Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There is a major difference in risk profile of China and US banks. We have discussed at length in our recent report, the significantly higher level of reserves at US banks during 1H20. For China's banks newly accumulated loan loss reserves (LLR) in the 1H20 is almost zero. US banks have seen a doubling of LLR and the ratio of LLR/loans has increased dramatically. This is wholly different to China banks. And this is not the only concern: China's banks have been lending more aggressively than most all others in Asia, while their hybrid capital is increasing as a proportion of total capital.

There is a major difference in risk profile of China and US banks. We have discussed at length in our recent report, the significantly higher level of reserves at US banks during 1H20. For China's banks newly accumulated loan loss reserves (LLR) in the 1H20 is almost zero. US banks have seen a doubling of LLR and the ratio of LLR/loans has increased dramatically. This is wholly different to China banks. And this is not the only concern: China's banks have been lending more aggressively than most all others in Asia, while their hybrid capital is increasing as a proportion of total capital. 

China Banks – Subtle Risk Deterioration

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 184 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 76.3% as of Jun 5th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.6ppt week-on-week, led by health care, consumer discretionary, consumer staples and offset by materials, information technology, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Yankuang Energy, Haier Smarthome, Times Electric, China Coal, Ping An, Cgn Power.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 184 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 76.3% as of Jun 5th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.6ppt week-on-week, led by health care, consumer discretionary, consumer staples and offset by materials, information technology, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Yankuang Energy, Haier Smarthome, Times Electric, China Coal, Ping An, Cgn Power.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 5th): Yankuang Energy, Haier Smarthome, Times Electric, China Coal, Ping An

It is hard to envisage a positive reading of the abysmal 6.1% YoY fixed asset investment growth in China for May 2018 year-to-date. Headlines and commentators have urged that a recovery in China is underway for some time. If this were so, fixed asset investment growth would not likely be on a downward trend for so long, while now reaching the lowest point in our time series that spans 23 years.  Perhaps as interesting, is that the average rate of growth of all the YTD periods is 20.0%. Retail…

It is hard to envisage a positive reading of the abysmal 6.1% YoY fixed asset investment growth in China for May 2018 year-to-date. Headlines and commentators have urged that a recovery in China is underway for some time. If this were so, fixed asset investment growth would not likely be on a downward trend for so long, while now reaching the lowest point in our time series that spans 23 years.  Perhaps as interesting, is that the average rate of growth of all the YTD periods is 20.0%. Retail…

China Banks – Worsening Macro Will See Higher Bad Loans

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

It has been almost a year since I wrote my piece on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wmp-exposure-in-smaller-banks-in-china-who-are-the-banks-shareholders" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11430">WMP Exposure in Smaller Banks in China &amp; Who Are The Banks' Shareholders</a> that discussed how much of Wealth Management Products exposure that the rural banks carry in their balance sheet. Concerned about the size of the wealth management products issued in the past years and its influence on the banking system, the regulators have issued  <a href="http://www.chinabankingnews.com/2018/04/30/five-key-points-understanding-chinas-new-asset-management-rules/" target="_blank">new guidance</a> as follows:<ol><li>The transition period for the new regulation has been extended to the end of 2020 <ul><li>…</li></ul>
</li></ol>

It has been almost a year since I wrote my piece on WMP Exposure in Smaller Banks in China &amp; Who Are The Banks' Shareholders that discussed how much of Wealth Management Products exposure that the rural banks carry in their balance sheet. Concerned about the size of the wealth management products issued in the past years and its influence on the banking system, the regulators have issued  new guidance as follows:The transition period for the new regulation has been extended to the end of 2020 …


(Less) Wealth(Y) Management Products: New Rules

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 30th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, China Mobile, CNOOC, Tencent, Xiaomi, CCB, Cig Shanghai, Geely Automobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 30th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, China Mobile, CNOOC, Tencent, Xiaomi, CCB, Cig Shanghai, Geely Automobile.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 30th): Alibaba, China Mobile, CNOOC, Tencent, Xiaomi, CCB, Cig Shanghai

China

Bank of Qingdao Co., Ltd. is a commercial bank primarily engaged in corporate banking, retail banking, and financial market operations. It offers a range of financial products and services including personal loans, deposit services, inter-bank money market transactions, and investments in debt securities. The bank was founded on November 15, 1996, and is headquartered in Qingdao, China.

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Bank of Qingdao (3866 HK)

China Banks – Subtle Risk Deterioration

There is a major difference in risk profile of China and US banks. Here we are specifically referring to the degree of accumulated loan loss...

Daniel Tabbush

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 5th): Yankuang Energy, Haier Smarthome, Times Electric, China Coal, Ping An

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Yankuang Energy, Haier Smarthome, Times Electric, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Banks – Worsening Macro Will See Higher Bad Loans

It is hard to envisage a positive reading of the abysmal 6.1% YoY fixed asset investment growth in China for May 2018 year-to-date. Headlines and...

Daniel Tabbush

(Less) Wealth(Y) Management Products: New Rules

It has been almost a year since I wrote my piece on WMP Exposure in Smaller Banks in China & Who Are The Banks' Shareholders that discussed how...

Henry Soediarko

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 30th): Alibaba, China Mobile, CNOOC, Tencent, Xiaomi, CCB, Cig Shanghai

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, China Mobile, CNOOC, Tencent, Xiaomi, CCB, Cig...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)