Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>In December 2017, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a 270-page report assessing China’s financial sector and specifically how the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has fared in its observance of Basel core principles. It may not be coincidental that the China regulator(s) have become stricter during 2018. Two key shortcomings highlighted in the report are worth exploring further: special mention loans and interbank lending.  Many of China’s banks will see a surge in bad loans…</p>

In December 2017, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a 270-page report assessing China’s financial sector and specifically how the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has fared in its observance of Basel core principles. It may not be coincidental that the China regulator(s) have become stricter during 2018. Two key shortcomings highlighted in the report are worth exploring further: special mention loans and interbank lending.  Many of China’s banks will see a surge in bad loans…

China Banks – Special Mention Loans and Bank Lending Under Fire from IMF

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>We decided to to move away from Japan look at a different region, mainly because I got tired of Financials dominating all of my Value screens. However, when we started to screen for some cheap names in Hong Kong we found that Financials dominate as well.  Out of the 24 names that made the deep value screen, 16 names were in the Financial Sector.</p><h2>Screen Criteria</h2><ol>
<li>Hong Kong universe with mkt-cap above 500USD</li>
<li>Current PBR is below 1.3x</li>
<li>Current PBR is less than 20% above the 8-year PBR low</li>
<li>Current FY1…</li>
</ol>

We decided to to move away from Japan look at a different region, mainly because I got tired of Financials dominating all of my Value screens. However, when we started to screen for some cheap names in Hong Kong we found that Financials dominate as well.  Out of the 24 names that made the deep value screen, 16 names were in the Financial Sector.Screen Criteria
Hong Kong universe with mkt-cap above 500USD
Current PBR is below 1.3x
Current PBR is less than 20% above the 8-year PBR low
Current FY1…


Financials Also Very Cheap in Hong Kong / Deep Value Screen....

<p>The China bank numbers show us once again that quarterly figures during the year are hardly reliable. This is because it is in the final quarter when banks top up their impairment costs, showing that previous periods are highly inflated.  At the same time, where stated NPL figures are increasingly held in question, for some banks, special mention loans are soaring. This is yet another way to limit impairment costs and inflate profit.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Profit growth of selected China banks (% ch QoQ)</strong></p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><p><strong> </strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>2Q16</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>3Q16</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>4Q16</strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>…</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

The China bank numbers show us once again that quarterly figures during the year are hardly reliable. This is because it is in the final quarter when banks top up their impairment costs, showing that previous periods are highly inflated.  At the same time, where stated NPL figures are increasingly held in question, for some banks, special mention loans are soaring. This is yet another way to limit impairment costs and inflate profit.Profit growth of selected China banks (% ch QoQ)

 
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16


…



Sequential Profit Is Telling for China Banks

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

<p>One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its 'Sons and Daughters Program'. The silence since then from Chinese anti-corruption officials has been deafening.</p>

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its 'Sons and Daughters Program'. The silence since then from Chinese anti-corruption officials has been deafening.

Chinese Officials Turn a Blind Eye to Corruption

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

<p>China has announced the launch of a new initiative that is likely to liberalize the process for foreign investors to invest in the China bond market. <strong>As the third largest bond market in the world, this could be a significant boost to international investors wanting access to the Mainland China debt market.</strong></p><div class="content-highlight"><p>On 15 March 2017, following the fifth annual meeting of the 12th National People' Congress, Premier Li Keqiang announced the intention to launch a bond trading link between China and Hong Kong…</p></div>

China has announced the launch of a new initiative that is likely to liberalize the process for foreign investors to invest in the China bond market. As the third largest bond market in the world, this could be a significant boost to international investors wanting access to the Mainland China debt market.On 15 March 2017, following the fifth annual meeting of the 12th National People' Congress, Premier Li Keqiang announced the intention to launch a bond trading link between China and Hong Kong…

China-Hong Kong Bond Connect on Its Way. A Legal Update from Dechert's Financial Services Group

China

Bank of Chongqing Co., Ltd. provides a comprehensive range of banking and related financial services to corporate and individual clients across the People's Republic of China. The bank offers deposit and lending products, financial market services, and digital banking solutions. It was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Chongqing, People's Republic of China.

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Bank of Chongqing (1963 HK)

China Banks – Special Mention Loans and Bank Lending Under Fire from IMF

In December 2017, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a 270-page report assessing China’s financial sector and specifically how the China...

Daniel Tabbush

Financials Also Very Cheap in Hong Kong / Deep Value Screen....

We decided to to move away from Japan look at a different region, mainly because I got tired of Financials dominating all of my Value screens....

Custom Products Group

Sequential Profit Is Telling for China Banks

The China bank numbers show us once again that quarterly figures during the year are hardly reliable. This is because it is in the final quarter...

Daniel Tabbush

Chinese Officials Turn a Blind Eye to Corruption

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its...

Bixmoor

China-Hong Kong Bond Connect on Its Way. A Legal Update from Dechert's Financial Services Group

China has announced the launch of a new initiative that is likely to liberalize the process for foreign investors to invest in the China bond...

Dechert LLP

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