Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Dah Sing saw its Macau and China credit costs rise by 4x in 1H25 YoY</li>
<li>Headline total provision rise of 34% YoY gives a flattering view of credit metrics</li>
<li>Loan migration from benign to worse overdue loan buckets is dramatic, not visible in headlines</li>
</ul>


Dah Sing saw its Macau and China credit costs rise by 4x in 1H25 YoY
Headline total provision rise of 34% YoY gives a flattering view of credit metrics
Loan migration from benign to worse overdue loan buckets is dramatic, not visible in headlines


HK Banks - Dah Sing's Credit Costs in Macau and China Rose 4x YoY in 1H25

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom (H) (728 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the close on 5 September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$11.25bn (US$1.44bn). The official capping will be done based on closing prices from 2 September.</li>
<li>At 88 constituents, we near the 100-index member target. The target is likely to be reached by early-2027 - maybe 2026 given mainland companies listing of H-shares on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX</a>.</li>
</ul>



China Telecom (H) (728 HK), JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Pop Mart (9992 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$11.25bn (US$1.44bn). The official capping will be done based on closing prices from 2 September.
At 88 constituents, we near the 100-index member target. The target is likely to be reached by early-2027 - maybe 2026 given mainland companies listing of H-shares on the HKEX.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Pop Mart, China Telecom, JD Logistics Added to Get to 88 Members

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng Index for the September 2025 rebalance. That takes us to 88 constituents. </li>
<li>There were three ADDs - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> were expected. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom (H) (728 HK)</a> was in our LOW conviction ranks but added.</li>
<li>It's not big at US$1.3bn to trade, but we have until 2 Sep to see capping or funding changes and the event will be effective 5 September at the close.</li>
</ul>


On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng Index for the September 2025 rebalance. That takes us to 88 constituents. 
There were three ADDs - Pop Mart (9992 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) were expected. China Telecom (H) (728 HK) was in our LOW conviction ranks but added.
It's not big at US$1.3bn to trade, but we have until 2 Sep to see capping or funding changes and the event will be effective 5 September at the close.


[Quiddity Index] Sep25 Hang Seng Index Review Announced; 3 ADDs, Now 88 Names

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 58.0% as of Aug 22nd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, real estate, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Air China, Cosco Shipping Development, Ganfeng Lithium, Fuyao Glass.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 58.0% as of Aug 22nd.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, real estate, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Air China, Cosco Shipping Development, Ganfeng Lithium, Fuyao Glass.


A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 22nd): Air China, Cosco Shipping Development, Ganfeng Lithium, Fuyao Glass

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 22nd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Life, Tencent, Alibaba, Kuaishou, AIA, Li Auto, Anta, Geely Automobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 22nd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for China Life, Tencent, Alibaba, Kuaishou, AIA, Li Auto, Anta, Geely Automobile.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 22nd): China Life, Tencent, Alibaba, Kuaishou, AIA, Li Auto, Anta

China

Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, foreign currency transaction, fund settlement, and other services. Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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Bank of China (601988 CH)

HK Banks - Dah Sing's Credit Costs in Macau and China Rose 4x YoY in 1H25

Dah Sing Financial shows 4x growth YoY in its Macau and China credit costs. This is not clearly visible, or its Overdue Loan migration, in headline...

Daniel Tabbush

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Pop Mart, China Telecom, JD Logistics Added to Get to 88 Members

Pop Mart, JD Logistics, China Telecom added to get to 88 index members. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the round-trip trade is HK$11.25bn....

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 Hang Seng Index Review Announced; 3 ADDs, Now 88 Names

The Hang Seng Index adds 3 names getting us to 88 names. 12 more to go to 100 but still missing healthcare names. Telecom and JD Logistics are the...

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 22nd): Air China, Cosco Shipping Development, Ganfeng Lithium, Fuyao Glass

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Air China, Cosco Shipping Development, Ganfeng Lithium,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 22nd): China Life, Tencent, Alibaba, Kuaishou, AIA, Li Auto, Anta

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for China Life, Tencent, Alibaba, Kuaishou, AIA, Li Auto,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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