Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>KTX expects the SET to trade within 1,549–1,600.</li>
<li>Uncertainty over the Fed's rate outlook may keep the index volatile early in the month.</li>
<li>A recovery could follow the release of the Fed minutes and gain momentum as Thailand hosts the IMF-World Bank meetings.</li>
</ul>


KTX expects the SET to trade within 1,549–1,600.
Uncertainty over the Fed's rate outlook may keep the index volatile early in the month.
A recovery could follow the release of the Fed minutes and gain momentum as Thailand hosts the IMF-World Bank meetings.


Market Volatility to Persist in October 2026, But Recovery Prospects Improve

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Monetary Policy Committee of Thailand (MPC) is expected to hold the policy rate at 1.00%.</li><li>The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced its withdrawal from OPEC.</li><li>The Ministry of Finance has revised 2026 headline inflation up to +3.0% (from +0.3%), driven by volatile energy prices and higher import costs.</li></ul>

The Monetary Policy Committee of Thailand (MPC) is expected to hold the policy rate at 1.00%.The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced its withdrawal from OPEC.The Ministry of Finance has revised 2026 headline inflation up to +3.0% (from +0.3%), driven by volatile energy prices and higher import costs.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. April 29, 2026

<ul><li>KTX expects the SET Index in January 2026 to trade in a sideways to sideways-up range, supported by a generally positive macro environment that helps sustain market confidence.</li><li>The SET Index is currently trading at a premium of around 5% to its fair value of 1,321 points (based on an earnings yield gap of 5.6%), suggesting that valuations remain relatively tight.</li><li>We recommend emphasizing high-dividend stocks to help mitigate market volatility.</li></ul>

KTX expects the SET Index in January 2026 to trade in a sideways to sideways-up range, supported by a generally positive macro environment that helps sustain market confidence.The SET Index is currently trading at a premium of around 5% to its fair value of 1,321 points (based on an earnings yield gap of 5.6%), suggesting that valuations remain relatively tight.We recommend emphasizing high-dividend stocks to help mitigate market volatility.

Monthly Report: JANUARY 2026: Outlook: Sideways With An Upward Bias

<ul><li>The Fed is expected to begin its rate-cutting cycle.</li><li>While inflation remains a concern, the sharp deterioration in employment is considered the greater risk.</li><li>Fed projections (Dot Plot) may be revised to indicate deeper rate cuts to reflect the sharp deterioration in employment, while inflation estimates could also be raised.</li></ul>

The Fed is expected to begin its rate-cutting cycle.While inflation remains a concern, the sharp deterioration in employment is considered the greater risk.Fed projections (Dot Plot) may be revised to indicate deeper rate cuts to reflect the sharp deterioration in employment, while inflation estimates could also be raised.

KTX AHEAD: The US May Be The Only Country Cutting Rate

<ul><li>KTX assesses that pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates is intensifying due to several factors.</li><li>We believe that foreign fund outflows from the Thai stock market are likely to begin slowing down, driven by the following factors.</li><li>The 3Q24 performance reports from listed companies, representing 40% of the total, show a combined net profit of Bt86.4bn, which is 10% below the consensus estimate of Bt96.0bn.</li></ul>

KTX assesses that pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates is intensifying due to several factors.We believe that foreign fund outflows from the Thai stock market are likely to begin slowing down, driven by the following factors.The 3Q24 performance reports from listed companies, representing 40% of the total, show a combined net profit of Bt86.4bn, which is 10% below the consensus estimate of Bt96.0bn.

View on the SET: Downbeat 3Q24 Earnings Have Pressured the SET's EPS

Japan

The Bank of Japan serves as Japan's central bank who seeks to maintain price stability and to ensure the stability of the nation's financial system.  The Bank issues and maintains bills, executes monetary policy, acts as clearing house for nation's banks, administrates treasury, issues government bonds, intervenes foreign exchange markets, and provides economic data and statistics.

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Bank Of Japan (8301 JP)

Market Volatility to Persist in October 2026, But Recovery Prospects Improve

KTX expects the SET to trade within 1,549–1,600. Uncertainty over the Fed's rate outlook may keep the index volatile early in the month. A...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. April 29, 2026

The Monetary Policy Committee of Thailand (MPC) is expected to hold the policy rate at 1.00%.The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced its...

Krungthai XSpring

Monthly Report: JANUARY 2026: Outlook: Sideways With An Upward Bias

KTX expects the SET Index in January 2026 to trade in a sideways to sideways-up range, supported by a generally positive macro environment that...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX AHEAD: The US May Be The Only Country Cutting Rate

Fed projections (Dot Plot) may be revised to indicate deeper rate cuts to reflect the sharp deterioration in employment, while inflation estimates...

Krungthai XSpring

View on the SET: Downbeat 3Q24 Earnings Have Pressured the SET's EPS

KTX assesses that pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates is intensifying due to several factors. We believe that foreign fund...

Krungthai XSpring

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