Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As forecast, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the close on 5 September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$4.8bn (US$612m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart</a> is also being added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> and that marks the end of inclusion in major indices for the stock.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, Pop Mart (9992 HK) will replace J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$4.8bn (US$612m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 September.

Pop Mart is also being added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and that marks the end of inclusion in major indices for the stock.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Pop Mart Pops Ahead of Double Index Inclusion

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 15th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Xiaomi, Kuaishou, Wuxi Biologics, Alibaba, BYD Electronic, Anta, China Mobile, China Life, Zai Lab.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 15th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Xiaomi, Kuaishou, Wuxi Biologics, Alibaba, BYD Electronic, Anta, China Mobile, China Life, Zai Lab.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 15th): Xiaomi, Kuaishou, Wuxi Biologics, Alibaba, BYD Electronic, Anta

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We believe that the credit metric deterioration at HSBC is not well flagged by the bank, or well understood in the market. </li>
<li>There is substantial growth in credit costs in its HK business, where this has been the most important driver of value for HSBC</li>
<li>CRE credit metrics are of concern in HK and in Mainland China, where Stage 2 loans are rising substantially, from Stage 1 loan bucket</li>
</ul>


We believe that the credit metric deterioration at HSBC is not well flagged by the bank, or well understood in the market. 
There is substantial growth in credit costs in its HK business, where this has been the most important driver of value for HSBC
CRE credit metrics are of concern in HK and in Mainland China, where Stage 2 loans are rising substantially, from Stage 1 loan bucket


HSBC - 1H25 Tables & Data, Clear Risks, Even if Not Stated in Headlines

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH premia down, bouncing back. "Beautiful Skew" continues generally, but curve skew less pronounced. Average AH moves remain volatile - often the sign of significant distribution changes.</li>
<li>The Quiddity Portfolio is now smaller, less concentrated, and the net H vs A bias is MUCH smaller. Alpha continues, predicated on beautiful skew. But pair vol is very high. </li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH premia down, bouncing back. "Beautiful Skew" continues generally, but curve skew less pronounced. Average AH moves remain volatile - often the sign of significant distribution changes.
The Quiddity Portfolio is now smaller, less concentrated, and the net H vs A bias is MUCH smaller. Alpha continues, predicated on beautiful skew. But pair vol is very high. 
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025):  Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues

Fuyao Glass Industry Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH premia up, erasing the previous week's gains for Hs. "Beautiful Skew" continues in negative overall performance. </li>
<li>Last week I said "This is the most significant 60-day AH pair average H outperformance in five years, maybe ever. Remarkable." This week it unwound some.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH premia up, erasing the previous week's gains for Hs. "Beautiful Skew" continues in negative overall performance. 
Last week I said "This is the most significant 60-day AH pair average H outperformance in five years, maybe ever. Remarkable." This week it unwound some.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Aug 2025):  HUGE SOUTHBOUND Buying Helps Beautiful Skew but Premia Up

China

Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, foreign currency transaction, fund settlement, and other services. Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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Bank of China (601988 CH)

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Pop Mart Pops Ahead of Double Index Inclusion

Pop Mart will replace J&T Global Express in the HSCEI. Pop Mart is also an HSI add - the stock has run up and there could be profit taking against...

Brian Freitas

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 15th): Xiaomi, Kuaishou, Wuxi Biologics, Alibaba, BYD Electronic, Anta

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Xiaomi, Kuaishou, Wuxi Biologics, Alibaba, BYD...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSBC - 1H25 Tables & Data, Clear Risks, Even if Not Stated in Headlines

HSBC 1H25 data release has a lot of granular data, which does not instill a huge amount of confidence in HK or CH credit metrics.

Daniel Tabbush

A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025): Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues

Hs generally outperformed their As last week in volatile fashion. Super-liquid Hs trading at a premium to As lost. Second good week in a row for...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Aug 2025): HUGE SOUTHBOUND Buying Helps Beautiful Skew but Premia Up

AH Premia rose on the week after the strongest 60-day average H outperformance seen in many years. SOUTHBOUND buying was huge, but H...

Travis Lundy

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