Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We rate Bank Mandiri as our top pick with its attractive valuations including PEG ratio relative to solid returns and strong balance sheet – including liquidity -  metrics</li>
<li>We also continue to favour Bank Negara, but it is our secondary value pick to Mandiri; Bank Central Asia, albeit fully valued, has impressive liquidity and return metrics</li>
<li>Bank Rakyat had mixed returns in 4Q22, with pre-provision returns declining sharply QoQ although cost of risk continued to improve, due to better credit quality, thereby supporting post-provision profits</li>
</ul>


We rate Bank Mandiri as our top pick with its attractive valuations including PEG ratio relative to solid returns and strong balance sheet – including liquidity -  metrics
We also continue to favour Bank Negara, but it is our secondary value pick to Mandiri; Bank Central Asia, albeit fully valued, has impressive liquidity and return metrics
Bank Rakyat had mixed returns in 4Q22, with pre-provision returns declining sharply QoQ although cost of risk continued to improve, due to better credit quality, thereby supporting post-provision profits


Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Private Capital Markets

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Private Capital Markets

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> has bought a further 18% stake in Indonesia's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago (ARTO IJ)</a> bringing its total state to 22.16%. The transaction was executed at 1.14x PBV and a significant discount to the last traded price.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago (ARTO IJ)</a> has a market capitalization of IDR42.3tn (US$2.9bn), which values Gojek's stake in the bank at IDR9.3tn (US$641m).</p>
<p>Gojek's Indonesia users will in the future be able to open a bank account with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago (ARTO IJ)</a> and manage their finances through the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> App. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago (ARTO IJ)</a> deal marks an opportunity for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> to capitalize on its vast user base, especially through GoPay, to offer customers digital banking products and other financial services.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago (ARTO IJ)</a> has already moved its focus to digital banking, targeting SMEs and retail customers. GoPay also recently received investment from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paypal-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4747:1" rel="noopener">Paypal Holdings (PYPL US)</a>, which also provides a strong backing and the potential for collaboration from two heavyweight foreign investors</p>
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<div>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ</a>, this will help it develop a process through which it can work with other banks, as well as providing customers with an increasing array of digital financial solutions.</div>
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<div>The deal also demonstrates that management is focused on building its competitive advantage in Indonesia rather than being sidelined any merger considerations with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP),</a> which seems increasingly unlikely. </div>
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<p>Gojek is also seen to be on the path to profitability, with all its services generating positive margins on a product basis. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> also recently received US$150m in new money from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ),</a> which represented another heavyweight local shareholder on top of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> and Djarum Group. </p>
<p>We look at the background of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago (ARTO IJ)</a> management team below the fold, which seems well-suited to building this future collaboration.</p>
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Gojek (1379371D IJ) has bought a further 18% stake in Indonesia's Bank Jago (ARTO IJ) bringing its total state to 22.16%. The transaction was executed at 1.14x PBV and a significant discount to the last traded price.
Bank Jago (ARTO IJ) has a market capitalization of IDR42.3tn (US$2.9bn), which values Gojek's stake in the bank at IDR9.3tn (US$641m).
Gojek's Indonesia users will in the future be able to open a bank account with Bank Jago (ARTO IJ) and manage their finances through the Gojek (1379371D IJ) App. 
The Bank Jago (ARTO IJ) deal marks an opportunity for Gojek (1379371D IJ) to capitalize on its vast user base, especially through GoPay, to offer customers digital banking products and other financial services.
Bank Jago (ARTO IJ) has already moved its focus to digital banking, targeting SMEs and retail customers. GoPay also recently received investment from Facebook Inc A (FB US) and Paypal Holdings (PYPL US), which also provides a strong backing and the potential for collaboration from two heavyweight foreign investors

For Gojek (1379371D IJ, this will help it develop a process through which it can work with other banks, as well as providing customers with an increasing array of digital financial solutions.

The deal also demonstrates that management is focused on building its competitive advantage in Indonesia rather than being sidelined any merger considerations with Grab (0967655D SP), which seems increasingly unlikely. 



