Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>High frequency data in the US for mortgage loan applications and mortgage loan volume is improving, not suggestive of recession</li>
<li>Total domestic credit growth in the US is accelerating in recent months, and this can continue given the HFD on mortgages</li>
<li>Credit metrics can remain a concern, especially in CRE and card lending, despite the improved delta in mortgage lending and total lending</li>
</ul>


High frequency data in the US for mortgage loan applications and mortgage loan volume is improving, not suggestive of recession
Total domestic credit growth in the US is accelerating in recent months, and this can continue given the HFD on mortgages
Credit metrics can remain a concern, especially in CRE and card lending, despite the improved delta in mortgage lending and total lending


US Banks & Economy - HFD Mortgage Data Shows Weekly Improvements, Credit Growth Improving in US

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aramco’s Q2 operating revenue grew 5.7% YoY but missed estimates by 0.3%. Meanwhile, net profit fell by 3.4% YoY but its EPS edged past estimates by 0.8%.</li>
<li>Total hydrocarbon production fell 8.9% YoY to 12.3 mboepd while crude oil realisations rose 8.8% YoY.</li>
<li>In Q2, Aramco declared dividends totalling USD 31.1 billion, despite an 18.1% YoY decline in free cash flow to USD 19 billion.</li>
</ul>


Aramco’s Q2 operating revenue grew 5.7% YoY but missed estimates by 0.3%. Meanwhile, net profit fell by 3.4% YoY but its EPS edged past estimates by 0.8%.
Total hydrocarbon production fell 8.9% YoY to 12.3 mboepd while crude oil realisations rose 8.8% YoY.
In Q2, Aramco declared dividends totalling USD 31.1 billion, despite an 18.1% YoY decline in free cash flow to USD 19 billion.


[Earnings Review] Saudi Aramco’s Earnings Dip as Lower Output and Refining Margins Bite

Commodities

<ul>
<li>US crude inventories fell for the sixth straight week by 3.7 mb, exceeding the 1.6 mb decline expected by analysts. However, gasoline stocks rise by 1.3 mb.</li>
<li>For the week ending 02/Aug, US natural gas inventories were up 8.2% YoY and 14.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Occidental shares surged as it beat Q2 EPS estimates by 32.5%. Exxon and Aramco also exceeded EPS forecasts, while Chevron fell short.</li>
</ul>


US crude inventories fell for the sixth straight week by 3.7 mb, exceeding the 1.6 mb decline expected by analysts. However, gasoline stocks rise by 1.3 mb.
For the week ending 02/Aug, US natural gas inventories were up 8.2% YoY and 14.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Occidental shares surged as it beat Q2 EPS estimates by 32.5%. Exxon and Aramco also exceeded EPS forecasts, while Chevron fell short.


[ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates

<ul>
<li>The headline from The Nikkei is incredible: "NY Office Building Sold at '97% Discount.' This is a 23 floor building in midtown Manhattan which had 35% occupancy, built in 1960's. </li>
<li>Banks hold office buildings as collateral for their CRE loans, basically. They also hold other buildings at collateral, like shopping malls and strip malls. </li>
<li>The risk for US banks from worsening collateral values in CRE is much greater at small US banks (outside the largest 25 by assets) where they have high exposure.</li>
</ul>


The headline from The Nikkei is incredible: "NY Office Building Sold at '97% Discount.' This is a 23 floor building in midtown Manhattan which had 35% occupancy, built in 1960's. 
Banks hold office buildings as collateral for their CRE loans, basically. They also hold other buildings at collateral, like shopping malls and strip malls. 
The risk for US banks from worsening collateral values in CRE is much greater at small US banks (outside the largest 25 by assets) where they have high exposure.


