Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Krung Thai ranks second from top in terms of post-provision profitability and it has double digit ROE with a healthy balance sheet, along with attractive PBV and PE ratios</li>
<li>We also like Ayudhya, with its sound pre and post-provision profitability metrics with healthy ROE and ROA, its sound credit quality metrics and undemanding valuations</li>
<li>Kasikorn’s TTM cost of risk remain high versus the peers, and in 3Q23 it continued to worsen; its pre-provision profitability is healthy but there is, as yet, no CoR improvement</li>
</ul>


Krung Thai ranks second from top in terms of post-provision profitability and it has double digit ROE with a healthy balance sheet, along with attractive PBV and PE ratios
We also like Ayudhya, with its sound pre and post-provision profitability metrics with healthy ROE and ROA, its sound credit quality metrics and undemanding valuations
Kasikorn’s TTM cost of risk remain high versus the peers, and in 3Q23 it continued to worsen; its pre-provision profitability is healthy but there is, as yet, no CoR improvement


Thai Banks 3Q23 Screener; Stick with Krung Thai and Ayudhya

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Thai Credit Bank / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-credit-bank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40192:1" rel="noopener">Thai Credit Bank PCL (3674238Z TB)</a> is looking to raise US$300m from its upcoming Thailand IPO via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Thailand IPO.</li>
<li>TCB is a commercial bank that focuses on providing business loans to small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), nano loans and micro credits to merchants, and home loans for individual customers. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Thai Credit Bank PCL (3674238Z TB) is looking to raise US$300m from its upcoming Thailand IPO via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Thailand IPO.
TCB is a commercial bank that focuses on providing business loans to small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), nano loans and micro credits to merchants, and home loans for individual customers. 
In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.


Thai Credit Bank Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Although NPLs Are Rising, and Market Seems Fragmented

<ul>
<li>Krung Thai remains our pick; it ranks second from top in terms of post-provision profitability, screens well on NPL coverage, funding as well as PBV ratios and PE multiples</li>
<li>We also like Ayudhya, with its sound pre and post-provision profitability metrics in 2Q23, its sound credit quality metrics and attractive valuations</li>
<li>Kasikorn has seen its TTM cost of risk remain high, and it is the negative outlier versus its peers; yet Kasikorn’s poor share performance makes it one for the watchlist</li>
</ul>


Krung Thai remains our pick; it ranks second from top in terms of post-provision profitability, screens well on NPL coverage, funding as well as PBV ratios and PE multiples
We also like Ayudhya, with its sound pre and post-provision profitability metrics in 2Q23, its sound credit quality metrics and attractive valuations
Kasikorn has seen its TTM cost of risk remain high, and it is the negative outlier versus its peers; yet Kasikorn’s poor share performance makes it one for the watchlist


Thai Banks 2Q23 Screener; We Reiterate Our Positive Picks Krung Thai and Ayudhya

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,540 points (75-day EMA) and the support at 1,517/1,515 points (10-day and 25-day EMA).</li><li>The key issues today include KTX's positive view on foreign fund inflows toward both the bond and equity markets thanks to three factors.</li><li>Large banks are likely to report higher earnings due to an increase in NIM (as the interest rate upcycle has helped increase loan yields).</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,540 points (75-day EMA) and the support at 1,517/1,515 points (10-day and 25-day EMA).The key issues today include KTX's positive view on foreign fund inflows toward both the bond and equity markets thanks to three factors.Large banks are likely to report higher earnings due to an increase in NIM (as the interest rate upcycle has helped increase loan yields).