Gojek is also seen to be on the path to profitability, with all its services generating positive margins on a product basis. Gojek (1379371D IJ) also recently received US$150m in new money from Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ), which represented another heavyweight local shareholder on top of Astra International (ASII IJ) and Djarum Group. 
We look at the background of the Bank Jago (ARTO IJ) management team below the fold, which seems well-suited to building this future collaboration.











































Gojek (1379371D IJ) - Upping the Ante on Financial Services

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

<p>Five interesting trends/developments that could impact Thai equities in the recent period:</p><ul>
<li>
<strong>Legalization of medicinal marijuana. </strong>Thailand legalized medicinal use of marijuana at end of February and has already received immense interest from potential growers. At some point, pharma and healthcare companies could be beneficiaries of this trend.</li>
<li>
<strong>Rumbles in the airline industry. </strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7706" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7706:1">Asia Aviation (AAV TB)</a> , parent company of Thai Air Asia, acquires a stake in competitor Nok Air. This is one of the few signs of industry consolidation in this sector.</li>
<li>
<strong>MOU signed between TMB and Thanachart. </strong>The deal may take longer than initially expected, but the two sides have agreed on some basics such as 70% equity financing and deal size of roughly Bt130-140bn.</li>
<li>
<strong>Read-through from US Election 2020. </strong>Some of the Democrat policies advocated by candidates in 2020 could turn out to be positive for Asian equities.</li>
<li>
<strong>BGrimm acquires Glow SPP1 </strong>for a bargain price of Bt3.3bn, or 55% of the expected price, opening the way for the GPSC-Glow merger, potentially the largest deal of 2019.</li>
</ul>

Five interesting trends/developments that could impact Thai equities in the recent period:

Legalization of medicinal marijuana. Thailand legalized medicinal use of marijuana at end of February and has already received immense interest from potential growers. At some point, pharma and healthcare companies could be beneficiaries of this trend.

Rumbles in the airline industry. Asia Aviation (AAV TB) , parent company of Thai Air Asia, acquires a stake in competitor Nok Air. This is one of the few signs of industry consolidation in this sector.

MOU signed between TMB and Thanachart. The deal may take longer than initially expected, but the two sides have agreed on some basics such as 70% equity financing and deal size of roughly Bt130-140bn.

Read-through from US Election 2020. Some of the Democrat policies advocated by candidates in 2020 could turn out to be positive for Asian equities.

BGrimm acquires Glow SPP1 for a bargain price of Bt3.3bn, or 55% of the expected price, opening the way for the GPSC-Glow merger, potentially the largest deal of 2019.


