Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/karnataka-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:281:1" rel="noopener">Karnataka Bank (KBL IN)</a>'s top two executives resigned under unclear circumstances, with boardroom friction, unauthorized spending, and weak financial performance raising concerns.</li>
<li>Even audit report also suggests some red flags of minuscule amounts in unauthorized expenses, raising governance issues.</li>
<li>The bank’s leadership shakeup and declining financials suggest instability; while governance reforms are needed along with new and strong leadership and governance realignment.</li>
</ul>



Karnataka Bank (KBL IN)'s top two executives resigned under unclear circumstances, with boardroom friction, unauthorized spending, and weak financial performance raising concerns.
Even audit report also suggests some red flags of minuscule amounts in unauthorized expenses, raising governance issues.
The bank’s leadership shakeup and declining financials suggest instability; while governance reforms are needed along with new and strong leadership and governance realignment.


Executive Exodus at Karnataka Bank: More Than Just "Personal Reasons"?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Indian PSU banking (PSB) sector, once considered structurally broken, is experiencing early signs of a secular turnaround, buttressed by a combination of governance reforms (balance sheet repair and recapitalization), modernized digital stack, and a gradual turnaround in the quality and sustainability of earnings</li><li>This is beginning to reflect in PSBs finally stabilizing their loan market share (+52bps market share gains during FY25), enhancing the quality of their customer franchise and service standards, and improving their return ratios</li><li>Despite improving profitability (FY25 RoAs approaching 1%), investors remain skeptical of the sustainability of these earnings</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The Indian PSU banking (PSB) sector, once considered structurally broken, is experiencing early signs of a secular turnaround, buttressed by a combination of governance reforms (balance sheet repair and recapitalization), modernized digital stack, and a gradual turnaround in the quality and sustainability of earningsThis is beginning to reflect in PSBs finally stabilizing their loan market share (+52bps market share gains during FY25), enhancing the quality of their customer franchise and service standards, and improving their return ratiosDespite improving profitability (FY25 RoAs approaching 1%), investors remain skeptical of the sustainability of these earningsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Public Sector Banks: Repair, Reform, Reset

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Anthem Biosciences / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anthem-biosciences" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44206:1" rel="noopener">Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN)</a> is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Anthem Biosciences (ABS) is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation (CRDMO) with fully integrated operations spanning drug discovery, development, and manufacturing.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming India IPO.
Anthem Biosciences (ABS) is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation (CRDMO) with fully integrated operations spanning drug discovery, development, and manufacturing.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Anthem Biosciences Pre-IPO - The Negatives- Margins Aren't There Yet

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for a bunch of indices ended last week though the announcement of the changes will take 4-6 weeks.</li>
<li>There are no rebalance implementations in the coming week though focus will move to the implementation of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> merger and index changes the following week.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to China focused ETF with a lot of money going into Semiconductor and Chip focused ETFs.</li>
</ul>


The review period for a bunch of indices ended last week though the announcement of the changes will take 4-6 weeks.
There are no rebalance implementations in the coming week though focus will move to the implementation of the HDFC Limited/ HDFC Bank merger and index changes the following week.
There were big inflows to China focused ETF with a lot of money going into Semiconductor and Chip focused ETFs.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KQ150, LQ45, PCOMP, HDFC/HDFCB, Delta Electronics, Redox IPO, AMFI

India

Bank of Maharashtra Ltd. provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury & NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities. Bank of Maharashtra also sponsors regional rural banks jointly with the Central Government and State Government.

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Bank of Maharashtra (BOMH IN)

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Executive Exodus at Karnataka Bank: More Than Just "Personal Reasons"?

Karnataka Bank faces leadership turmoil and financial concerns as top executives resign amid boardroom friction and unauthorized spending.

Nimish Maheshwari

Public Sector Banks: Repair, Reform, Reset

Despite improving profitability (FY25 RoAs approaching 1%), investors remain skeptical of the sustainability of these earnings

HDFC Securities

Anthem Biosciences Pre-IPO - The Negatives- Margins Aren't There Yet

Anthem Biosciences is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Akshat Shah

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KQ150, LQ45, PCOMP, HDFC/HDFCB, Delta Electronics, Redox IPO, AMFI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Executive Exodus at Karnataka Bank: More Than Just "Personal Reasons"?

​Karnataka Bank faces leadership turmoil and financial concerns as top executives resign amid boardroom friction and unauthorized spending.

Nimish Maheshwari

Public Sector Banks: Repair, Reform, Reset

Despite improving profitability (FY25 RoAs approaching 1%), investors remain skeptical of the sustainability of these earnings

HDFC Securities

Anthem Biosciences Pre-IPO - The Negatives- Margins Aren't There Yet

Anthem Biosciences is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Akshat Shah

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KQ150, LQ45, PCOMP, HDFC/HDFCB, Delta Electronics, Redox IPO, AMFI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Karnataka Bank faces leadership turmoil and financial concerns as top executives resign amid boardroom friction and unauthorized spending.