FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments.  These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last month and its significant correction in recent days.  Throughout this move we have been skeptical that the AUD can sustain its rally with significant local political and economic uncertainty.  These risks remain and continue to make it difficult to hold long AUD positions.  On the other hand, political and economic uncertainty in many alternative currencies are equally troubling. In Australia, economic momentum picked up in 2015, but has been more mixed in 2016.  The housing market is starting to ebb from strong levels, political risks remain elevated, bank equity performance has been weak, potentially a drag on confidence.  However, Global drivers remain in control, and while uncertainty is elevated in Australia, it is not clear that it will be sufficient to throw the Australian economy off course.  The RBA Statement continued to express a steady policy outlook albeit with an easing bias.

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments.  These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last month and its significant correction in recent days.  Throughout this move we have been skeptical that the AUD can sustain its rally with significant local political and economic uncertainty.  These risks remain and continue to make it difficult to hold long AUD positions.  On the other hand, political and economic uncertainty in many alternative currencies are equally troubling. In Australia, economic momentum picked up in 2015, but has been more mixed in 2016.  The housing market is starting to ebb from strong levels, political risks remain elevated, bank equity performance has been weak, potentially a drag on confidence.  However, Global drivers remain in control, and while uncertainty is elevated in Australia, it is not clear that it will be sufficient to throw the Australian economy off course.  The RBA Statement continued to express a steady policy outlook albeit with an easing bias.

AmpGFX - AUD in No Man's Land, Political and Economic Risks Remain Elevated

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently eleven pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and five sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently eleven pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and five sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (6 Apr 2026)

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In the past week, two bottom up developments have dominated the financial market news flow in Australia: the belated announcement of CEO succession at Woolworths and renewed concerns that Australian banks represent a 'big short' thanks to rumours of the imminent collapse of residential house prices. </li><li>The losses announced by Woolworths in its home improvement division this week and decision to exit the business altogether serves as a timely and powerful signal to other companies about the dangers associated with investing for growth in the current environment of deficient demand.  Corporate Australia has already taken heed, with the economy on the precipice of a capex cliff.  The recently released ABS survey of capex intentions points to a 20% slide in business investment in the current financial year, which would represent the largest annual decline in over 25 years.</li><li>Any bubble talk around housing discounts the important role that dwelling investment and household consumption still has to play to support the outlook while the economy is on the precipice of a capex cliff.  Against the backdrop that interest rates will remain low for an extended period (and likely move lower from here), if there is a bubble in Australian housing it might well persist.  To take a cue from John Maynard Keynes, hedge funds seeking to capitalise on Australia's 'big short' will probably need an abundance of patience (and capital).</li></ul>

In the past week, two bottom up developments have dominated the financial market news flow in Australia: the belated announcement of CEO succession at Woolworths and renewed concerns that Australian banks represent a 'big short' thanks to rumours of the imminent collapse of residential house prices. The losses announced by Woolworths in its home improvement division this week and decision to exit the business altogether serves as a timely and powerful signal to other companies about the dangers associated with investing for growth in the current environment of deficient demand.  Corporate Australia has already taken heed, with the economy on the precipice of a capex cliff.  The recently released ABS survey of capex intentions points to a 20% slide in business investment in the current financial year, which would represent the largest annual decline in over 25 years.Any bubble talk around housing discounts the important role that dwelling investment and household consumption still has to play to support the outlook while the economy is on the precipice of a capex cliff.  Against the backdrop that interest rates will remain low for an extended period (and likely move lower from here), if there is a bubble in Australian housing it might well persist.  To take a cue from John Maynard Keynes, hedge funds seeking to capitalise on Australia's 'big short' will probably need an abundance of patience (and capital).

What the Capex Cliff Means for Australia's 'Big Short'

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance / Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS)

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently eleven pair trade opportunities persist across five markets and six sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently eleven pair trade opportunities persist across five markets and six sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (30 Mar 2026)

<ul><li>The key company announcement during the week in Australia came from Woodside Petroleum, that it had provided Oil Search a confidential, all scrip, non-binding proposal to merge.&nbsp;</li><li>I recommend that investors avoid Woodside for four reasons: Mergers &amp; Acquisitions 101 says that acquirers that make all scrip bids typically perform poorly, it is not clear that Woodside can extract synergies from managing Oil Search's assets, integration of the target's assets will further lift Woodside's complexity and agency costs, and analysts continue to downgrade the stock's future growth prospects.</li><li>The sharp drop in consumer sentiment highlights that the elevated level of financial market volatility in recent months has adversely affected the psychology of the household sector.&nbsp; Nonetheless, a number of macro tailwinds are expected to support the outlook for discretionary retail spending.</li></ul>

The key company announcement during the week in Australia came from Woodside Petroleum, that it had provided Oil Search a confidential, all scrip, non-binding proposal to merge.&nbsp;I recommend that investors avoid Woodside for four reasons: Mergers &amp; Acquisitions 101 says that acquirers that make all scrip bids typically perform poorly, it is not clear that Woodside can extract synergies from managing Oil Search's assets, integration of the target's assets will further lift Woodside's complexity and agency costs, and analysts continue to downgrade the stock's future growth prospects.The sharp drop in consumer sentiment highlights that the elevated level of financial market volatility in recent months has adversely affected the psychology of the household sector.&nbsp; Nonetheless, a number of macro tailwinds are expected to support the outlook for discretionary retail spending.

Australia

Bank of Queensland Limited is a full service financial institution. The Bank operates retail branches, business banking centers, and equipment finance centers throughout Australia and New Zealand.  Bank of Queensland also operates an automated teller machine (ATM) network throughout Australia.

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Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU)

AmpGFX - AUD in No Man's Land, Political and Economic Risks Remain Elevated

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments. These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last...

Greg Gibbs

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (6 Apr 2026)

Statistical methodology identifies eleven pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

What the Capex Cliff Means for Australia's 'Big Short'

In the past week, two bottom up developments have dominated the financial market news flow in Australia: the belated announcement of CEO...

Sam Ferraro

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (30 Mar 2026)

Discover eleven pair trade opportunities across five markets and six sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Weekly Impressions

The key company announcement during the week in Australia came from Woodside Petroleum, that it had provided Oil Search a confidential, all scrip,...

Sam Ferraro

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

AmpGFX - AUD in No Man's Land, Political and Economic Risks Remain Elevated

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments. These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last...

Greg Gibbs

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (6 Apr 2026)

​Statistical methodology identifies eleven pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

What the Capex Cliff Means for Australia's 'Big Short'

In the past week, two bottom up developments have dominated the financial market news flow in Australia: the belated announcement of CEO...

Sam Ferraro

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (30 Mar 2026)

​Discover eleven pair trade opportunities across five markets and six sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Weekly Impressions

The key company announcement during the week in Australia came from Woodside Petroleum, that it had provided Oil Search a confidential, all scrip,...

Sam Ferraro

Statistical methodology identifies eleven pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Discover eleven pair trade opportunities across five markets and six sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.