Snippets #19: Marijuana, Mergers, and More

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>I spent an interesting hour in Pacific Place, Jakarta with the Country Head of Jones Lang Lasalle (JLL) Indonesia, <strong>thrashing through the state of the Indonesian Property Market, top to bottom.</strong> The stellar growth at JLL reflects the strong growth in the commercial property market in Jakarta, with a total of around <strong>700 employees today versus around 80 staff six years ago</strong>. This <strong>rapid expansion reflects the rapid growth, as well as the increase in outsourcing of property management in the commercial space</strong>, especially by foreigners in Indonesia. </p><p>The <strong>office market continues to face an oversupply situation</strong>, with around <strong>two years of supply to be digested</strong>. This means <strong>rising vacancies and falling rents.</strong> Office <strong>vacancies sit around 16% but may hit 25-30%</strong> before bottoming out. <strong>Mixed-use projects are the winners</strong> in the office space and easy access is paramount, given Jakarta's love affair with traffic.<strong>The demand bright spots are coming from e-commerce and business services.</strong></p><p>The <strong>retail property market is in a much better state</strong>, given that the<strong> five-year-old moratorium on new malls in central Jakarta</strong> remains in place, choking off any major new supply. That said, it is a<strong> competitive market</strong> and the <strong>success of satellite malls </strong>in areas such as<strong> Serpong, suggests some dilution to the draw of central Jakarta offerings.</strong></p><p><strong>Industrial property</strong> is stabilising after a period of consolidation following rapid price appreciation over the past five years. E-commerce, FMCG and Third party Logistics (3PL) customers are the drivers. Land prices rose by around 300% over the last five years. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7755" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7755:1">Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk Pt (KIJA IJ)</a> is an interesting way to play the recovering industrial properties. 50% of the companies profits come from utilities such as power and water. It has also diversified to Central Java with a new estate in Kendal, near Semarang, a JV with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1087" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1087:1">Sembcorp Industries Ltd (SCI SP)</a>. </p><p>The <strong>residential property market remains lackluster</strong>, given that the rapid price rises between 2011 and 2014 are still having a <strong>lingering effect on affordability,</strong> with a <strong>recovery being delayed by a period of intensive tax scrutiny</strong> (coined by some as "tax-terrorism") in early 2016 followed by whole <strong>tax amnesty period</strong> and the tax payments that had to be made. <strong>2017 should hold better prospects</strong> with the tax issues fading somewhat and banks focusing on growing their mortgage loan books, in a falling interest rate environment.</p><p>The uncertainty around <strong>who may be looking over your shoulder, </strong>should you decide to buy a new property for investment has <strong>stymied the recovery in the residential market.</strong> As a result, the listed developers have undershot on their marketing sales targets in 2016. The major developers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5693" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5693:1">Summarecon Agung Tbk Pt (SMRA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15498" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15498:1">Bumi Serpong Damai Pt (BSDE IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5513" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5513:1">Ciputra Development Tbk Pt (CTRA IJ)</a> have also <strong>sought to increase the portion of recurrent property incomes to insulate against the volatility</strong><strong>in the residential property market.</strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8550" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8550:1">Pakuwon Jati Tbk Pt (PWON IJ)</a> is probably the best positioned in this respect, with more than <strong>50% of income coming from its investment properties</strong>, which are <strong>mixed use and of high quality</strong>, especially Ganderia and Cassablanca malls in jakarta. The <strong>developers are presenting a more positive picture for 2017,</strong> with <strong>more aggressive marketing sales targets.</strong> The aforementioned four stocks are all good proxies for a recovery and all trade on large discounts (&gt;50%) to NAV. <strong>SMRA and BSDE come out on top of the pile</strong> in terms of scale and profitability, with <strong>PWON good quality exposure to retail investment property</strong>. </p>

I spent an interesting hour in Pacific Place, Jakarta with the Country Head of Jones Lang Lasalle (JLL) Indonesia, thrashing through the state of the Indonesian Property Market, top to bottom. The stellar growth at JLL reflects the strong growth in the commercial property market in Jakarta, with a total of around 700 employees today versus around 80 staff six years ago. This rapid expansion reflects the rapid growth, as well as the increase in outsourcing of property management in the commercial space, especially by foreigners in Indonesia. The office market continues to face an oversupply situation, with around two years of supply to be digested. This means rising vacancies and falling rents. Office vacancies sit around 16% but may hit 25-30% before bottoming out. Mixed-use projects are the winners in the office space and easy access is paramount, given Jakarta's love affair with traffic.The demand bright spots are coming from e-commerce and business services.The retail property market is in a much better state, given that the five-year-old moratorium on new malls in central Jakarta remains in place, choking off any major new supply. That said, it is a competitive market and the success of satellite malls in areas such as Serpong, suggests some dilution to the draw of central Jakarta offerings.Industrial property is stabilising after a period of consolidation following rapid price appreciation over the past five years. E-commerce, FMCG and Third party Logistics (3PL) customers are the drivers. Land prices rose by around 300% over the last five years. Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk Pt (KIJA IJ) is an interesting way to play the recovering industrial properties. 50% of the companies profits come from utilities such as power and water. It has also diversified to Central Java with a new estate in Kendal, near Semarang, a JV with Sembcorp Industries Ltd (SCI SP). The residential property market remains lackluster, given that the rapid price rises between 2011 and 2014 are still having a lingering effect on affordability, with a recovery being delayed by a period of intensive tax scrutiny (coined by some as "tax-terrorism") in early 2016 followed by whole tax amnesty period and the tax payments that had to be made. 2017 should hold better prospects with the tax issues fading somewhat and banks focusing on growing their mortgage loan books, in a falling interest rate environment.The uncertainty around who may be looking over your shoulder, should you decide to buy a new property for investment has stymied the recovery in the residential market. As a result, the listed developers have undershot on their marketing sales targets in 2016. The major developers such as Summarecon Agung Tbk Pt (SMRA IJ), Bumi Serpong Damai Pt (BSDE IJ) and Ciputra Development Tbk Pt (CTRA IJ) have also sought to increase the portion of recurrent property incomes to insulate against the volatilityin the residential property market.Pakuwon Jati Tbk Pt (PWON IJ) is probably the best positioned in this respect, with more than 50% of income coming from its investment properties, which are mixed use and of high quality, especially Ganderia and Cassablanca malls in jakarta. The developers are presenting a more positive picture for 2017, with more aggressive marketing sales targets. The aforementioned four stocks are all good proxies for a recovery and all trade on large discounts (&gt;50%) to NAV. SMRA and BSDE come out on top of the pile in terms of scale and profitability, with PWON good quality exposure to retail investment property. 