DXY Index/USDTHB Ratio Has Accelerated, and Cumulative Buying Has Increased to Exceed the 5-Day Average, Both in the Equity and Bond Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krung-thai-bank-pub-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:298:1" rel="noopener">Krung Thai Bank Pub (KTB TB)</a> remains our pick; it ranks top in terms of post-provision profitability, screens well on NPL coverage, funding and valuations, including its attractive PEG ratio</li>
<li>We also like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-ayudhya-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:136:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB)</a>, with its sound pre and post-provision profitability in 1Q23, strong credit quality metrics and very attractive valuations</li>
<li>Kasikorn has seen its high cost of risk come down in 1Q23, but this remains elevated versus its domestic peers; Kasikorn may be a 2023 opportunity, one for the watchlist</li>
</ul>



Krung Thai Bank Pub (KTB TB) remains our pick; it ranks top in terms of post-provision profitability, screens well on NPL coverage, funding and valuations, including its attractive PEG ratio
We also like Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB), with its sound pre and post-provision profitability in 1Q23, strong credit quality metrics and very attractive valuations
Kasikorn has seen its high cost of risk come down in 1Q23, but this remains elevated versus its domestic peers; Kasikorn may be a 2023 opportunity, one for the watchlist


Thai Banks 4Q22 Screener; We Reiterate that Krung Thai Is Our Top Pick

Thailand

Bank of Ayudhya Public Co., Ltd., also known as Krungsri, is a leading commercial bank in Thailand providing a comprehensive range of universal banking services. It offers personal, corporate, and SME banking services, including auto loans, home loans, transaction accounts, investment banking, and treasury services. The bank is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was established in 1945.

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Bank of Ayudhya (BAY TB)

Thai Banks 3Q23 Screener; Stick with Krung Thai and Ayudhya

Of the Thai banks, Krung Thai and Ayudhya have strong profitability and healthy balance sheets, with attractive PBV and PE ratios, while...

Victor Galliano

Thai Credit Bank Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Although NPLs Are Rising, and Market Seems Fragmented

Thai Credit Bank PCL (3674238Z TB) is looking to raise US$300m from its upcoming Thailand IPO via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in...

Clarence Chu

Thai Banks 2Q23 Screener; We Reiterate Our Positive Picks Krung Thai and Ayudhya

We reiterate our buy picks, Krung Thai and Ayudhya, among the Thai banks for their premium ROEs and pre- and post-provision profitability metrics,...

Victor Galliano

DXY Index/USDTHB Ratio Has Accelerated, and Cumulative Buying Has Increased to Exceed the 5-Day Average, Both in the Equity and Bond Markets

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,540 points (75-day EMA) and the support at 1,517/1,515...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Banks 4Q22 Screener; We Reiterate that Krung Thai Is Our Top Pick

KrungThai is our top pick with its premium profitability, healthy NPL coverage, funding and valuations, along with its low PEG ratio; we also like...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Thai Banks 3Q23 Screener; Stick with Krung Thai and Ayudhya

​Of the Thai banks, Krung Thai and Ayudhya have strong profitability and healthy balance sheets, with attractive PBV and PE ratios, while...

Victor Galliano

Thai Credit Bank Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Although NPLs Are Rising, and Market Seems Fragmented

Thai Credit Bank PCL (3674238Z TB) is looking to raise US$300m from its upcoming Thailand IPO via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in...

Clarence Chu

Thai Banks 2Q23 Screener; We Reiterate Our Positive Picks Krung Thai and Ayudhya

We reiterate our buy picks, Krung Thai and Ayudhya, among the Thai banks for their premium ROEs and pre- and post-provision profitability metrics,...

Victor Galliano

DXY Index/USDTHB Ratio Has Accelerated, and Cumulative Buying Has Increased to Exceed the 5-Day Average, Both in the Equity and Bond Markets

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,540 points (75-day EMA) and the support at 1,517/1,515...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Banks 4Q22 Screener; We Reiterate that Krung Thai Is Our Top Pick

KrungThai is our top pick with its premium profitability, healthy NPL coverage, funding and valuations, along with its low PEG ratio; we also like...

Victor Galliano

Of the Thai banks, Krung Thai and Ayudhya have strong profitability and healthy balance sheets, with attractive PBV and PE ratios, while...