Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TSMC's expansion in US poses a challenge to Trump's labor strategy, according to DIGITIMES analyst.</li><li>Tesla leads in AI technology for electric vehicles and robots, pushing the boundaries of innovation.</li><li>European telecoms shift focus to AI as 5G deployment faces delays, while Indian mobile market shows growth potential in 2025.</li></ul>

TSMC's expansion in US poses a challenge to Trump's labor strategy, according to DIGITIMES analyst.Tesla leads in AI technology for electric vehicles and robots, pushing the boundaries of innovation.European telecoms shift focus to AI as 5G deployment faces delays, while Indian mobile market shows growth potential in 2025.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (06-Mar-2025): TSMC's US expansion challenges Trump's labor tactics -DIGITIMES

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weekly data for US banks shows good loan acceleration continuing in February, with less LLR, less large time deposits</li>
<li>The profit outlook for US banks is positive during 1Q25 given trends in high frequency data on loans, loan loss reserves, jumbo time deposits</li>
<li>Banks are seeing sharply higher growth rates in residential mortgage loans, where flow-through to economy is typically +ve</li>
</ul>


Weekly data for US banks shows good loan acceleration continuing in February, with less LLR, less large time deposits
The profit outlook for US banks is positive during 1Q25 given trends in high frequency data on loans, loan loss reserves, jumbo time deposits
Banks are seeing sharply higher growth rates in residential mortgage loans, where flow-through to economy is typically +ve


US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>TotalEnergies’ Q4 revenue is expected to drop 22.5% YoY, with EPS down 14.8% YoY. For 2024, revenue and EPS are projected to fall 5.2% and 17.8%, respectively.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies expects lower crude prices to weigh on earnings but anticipates gains from higher LNG output, stronger gas trading, and rising LNG prices, setting it apart from peers.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies expects a slight increase in Q4 oil and gas production, with its Integrated LNG segment benefiting from an output rise and higher realizations.</li>
</ul>


TotalEnergies’ Q4 revenue is expected to drop 22.5% YoY, with EPS down 14.8% YoY. For 2024, revenue and EPS are projected to fall 5.2% and 17.8%, respectively.
TotalEnergies expects lower crude prices to weigh on earnings but anticipates gains from higher LNG output, stronger gas trading, and rising LNG prices, setting it apart from peers.
TotalEnergies expects a slight increase in Q4 oil and gas production, with its Integrated LNG segment benefiting from an output rise and higher realizations.


[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies Banks on LNG Growth to Offset Weak Oil Prices

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 24/Jan, US crude inventories increased by 3.5m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.2m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles rose, while distillate stocks fell more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 321 Bcf for the week ending 24/Jan, beating analyst expectations of a 317 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Shell’s Q4 adjusted earnings dropped 38.3% QoQ and 49.9% YoY, missing estimates due to weak margins and oil prices. HSBC raised its PT on Chevron but cut it for Exxon.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 24/Jan, US crude inventories increased by 3.5m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.2m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles rose, while distillate stocks fell more than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 321 Bcf for the week ending 24/Jan, beating analyst expectations of a 317 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Shell’s Q4 adjusted earnings dropped 38.3% QoQ and 49.9% YoY, missing estimates due to weak margins and oil prices. HSBC raised its PT on Chevron but cut it for Exxon.


[ETP 2025/05] WTI Falls on Trump’s Trade Policies; Henry Hub Drops on Milder Weather Forecasts

<ul>
<li>The 4Q24 results from JPM are strong with net profit up 50% YoY and 9% QoQ</li>
<li>The bank shows almost no deposit growth YoY but there is reasonable loan growth</li>
<li>While non-accrual loans are rising, JPM holds substantially and rising LLR for these</li>
</ul>


The 4Q24 results from JPM are strong with net profit up 50% YoY and 9% QoQ
The bank shows almost no deposit growth YoY but there is reasonable loan growth
While non-accrual loans are rising, JPM holds substantially and rising LLR for these


JPM - 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR

United States

Bank of America Corporation accepts deposits and offers banking, investing, asset management, and other financial and risk-management products and services.  The Company has a mortgage lending subsidiary, and an investment banking and securities brokerage subsidiary.

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Bank Of America (BAC US)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (06-Mar-2025): TSMC's US expansion challenges Trump's labor tactics -DIGITIMES

TSMC's US expansion challenges Trump's labor strategy, Tesla advances AI in electric vehicles and robots, European telecoms focus on AI and discuss...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

US banks are seeing accelerating loan growth with lower loan loss reserves and less large time deposits, in HFD during Jan and Feb. The...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies Banks on LNG Growth to Offset Weak Oil Prices

TotalEnergies anticipates a drop in revenue and EPS for Q4 and 2024 due to lower crude prices, but expects gains from higher LNG output and...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/05] WTI Falls on Trump’s Trade Policies; Henry Hub Drops on Milder Weather Forecasts

US oil inventories rose more than expected, while natural gas inventories fell more than expected. Shell's earnings declined due to weak margins...

Mint Finance

JPM - 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR

The 4Q24 results from JPM are just out, with very strong growth in net profit, good cost controls and strong ALM still, with LDR expansion. Rising...

Daniel Tabbush

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Tech Supply Chain Tracker (06-Mar-2025): TSMC's US expansion challenges Trump's labor tactics -DIGITIMES

TSMC's US expansion challenges Trump's labor strategy, Tesla advances AI in electric vehicles and robots, European telecoms focus on AI and discuss...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

US banks are seeing accelerating loan growth with lower loan loss reserves and less large time deposits, in HFD during Jan and Feb. The...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies Banks on LNG Growth to Offset Weak Oil Prices

​TotalEnergies anticipates a drop in revenue and EPS for Q4 and 2024 due to lower crude prices, but expects gains from higher LNG output and...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/05] WTI Falls on Trump’s Trade Policies; Henry Hub Drops on Milder Weather Forecasts

​US oil inventories rose more than expected, while natural gas inventories fell more than expected. Shell's earnings declined due to weak margins...

Mint Finance

JPM - 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR

The 4Q24 results from JPM are just out, with very strong growth in net profit, good cost controls and strong ALM still, with LDR expansion. Rising...

Daniel Tabbush

TotalEnergies anticipates a drop in revenue and EPS for Q4 and 2024 due to lower crude prices, but expects gains from higher LNG output and...

US oil inventories rose more than expected, while natural gas inventories fell more than expected. Shell's earnings declined due to weak margins...