Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMP released 1H23 numbers with 24-26% underlying NPAT growth in 2 key divisions</li>
<li>AUD610m of returned capital in past 12 months will see AUD140m added by October</li>
<li>AMP Bank is unlike peers, which is deposit-funded, small, focused on mortgages</li>
</ul>


AMP released 1H23 numbers with 24-26% underlying NPAT growth in 2 key divisions
AUD610m of returned capital in past 12 months will see AUD140m added by October
AMP Bank is unlike peers, which is deposit-funded, small, focused on mortgages


AMP - Strong Numbers Released,, Returning Capital, Paying Down Debt, Deposit Funded, Mortgage Bank

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anz-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40898:1" rel="noopener">ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU)</a> is set to announce its First Quarter APS 330 Release on Thursday 20 February 2025.</li>
<li>Traders can trade the event through 20 February 2025 listed options (monthly expiration). Strategies discussed reflect different expectations of market reactions, with risk implications.</li>
<li>Historically, ANZ has experienced an average price move of 1.9% following profit announcements. Option markets anticipate a similar move this time.</li>
</ul>



ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) is set to announce its First Quarter APS 330 Release on Thursday 20 February 2025.
Traders can trade the event through 20 February 2025 listed options (monthly expiration). Strategies discussed reflect different expectations of market reactions, with risk implications.
Historically, ANZ has experienced an average price move of 1.9% following profit announcements. Option markets anticipate a similar move this time.


EQD | ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU): Anticipated Price Swings on Q1 Announcement on 20 Feb 2025

Equity Derivatives

National Australia Bank / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">National Australia Bank (NAB AU)</a> is set to announce its First Quarter Trading Update on Wednesday 19 February 2025.</li>
<li>Traders can trade the event through 20 February 2025 listed options (monthly expiration). Strategies discussed reflect different expectations of market reactions, with risk implications.</li>
<li>Historically, NAB has experienced an average price move of 2.2% following profit announcements. Option markets anticipate a slightly larger move.</li>
</ul>



National Australia Bank (NAB AU) is set to announce its First Quarter Trading Update on Wednesday 19 February 2025.
Traders can trade the event through 20 February 2025 listed options (monthly expiration). Strategies discussed reflect different expectations of market reactions, with risk implications.
Historically, NAB has experienced an average price move of 2.2% following profit announcements. Option markets anticipate a slightly larger move.


EQD | National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Anticipated Price Swings on Q1 Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac Banking (WBC AU)</a> is set to announce its 2025 First Quarter Trading Update on 17 February. </li>
<li>Options expiring 20 February can provide an indication of the size of the move expected on the day, as well as directional bias.</li>
<li>The options market expects a 2.1% to 2.6% move in either direction until 20 February, in-line with historic moves. Peers have so far performed positively on reporting days this month.</li>
</ul>



Westpac Banking (WBC AU) is set to announce its 2025 First Quarter Trading Update on 17 February. 
Options expiring 20 February can provide an indication of the size of the move expected on the day, as well as directional bias.
The options market expects a 2.1% to 2.6% move in either direction until 20 February, in-line with historic moves. Peers have so far performed positively on reporting days this month.


EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) - Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With 4 days left to review cutoff, there is 1 close add and 3 potential deletions for the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.6% and a round-trip trade of A$243m.</li>
<li>The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till Friday and whether the index provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.</li>
</ul>


With 4 days left to review cutoff, there is 1 close add and 3 potential deletions for the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the December rebalance.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.6% and a round-trip trade of A$243m.
The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till Friday and whether the index provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: 1 Close Add & 3 Deletions

Australia

Bank of Queensland Limited is a full service financial institution. The Bank operates retail branches, business banking centers, and equipment finance centers throughout Australia and New Zealand.  Bank of Queensland also operates an automated teller machine (ATM) network throughout Australia.

Price Gauge
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Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU)

AMP - Strong Numbers Released,, Returning Capital, Paying Down Debt, Deposit Funded, Mortgage Bank

AMP is now launching an online bank, and this is a real concern. A the same time, its margin pressure at its AMP Bank is not strong, new guidance...

Daniel Tabbush

EQD | ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU): Anticipated Price Swings on Q1 Announcement on 20 Feb 2025

ANZ Group Holdings to release First Quarter APS 330 on 20 Feb 2025. Traders can use listed options to discover option-implied price swings and...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Anticipated Price Swings on Q1 Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB AU) to release First Quarter Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025. Traders can use listed options to strategize for...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) - Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

Westpac Banking (WBC AU) to announce 2025 Q1 Trading Update on 17 Feb. Peers have seen positive performance on reporting days this month. Options...

Gaudenz Schneider

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: 1 Close Add & 3 Deletions

There could be 1 add and 3 deletes in Dec. Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.6% and a...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

AMP - Strong Numbers Released,, Returning Capital, Paying Down Debt, Deposit Funded, Mortgage Bank

AMP is now launching an online bank, and this is a real concern. A the same time, its margin pressure at its AMP Bank is not strong, new guidance...

Daniel Tabbush

EQD | ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU): Anticipated Price Swings on Q1 Announcement on 20 Feb 2025

​ANZ Group Holdings to release First Quarter APS 330 on 20 Feb 2025. Traders can use listed options to discover option-implied price swings and...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Anticipated Price Swings on Q1 Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025

​National Australia Bank (NAB AU) to release First Quarter Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025. Traders can use listed options to strategize for...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) - Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

​Westpac Banking (WBC AU) to announce 2025 Q1 Trading Update on 17 Feb. Peers have seen positive performance on reporting days this month. Options...

Gaudenz Schneider

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: 1 Close Add & 3 Deletions

There could be 1 add and 3 deletes in Dec. Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.6% and a...

Brian Freitas

ANZ Group Holdings to release First Quarter APS 330 on 20 Feb 2025. Traders can use listed options to discover option-implied price swings and...

National Australia Bank (NAB AU) to release First Quarter Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025. Traders can use listed options to strategize for...

Westpac Banking (WBC AU) to announce 2025 Q1 Trading Update on 17 Feb. Peers have seen positive performance on reporting days this month. Options...