Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A commercial &amp; industrial (C&amp;I) loan commitment is a commitment to lend that a bank provides a company for a fee, so that draw-down can be immediate, when needed</li>
<li>Granular quarterly data from the Fed shows unused C&amp;I loan commitments down USD142bn QoQ in 4Q24 or -5.2% QoQ. </li>
<li>The only other time there was such a sharp contraction was in 1Q20 when it was -12.5% QoQ or where it was down USD266bn QoQ. </li>
</ul>


A commercial &amp; industrial (C&amp;I) loan commitment is a commitment to lend that a bank provides a company for a fee, so that draw-down can be immediate, when needed
Granular quarterly data from the Fed shows unused C&amp;I loan commitments down USD142bn QoQ in 4Q24 or -5.2% QoQ. 
The only other time there was such a sharp contraction was in 1Q20 when it was -12.5% QoQ or where it was down USD266bn QoQ. 


US Banks - Off Balance Sheet, Decline of C&I Commitments, Not A Good Sign

<ul>
<li>While loan growth continues to accelerate for US banks in weekly HFD, the single most important driver is loans to other financial institutions</li>
<li>Cash growth is also very high and can be a sign of risk aversion, with cash up USD196bn vs loans up USD98bn from end Jan to 9 April </li>
<li>It is unclear which of the institutions contained in the Fed definition of other FI's, where commercial banks are lending, but it does not feel core</li>
</ul>


While loan growth continues to accelerate for US banks in weekly HFD, the single most important driver is loans to other financial institutions
Cash growth is also very high and can be a sign of risk aversion, with cash up USD196bn vs loans up USD98bn from end Jan to 9 April 
It is unclear which of the institutions contained in the Fed definition of other FI's, where commercial banks are lending, but it does not feel core


US Banks - Loans to Other FI's and Cash, Are Driving Most All Growth, Neither Is Positive

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 11/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.4m barrel rise). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.</li>
<li>Henry Hub headed for a fourth straight daily loss, with analysts expecting a 24 Bcf build in U.S. natural gas storage for the week ending 11/Apr.</li>
<li>Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, Schlumberger, and Halliburton, while TotalEnergies expects Q1 hydrocarbon production at the high end of its guidance range.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 11/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.4m barrel rise). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
Henry Hub headed for a fourth straight daily loss, with analysts expecting a 24 Bcf build in U.S. natural gas storage for the week ending 11/Apr.
Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, Schlumberger, and Halliburton, while TotalEnergies expects Q1 hydrocarbon production at the high end of its guidance range.


[ETP 2025/16] WTI Eyes First Weekly Gain in April; Mild Forecasts Drag Down Henry Hub

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaynes-technology-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36436:1" rel="noopener">Kaynes Technology India (KAYNES IN)</a> Semicon to deliver India's first packaged semiconductor chips by July 2025, supported by a multi-year deal.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-america-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:278:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of America (BAC US)</a> expects RBI to cut the repo rate to 6% in April, with a target of 5.5% by year-end.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vadilal-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8782:1" rel="noopener">Vadilal Industries (VDI IN)</a> settles promoter dispute, plans leadership restructuring and board reconstitution to improve governance and growth.</li>
</ul>



Kaynes Technology India (KAYNES IN) Semicon to deliver India's first packaged semiconductor chips by July 2025, supported by a multi-year deal.

Bank Of America (BAC US) expects RBI to cut the repo rate to 6% in April, with a target of 5.5% by year-end.

Vadilal Industries (VDI IN) settles promoter dispute, plans leadership restructuring and board reconstitution to improve governance and growth.


#130 India Insight: Textile Aims $100B Exports, Wind Energy Hits 48.5 GW, Data Centers Reach $10B

<ul>
<li>US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally. </li>
<li>The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating. </li>
<li>The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY</li>
</ul>


US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally. 
The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating. 
The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY


US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

United States

Bank of America Corporation accepts deposits and offers banking, investing, asset management, and other financial and risk-management products and services.  The Company has a mortgage lending subsidiary, and an investment banking and securities brokerage subsidiary.

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Bank Of America (BAC US)

US Banks - Off Balance Sheet, Decline of C&I Commitments, Not A Good Sign

Off balance sheet data for US banks shows C&I loan commitments down a lot in 4Q24, the most recent comparable period was in early FY20. This can be...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Loans to Other FI's and Cash, Are Driving Most All Growth, Neither Is Positive

US banks are seeing most of their loan growth to FI's rather than to the core economy which is not positive. Bank earnings can still be good, but...

Daniel Tabbush

[ETP 2025/16] WTI Eyes First Weekly Gain in April; Mild Forecasts Drag Down Henry Hub

US crude inventories rise slightly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fall; natural gas storage expected to increase; oil giants face price...

Mint Finance

#130 India Insight: Textile Aims $100B Exports, Wind Energy Hits 48.5 GW, Data Centers Reach $10B

Kaynes Technology India to deliver India's first packaged semiconductor chips by July 2025 with multi-year deal; Bank of America expects RBI to...

Sudarshan Bhandari

US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

US banks are seeing stronger loan growth in new weekly data, and growth rate now is far higher than what they saw during 1Q24 weeks. Lowering cash,...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Banks - Off Balance Sheet, Decline of C&I Commitments, Not A Good Sign

Off balance sheet data for US banks shows C&I loan commitments down a lot in 4Q24, the most recent comparable period was in early FY20. This can be...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Loans to Other FI's and Cash, Are Driving Most All Growth, Neither Is Positive

US banks are seeing most of their loan growth to FI's rather than to the core economy which is not positive. Bank earnings can still be good, but...

Daniel Tabbush

[ETP 2025/16] WTI Eyes First Weekly Gain in April; Mild Forecasts Drag Down Henry Hub

​US crude inventories rise slightly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fall; natural gas storage expected to increase; oil giants face price...

Mint Finance

#130 India Insight: Textile Aims $100B Exports, Wind Energy Hits 48.5 GW, Data Centers Reach $10B

​Kaynes Technology India to deliver India's first packaged semiconductor chips by July 2025 with multi-year deal; Bank of America expects RBI to...

Sudarshan Bhandari

US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

US banks are seeing stronger loan growth in new weekly data, and growth rate now is far higher than what they saw during 1Q24 weeks. Lowering cash,...

Daniel Tabbush

US crude inventories rise slightly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fall; natural gas storage expected to increase; oil giants face price...

Kaynes Technology India to deliver India's first packaged semiconductor chips by July 2025 with multi-year deal; Bank of America expects RBI to...