning itself with UN Sustainable Development Goals in a wide variety of areas, with the aim of being the ESG leaderin the Indonesian banking space.
<div class="content-highlight">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> remains our top pick amongst the Indonesian banks, with a number of standout positives outline above and it more detail below the fold. The bank trades on 1.5x FY2020E PBV versus its 3-year average of 1.8x with the prospect of a strong rebound in earnings over the next two years and a rising ROE. 
</div>

A Smartkarma webinar with Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) this week revealed a bank well-positioned to benefit from the gradual economic recovery taking place in Indonesia.
The bank has a new management team, which is focused on its 5-year corporate plan, "beyond lending", which involves more cross-selling to wholesale clients to extract value and increasing its digital banking capabilities.
Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) has seen significant reductions in funding costs as well as a marked improvement in its liquidity position, with a loans to deposit ratio of only 83%.
It has seen its restructured loans plateau out and provisions continue to come down, with credit costs likely to peak by end of 2020 at 3.5% before falling in 2021. 
Loan growth has started to pick up for property and auto segments but loans are still focused on working capital rather than investment as yet. 
Mobile banking has overtaken ATMs in terms of transaction value for the first time and this brings with it significant cost savings. Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) will launch a super App next year to expand the scope of its digital business.
The creation of a new state-owned Syariah bank under Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ) with Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) has great promise given greater scale and potentially high returns. 
From an ESG perspective Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) is aligning itself with UN Sustainable Development Goals in a wide variety of areas, with the aim of being the ESG leaderin the Indonesian banking space.

Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) remains our top pick amongst the Indonesian banks, with a number of standout positives outline above and it more detail below the fold. The bank trades on 1.5x FY2020E PBV versus its 3-year average of 1.8x with the prospect of a strong rebound in earnings over the next two years and a rising ROE. 


Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - A Stand Out on a Number of Fronts

Indonesia

PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk. operates as a bank. The Bank offers checking accounts, credit and debit cards, loans, insurance, payment protection, phone banking, bill pay, fund transfer, and merchant services. Bank Syariah Indonesia serves customers in Indonesia.

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Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT (BRIS IJ)

BRIS - Dominant

BRIS is relatively newly formed, with an incredibly dominant Shariah lending market share, where growth is high and can continue with strong asset...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Syariah Indonesia (BRIS IJ): Maintain Looking to Make Further Progress

Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate (BEST.IJ IDR 150 HOLD.TP IDR 140) Solid revenues recognition to startContent is external broker report sourced from...

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

Changes to the LQ45 Index will be announced soon & become effective after the close on 31 Jan. We see three potential changes. The adds outperform...

Brian Freitas

Jakarta Composite Index: Impact of Change to Capped Free Float Weighting

The JCI will change from a full market cap weighted index to a capped free float mkt cap weighted index. Beneficiaries are TLKM, BBRI, ASII, BMRI &...

Brian Freitas

Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - A Stand Out on a Number of Fronts

Bank Mandiri remains our top pick amongst the Indonesian banks, with a number of standout positives in credit quality, funding, digital banking,...

Angus Mackintosh

52-week Range

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P/E

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