Indonesia Property - A Question of Supply and Affordability - On the Ground in J-Town

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul>
<li>In the 2016 calendar year, more than 100 companies were involved in share buybacks, with the buyback considerations amounting to S$826 million. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/74" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74">Singapore Airlines Ltd (SIA SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/114" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. Limited (OCBC SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2894" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2894">Global Logistic Properties Ltd (GLP SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/765" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765">Olam International Ltd (OLAM SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22">DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBS SP)</a> ranked highest in terms of buyback consideration value over the calendar year.</li>
<li>More recently, for the month of December 2016, there were a total of 13,915,200 shares…</li>
</ul>


In the 2016 calendar year, more than 100 companies were involved in share buybacks, with the buyback considerations amounting to S$826 million. Singapore Airlines Ltd (SIA SP), Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. Limited (OCBC SP), Global Logistic Properties Ltd (GLP SP), Olam International Ltd (OLAM SP) and DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBS SP) ranked highest in terms of buyback consideration value over the calendar year.
More recently, for the month of December 2016, there were a total of 13,915,200 shares…


Over 100 Firms Conducted Share Buybacks Totaling S$826M in 2016

Indonesia

PT Bank Mega Tbk provides banking services. Through its subsidiary the Company also provides bonds and shares underwriting, stock broking, investment management, consultation services, and other activities related to the capital market.

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Bank Mega (MEGA IJ)

Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick

Our top pick is Bank Mandiri, and we also like Bank Negara; Bank Central Asia is the quality play but it seems fully valued, Bank Rakyat improved...

Victor Galliano

Gojek (1379371D IJ) - Upping the Ante on Financial Services

Gojek's recent move to increase its stake in Bank Jago to 22% signals it intends to move into providing a broader range of financial services.

Angus Mackintosh

Snippets #19: Marijuana, Mergers, and More

Five interesting trends/developments that could impact Thai equities in the recent period: Legalization of medicinal marijuana. Thailand legalized...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Indonesia Property - A Question of Supply and Affordability - On the Ground in J-Town

I spent an interesting hour in Pacific Place, Jakarta with the Country Head of Jones Lang Lasalle (JLL) Indonesia, thrashing through the state of...

Angus Mackintosh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick

Our top pick is Bank Mandiri, and we also like Bank Negara; Bank Central Asia is the quality play but it seems fully valued, Bank Rakyat improved...

Victor Galliano

Gojek (1379371D IJ) - Upping the Ante on Financial Services

Gojek's recent move to increase its stake in Bank Jago to 22% signals it intends to move into providing a broader range of financial services.

Angus Mackintosh

Snippets #19: Marijuana, Mergers, and More

Five interesting trends/developments that could impact Thai equities in the recent period: Legalization of medicinal marijuana. Thailand legalized...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Indonesia Property - A Question of Supply and Affordability - On the Ground in J-Town

I spent an interesting hour in Pacific Place, Jakarta with the Country Head of Jones Lang Lasalle (JLL) Indonesia, thrashing through the state of...

Angus Mackintosh

Over 100 Firms Conducted Share Buybacks Totaling S$826M in 2016

In the 2016 calendar year, more than 100 companies were involved in share buybacks, with the buyback considerations amounting to S$826 million....

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)