US Banks - NY CRE Sold at 97% Discount, HFD Weekly Data Shows Small US Banks At Most Risk

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

<ul>
<li>Amazon anticipates a 13% YoY rise in Q2 2024 revenue to $148.67 billion and a 58% YoY jump in EPS to $1.03, highlighting robust earnings.</li>
<li>AWS is expected to see a $1 billion increase in quarterly revenue, reflecting an 18% year-over-year growth, driven by custom AI chips and model training services.</li>
<li>Analysts have reaffirmed buy ratings for Amazon, with an average target price of $228, reflecting strong confidence in the company's growth prospects.</li>
</ul>


Amazon anticipates a 13% YoY rise in Q2 2024 revenue to $148.67 billion and a 58% YoY jump in EPS to $1.03, highlighting robust earnings.
AWS is expected to see a $1 billion increase in quarterly revenue, reflecting an 18% year-over-year growth, driven by custom AI chips and model training services.
Analysts have reaffirmed buy ratings for Amazon, with an average target price of $228, reflecting strong confidence in the company's growth prospects.


Amazon Q2 Earnings: Eyes on AWS Margins, Website Traffic, and Advancements in Chips

United States

Bank of America Corporation accepts deposits and offers banking, investing, asset management, and other financial and risk-management products and services.  The Company has a mortgage lending subsidiary, and an investment banking and securities brokerage subsidiary.

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Bank Of America (BAC US)

US Banks & Economy - HFD Mortgage Data Shows Weekly Improvements, Credit Growth Improving in US

HFD on mortgage loans is improving substantially, not suggestive of a weakening economy, impending recession. Overall loan growth is also...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Review] Saudi Aramco’s Earnings Dip as Lower Output and Refining Margins Bite

Aramco's Q2 revenue rose 5% YoY but earnings fell 3.4% due to lower production and refining margins. Dividends were declared at USD 31.1 billion...

Mint Finance

[ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates

US crude inventory falls. Nat-gas inventory up YoY. Oxy beats Q2 EPS estimates by 32%. XOM & Aramco beat forecasts. WTI IVs soared to YTD high of...

Mint Finance

US Banks - NY CRE Sold at 97% Discount, HFD Weekly Data Shows Small US Banks At Most Risk

The headline of a NY office building selling at a 97% discount should be chilling for small US banks, which have 44% of their loans in CRE. Large...

Daniel Tabbush

Amazon Q2 Earnings: Eyes on AWS Margins, Website Traffic, and Advancements in Chips

Amazon's Q2 2024 earnings report, due 1/Aug, is expected to show 58.5% YoY growth in EPS driven by AWS expansion, e-commerce performance, and...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Banks & Economy - HFD Mortgage Data Shows Weekly Improvements, Credit Growth Improving in US

HFD on mortgage loans is improving substantially, not suggestive of a weakening economy, impending recession. Overall loan growth is also...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Review] Saudi Aramco’s Earnings Dip as Lower Output and Refining Margins Bite

​Aramco's Q2 revenue rose 5% YoY but earnings fell 3.4% due to lower production and refining margins. Dividends were declared at USD 31.1 billion...

Mint Finance

[ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates

US crude inventory falls. Nat-gas inventory up YoY. Oxy beats Q2 EPS estimates by 32%. XOM & Aramco beat forecasts. WTI IVs soared to YTD high of...

Mint Finance

US Banks - NY CRE Sold at 97% Discount, HFD Weekly Data Shows Small US Banks At Most Risk

The headline of a NY office building selling at a 97% discount should be chilling for small US banks, which have 44% of their loans in CRE. Large...

Daniel Tabbush

Amazon Q2 Earnings: Eyes on AWS Margins, Website Traffic, and Advancements in Chips

Amazon's Q2 2024 earnings report, due 1/Aug, is expected to show 58.5% YoY growth in EPS driven by AWS expansion, e-commerce performance, and...

Mint Finance

Aramco's Q2 revenue rose 5% YoY but earnings fell 3.4% due to lower production and refining margins. Dividends were declared at USD 31.1 billion...