Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asx-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:552:1" rel="noopener">ASX Ltd (ASX AU)</a> is seeing weakness across key revenue items with best delta in what is non- core, net interest income. Suddenly, its operating cash flow is negative. </li>
<li>New listings are down from 217 companies to 57 companies YoY to FY23 and their market capitalization is down from AUD59bn to AUD3bn YoY to FY23. </li>
<li>SG&amp;A costs seem to be rising structurally now at 28% of gross profit in FY23 compared with 23% in FY22 and compared with 17-19% in preceding years. </li>
</ul>



ASX Ltd (ASX AU) is seeing weakness across key revenue items with best delta in what is non- core, net interest income. Suddenly, its operating cash flow is negative. 
New listings are down from 217 companies to 57 companies YoY to FY23 and their market capitalization is down from AUD59bn to AUD3bn YoY to FY23. 
SG&amp;A costs seem to be rising structurally now at 28% of gross profit in FY23 compared with 23% in FY22 and compared with 17-19% in preceding years. 


ASX - New Listings Big Decline, SG&A Costs Up Substantially, Best Income Delta Is Non-Core

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 13th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Pilbara Minerals, Domino'S Pizza E, Computershare, ANZ, Igo.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 13th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Pilbara Minerals, Domino'S Pizza E, Computershare, ANZ, Igo.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 13th): Pilbara Minerals, Domino'S Pizza E, Computershare, ANZ, Igo

<ul>
<li>The results for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-queensland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16606:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU)</a> are illustrative of risks for the mainstream banks in Australia and market expectations</li>
<li>Even with almost all residential mortgage loans, BOQ's credit costs rose from AUD13m to AUD71m YoY and Pillar 3 data shows mortgage NPLs up nearly 10% in past 2 months</li>
<li>Net interest income only +6% YoY and -8% HoH, with operating costs +8% YoY and fee income down, there is nothing core holding the P&amp;L together</li>
</ul>


The results for Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU) are illustrative of risks for the mainstream banks in Australia and market expectations
Even with almost all residential mortgage loans, BOQ's credit costs rose from AUD13m to AUD71m YoY and Pillar 3 data shows mortgage NPLs up nearly 10% in past 2 months
Net interest income only +6% YoY and -8% HoH, with operating costs +8% YoY and fee income down, there is nothing core holding the P&amp;L together


BOQ - Illustrative of Australia Bank Risks Even for Nearly Pure Mortgage Lender and Mkt Expectations

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Australia Securities &amp; Investment Commission produces high-frequency data on insolvencies, which is valuable data for analyzing banks. There is pronounced deterioration in at least 3 sectors.</li>
<li>In construction, total appointments rose to 829 YTD to 10 Sept 2023 from 588 a year ago and from 250 in the preceding comparable period. </li>
<li>Hotel &amp; food services and retail trade are also seeing high growth of insolvencies. Australia's banks will likely face more defaults, NPLs and credit costs. </li>
</ul>


Australia Securities &amp; Investment Commission produces high-frequency data on insolvencies, which is valuable data for analyzing banks. There is pronounced deterioration in at least 3 sectors.
In construction, total appointments rose to 829 YTD to 10 Sept 2023 from 588 a year ago and from 250 in the preceding comparable period. 
Hotel &amp; food services and retail trade are also seeing high growth of insolvencies. Australia's banks will likely face more defaults, NPLs and credit costs. 


Australia - New Insolvencies Data: Construction Appointments at 829 Vs 588 YoY | Credit Risk Worsens

<ul>
<li>Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.</li>
<li>Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.</li>
<li>General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.</li>
</ul>


Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.
Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.
General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.


Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

Australia

Bank of Queensland Limited is a full service financial institution. The Bank operates retail branches, business banking centers, and equipment finance centers throughout Australia and New Zealand.  Bank of Queensland also operates an automated teller machine (ATM) network throughout Australia.

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Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU)

ASX - New Listings Big Decline, SG&A Costs Up Substantially, Best Income Delta Is Non-Core

New listings in major decline, operating cash flow just turned negative, with SG&A moving well higher. Key profit delta is non-core and not likely...

Daniel Tabbush

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 13th): Pilbara Minerals, Domino'S Pizza E, Computershare, ANZ, Igo

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Pilbara Minerals, Domino'S Pizza E, Computershare,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

BOQ - Illustrative of Australia Bank Risks Even for Nearly Pure Mortgage Lender and Mkt Expectations

Results today show the rampant deterioration in credit metrics, causing profit to fall 70% YoY, with other factors also at play. Read-through to...

Daniel Tabbush

Australia - New Insolvencies Data: Construction Appointments at 829 Vs 588 YoY | Credit Risk Worsens

New insolvencies data is weakest in construction sector, but also there is major deterioration in accommodations, food, retail trade. The HFD...

Daniel Tabbush

Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

New data is of concern for bank profit. Housing prices, business index, retail sales, suggest a worsening backdrop. Banks' credit costs in the most...

Daniel Tabbush

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