Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>ASEAN's underperformance could continue. The low growth region is facing the additional risk of increasing Chinese exports, which could dent domestic companies' revenues and margins and engender a deflationary spiral.</li>
<li>China exports more to ASEAN than to the US or EU. Margin pressure in consumer and industrials is palpable. Thailand is in deflation and inflation is nosediving in the region.</li>
<li>We recommend playing the region through markets with low China import intensity (Indonesia, Philippines) and through consumer services and select banks. We have Digiplus, DBS, BCA in our model portfolio.</li>
</ul>


ASEAN's underperformance could continue. The low growth region is facing the additional risk of increasing Chinese exports, which could dent domestic companies' revenues and margins and engender a deflationary spiral.
China exports more to ASEAN than to the US or EU. Margin pressure in consumer and industrials is palpable. Thailand is in deflation and inflation is nosediving in the region.
We recommend playing the region through markets with low China import intensity (Indonesia, Philippines) and through consumer services and select banks. We have Digiplus, DBS, BCA in our model portfolio.


Asian Equities: To Sidestep ASEAN's China Problem, Focus on Select Pockets

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BMRI continues to take loan market share with growth well higher than average, due to its large balance sheet and focus on mining</li>
<li>Despite this, its NPL ratio has been steady for several periods, suggesting good underwriting, loan emphasis</li>
<li>ROA recent peak was 3.14% but the bank is near there now at 2.97%, growing in recent quarters, and likely to continue</li>
</ul>


BMRI continues to take loan market share with growth well higher than average, due to its large balance sheet and focus on mining
Despite this, its NPL ratio has been steady for several periods, suggesting good underwriting, loan emphasis
ROA recent peak was 3.14% but the bank is near there now at 2.97%, growing in recent quarters, and likely to continue


2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

<ul>
<li>Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. </li>
<li>Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.</li>
<li>Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. 
Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.
Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. 


Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 constituent change for the LQ45 Index and 2 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR)</a>. </li>
<li>The adds have moved higher over the recent past and are near their highs while the deletes have dropped over the last few years and are trading near their lows.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 constituent change for the LQ45 Index and 2 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 July.
The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Bank Central Asia (BBCA), Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI) and Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR). 
The adds have moved higher over the recent past and are near their highs while the deletes have dropped over the last few years and are trading near their lows.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes

Indonesia

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides banking and related services.  The Bank also provides custodianship, trusteeship, and management of pension funds of financial institutions.  Through its subsidiaries, the Bank also provides leasing and consumer financing services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)

Asian Equities: To Sidestep ASEAN's China Problem, Focus on Select Pockets

ASEAN is again in focus. President Trump's tariffs last night shows that his ire on ASEAN largely stems from China's transshipment through these...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new...

Angus Mackintosh

2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

BMRI is taking market share of loans, growing strongly, with no worsening in credit metrics. Slightly lower NIM is offset by higher fees, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top...

Angus Mackintosh

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes

There is 1 change for the LQ45 index and 2 changes for the IDX80 index. Plus there are float and capping changes. The adds have traded higher while...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Equities: To Sidestep ASEAN's China Problem, Focus on Select Pockets

ASEAN is again in focus. President Trump's tariffs last night shows that his ire on ASEAN largely stems from China's transshipment through these...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new...

Angus Mackintosh

2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

BMRI is taking market share of loans, growing strongly, with no worsening in credit metrics. Slightly lower NIM is offset by higher fees, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top...

Angus Mackintosh

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes

There is 1 change for the LQ45 index and 2 changes for the IDX80 index. Plus there are float and capping changes. The adds have traded higher while...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes