Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While maybe deflation may not be a concern right now, we believe that high real rates will be a consideration of the Fed</li>
<li>With average lending rates at 8.5% in August and the All Urban CPI Index recording 2.5% inflation in the August, real lending rates are high at 5.97%</li>
<li>When figures were similar, it was July/August 2007 - rarely has there been a time in recent years, where real loan rates have been so high, without Fed reaction</li>
</ul>


While maybe deflation may not be a concern right now, we believe that high real rates will be a consideration of the Fed
With average lending rates at 8.5% in August and the All Urban CPI Index recording 2.5% inflation in the August, real lending rates are high at 5.97%
When figures were similar, it was July/August 2007 - rarely has there been a time in recent years, where real loan rates have been so high, without Fed reaction


Fed Rate Cut - Real Lending Rates at 5.97% Near Where Peaking In August 2007

<ul>
<li>The Fed's Michael Barr has proposed recommendations to adjust Basel III rules, calculations on 11 September, so this is very new</li>
<li>JPM, CITI, BAC, GS, MS, WFC, SST, are G-SIBs in the US in order of 'importance to system' so that JPM is ranked as first and State Street the lowest</li>
<li>Of these banks, only WFC has seen its loans contract over the past two and a half years, which can mean it is marginally better prepared</li>
</ul>


The Fed's Michael Barr has proposed recommendations to adjust Basel III rules, calculations on 11 September, so this is very new
JPM, CITI, BAC, GS, MS, WFC, SST, are G-SIBs in the US in order of 'importance to system' so that JPM is ranked as first and State Street the lowest
Of these banks, only WFC has seen its loans contract over the past two and a half years, which can mean it is marginally better prepared


US Banks and New Capital Rules - GSIBs 9% More Capital, Can Impact Lending, WFC Stands Out Best

<ul>
<li>High frequency data in the US for mortgage loan applications and mortgage loan volume is improving, not suggestive of recession</li>
<li>Total domestic credit growth in the US is accelerating in recent months, and this can continue given the HFD on mortgages</li>
<li>Credit metrics can remain a concern, especially in CRE and card lending, despite the improved delta in mortgage lending and total lending</li>
</ul>


High frequency data in the US for mortgage loan applications and mortgage loan volume is improving, not suggestive of recession
Total domestic credit growth in the US is accelerating in recent months, and this can continue given the HFD on mortgages
Credit metrics can remain a concern, especially in CRE and card lending, despite the improved delta in mortgage lending and total lending


US Banks & Economy - HFD Mortgage Data Shows Weekly Improvements, Credit Growth Improving in US

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aramco’s Q2 operating revenue grew 5.7% YoY but missed estimates by 0.3%. Meanwhile, net profit fell by 3.4% YoY but its EPS edged past estimates by 0.8%.</li>
<li>Total hydrocarbon production fell 8.9% YoY to 12.3 mboepd while crude oil realisations rose 8.8% YoY.</li>
<li>In Q2, Aramco declared dividends totalling USD 31.1 billion, despite an 18.1% YoY decline in free cash flow to USD 19 billion.</li>
</ul>


Aramco’s Q2 operating revenue grew 5.7% YoY but missed estimates by 0.3%. Meanwhile, net profit fell by 3.4% YoY but its EPS edged past estimates by 0.8%.
Total hydrocarbon production fell 8.9% YoY to 12.3 mboepd while crude oil realisations rose 8.8% YoY.
In Q2, Aramco declared dividends totalling USD 31.1 billion, despite an 18.1% YoY decline in free cash flow to USD 19 billion.


[Earnings Review] Saudi Aramco’s Earnings Dip as Lower Output and Refining Margins Bite

Commodities

<ul>
<li>US crude inventories fell for the sixth straight week by 3.7 mb, exceeding the 1.6 mb decline expected by analysts. However, gasoline stocks rise by 1.3 mb.</li>
<li>For the week ending 02/Aug, US natural gas inventories were up 8.2% YoY and 14.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Occidental shares surged as it beat Q2 EPS estimates by 32.5%. Exxon and Aramco also exceeded EPS forecasts, while Chevron fell short.</li>
</ul>


US crude inventories fell for the sixth straight week by 3.7 mb, exceeding the 1.6 mb decline expected by analysts. However, gasoline stocks rise by 1.3 mb.
For the week ending 02/Aug, US natural gas inventories were up 8.2% YoY and 14.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Occidental shares surged as it beat Q2 EPS estimates by 32.5%. Exxon and Aramco also exceeded EPS forecasts, while Chevron fell short.


[ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates

United States

Bank of America Corporation accepts deposits and offers banking, investing, asset management, and other financial and risk-management products and services.  The Company has a mortgage lending subsidiary, and an investment banking and securities brokerage subsidiary.

Price Gauge
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Bank Of America (BAC US)

Fed Rate Cut - Real Lending Rates at 5.97% Near Where Peaking In August 2007

Real rates are too high in the US and they have been rising sharply. This is likely where the the Fed will need to focus when considering rate...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks and New Capital Rules - GSIBs 9% More Capital, Can Impact Lending, WFC Stands Out Best

New proposals on capital regulations for banks can mean more capital for the largest banks, but there are major differences between the GSIBs.

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks & Economy - HFD Mortgage Data Shows Weekly Improvements, Credit Growth Improving in US

HFD on mortgage loans is improving substantially, not suggestive of a weakening economy, impending recession. Overall loan growth is also...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Review] Saudi Aramco’s Earnings Dip as Lower Output and Refining Margins Bite

Aramco's Q2 revenue rose 5% YoY but earnings fell 3.4% due to lower production and refining margins. Dividends were declared at USD 31.1 billion...

Mint Finance

[ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates

US crude inventory falls. Nat-gas inventory up YoY. Oxy beats Q2 EPS estimates by 32%. XOM & Aramco beat forecasts. WTI IVs soared to YTD high of...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fed Rate Cut - Real Lending Rates at 5.97% Near Where Peaking In August 2007

Real rates are too high in the US and they have been rising sharply. This is likely where the the Fed will need to focus when considering rate...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks and New Capital Rules - GSIBs 9% More Capital, Can Impact Lending, WFC Stands Out Best

New proposals on capital regulations for banks can mean more capital for the largest banks, but there are major differences between the GSIBs.

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks & Economy - HFD Mortgage Data Shows Weekly Improvements, Credit Growth Improving in US

HFD on mortgage loans is improving substantially, not suggestive of a weakening economy, impending recession. Overall loan growth is also...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Review] Saudi Aramco’s Earnings Dip as Lower Output and Refining Margins Bite

​Aramco's Q2 revenue rose 5% YoY but earnings fell 3.4% due to lower production and refining margins. Dividends were declared at USD 31.1 billion...

Mint Finance

[ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates

US crude inventory falls. Nat-gas inventory up YoY. Oxy beats Q2 EPS estimates by 32%. XOM & Aramco beat forecasts. WTI IVs soared to YTD high of...

Mint Finance

Aramco's Q2 revenue rose 5% YoY but earnings fell 3.4% due to lower production and refining margins. Dividends were declared at USD 31.1 billion...