Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,315/1,320 points and the support at 1,297/1,288 points.</li><li>We maintain our recommendation that investors do trading buy, with the profit-taking target at the resistance at 1,330 points.</li><li>Moreover, the Thai economy shows signs of ongoing recovery from the 2Q24 to 4Q24, supported by increased government budget disbursement, improved exports, and industrial production.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,315/1,320 points and the support at 1,297/1,288 points.We maintain our recommendation that investors do trading buy, with the profit-taking target at the resistance at 1,330 points.Moreover, the Thai economy shows signs of ongoing recovery from the 2Q24 to 4Q24, supported by increased government budget disbursement, improved exports, and industrial production.

Weekly Strategy (Trading Buy; Expect Window Dressing)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,296/1,288 points and the resistance at 1,310/1,315 points.</li><li>We recommend trading buy to take profit at the resistance of 1,330 points and stopping losses at 1,296 points.</li><li>Investment strategy: We recommend stocks with positive news: KCE, SAPPE and ITC.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,296/1,288 points and the resistance at 1,310/1,315 points.We recommend trading buy to take profit at the resistance of 1,330 points and stopping losses at 1,296 points.Investment strategy: We recommend stocks with positive news: KCE, SAPPE and ITC.

Manufacturing and Services PMIs in June for the US, EU and Japan

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Credit costs, net charge-offs, are rising rapidly for US credit card companies and also for many banks</li>
<li>The 'buy now, pay later' industry is fairly new, Apple's new announcement to exit this business suddenly, may be testimony to stresses</li>
<li>The proportion of US credit card delinquencies/total US delinquencies is now higher than past credit cycles </li>
</ul>


Credit costs, net charge-offs, are rising rapidly for US credit card companies and also for many banks
The 'buy now, pay later' industry is fairly new, Apple's new announcement to exit this business suddenly, may be testimony to stresses
The proportion of US credit card delinquencies/total US delinquencies is now higher than past credit cycles 


<ul>
<li>New HFD shows CRE loan decline in the most recent week sizeable, a greater decline than in any week so far this year</li>
<li>Risk aversion and demand will be drivers, and still CRE loan growth now at -2.4% YoY can see this rate of contraction far lower</li>
<li>Credit costs are the key concern for banks (risk weightings can too be an issue), where smaller banks are infinitely more exposed than the largest US banks</li>
</ul>


New HFD shows CRE loan decline in the most recent week sizeable, a greater decline than in any week so far this year
Risk aversion and demand will be drivers, and still CRE loan growth now at -2.4% YoY can see this rate of contraction far lower
Credit costs are the key concern for banks (risk weightings can too be an issue), where smaller banks are infinitely more exposed than the largest US banks


US Bank HFD - CRE Loans Down A Lot, CRE Loan Growth Can Worsen Much More, Smaller Banks Exposed

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways as investors are waiting for clarity regarding the FOMC meeting results, the MPC meeting results, and inflation in the US and China in May, along with the Constitutional Court's consideration of the dissolution of the Move Forward Party.</li><li>As for the short-term and long-term outlook, the index has remained in a downtrend as it continued to make lower highs and lower lows after hitting a new low at 1,313.26 points last Monday (the previous low was 1,325.71 points on June 6, 2024).</li><li>The Fed is expected to maintain the fed funds rate at 5.5%, but the new dot plot may reflect a more hawkish stance (vs. three rate cuts estimated previously).</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways as investors are waiting for clarity regarding the FOMC meeting results, the MPC meeting results, and inflation in the US and China in May, along with the Constitutional Court's consideration of the dissolution of the Move Forward Party.As for the short-term and long-term outlook, the index has remained in a downtrend as it continued to make lower highs and lower lows after hitting a new low at 1,313.26 points last Monday (the previous low was 1,325.71 points on June 6, 2024).The Fed is expected to maintain the fed funds rate at 5.5%, but the new dot plot may reflect a more hawkish stance (vs. three rate cuts estimated previously).

United States

Bank of America Corporation accepts deposits and offers banking, investing, asset management, and other financial and risk-management products and services.  The Company has a mortgage lending subsidiary, and an investment banking and securities brokerage subsidiary.

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Bank Of America (BAC US)

Weekly Strategy (Trading Buy; Expect Window Dressing)

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,315/1,320 points and the support at 1,297/1,288 points. We...

Krungthai XSpring

Manufacturing and Services PMIs in June for the US, EU and Japan

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,296/1,288 points and the resistance at 1,310/1,315 points. We...

Krungthai XSpring

US Banks - Buy Now, Default Later?

Credit card defaults can be major risk for US card companies and banks. Credit cards and net charge-offs are surging. Macro data on credit card...

Daniel Tabbush

US Bank HFD - CRE Loans Down A Lot, CRE Loan Growth Can Worsen Much More, Smaller Banks Exposed

US banks are seeing weekly CRE loan growth at the sharpest weekly decline all year in the most recent data. Smaller banks are more exposed to...

Daniel Tabbush

US FOMC Meeting

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways as investors are waiting for clarity regarding the FOMC meeting results, the MPC meeting...

Krungthai XSpring

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52-week Range

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