Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The takeover of Baoshang Bank by the government of China is as good a signal as any. All is not well in China banking. Press reports suggest this is the first bank closure in 20 years, which is also telling.  Perhaps the reddest of red flags for this bank was its missing financials for the past two years. We find several other China banks without financial statements, suggesting that this bank may not be alone. Beijing has since highlighted its concerns about high levels of special mention loans (SML) which flatter NPLs. We see many banks in China where SML loans are well over 100% of loss NPLs. The risk to higher credit costs is meaningful.  The negative profit growth shown by six of China’s banks during the latest quarter is another sign of how this can play out.

The takeover of Baoshang Bank by the government of China is as good a signal as any. All is not well in China banking. Press reports suggest this is the first bank closure in 20 years, which is also telling.  Perhaps the reddest of red flags for this bank was its missing financials for the past two years. We find several other China banks without financial statements, suggesting that this bank may not be alone. Beijing has since highlighted its concerns about high levels of special mention loans (SML) which flatter NPLs. We see many banks in China where SML loans are well over 100% of loss NPLs. The risk to higher credit costs is meaningful.  The negative profit growth shown by six of China’s banks during the latest quarter is another sign of how this can play out.

China Banks – Missing Financials, Negative Growth, High Special Mention Loans

Few of China’s banks have yet released full quarterly results, but two are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/659" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:659:1">Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK;</a> BoCom) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21033" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21033:1">Bank Of Zhengzhou (6196 HK;</a> BOZ). A commonality in the numbers is severe weakness in core income, namely net interest income and net fee and commission income. Where we sometimes focus nearly exclusively on credit costs and credit risk, we should also remember that the ability to pay for these is critical.  Additionally, granular data on consumer credit costs at BoCom are of real concern, suggesting a gruesome weakening in the period.

Few of China’s banks have yet released full quarterly results, but two are Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK; BoCom) and Bank Of Zhengzhou (6196 HK; BOZ). A commonality in the numbers is severe weakness in core income, namely net interest income and net fee and commission income. Where we sometimes focus nearly exclusively on credit costs and credit risk, we should also remember that the ability to pay for these is critical.  Additionally, granular data on consumer credit costs at BoCom are of real concern, suggesting a gruesome weakening in the period.

China Banks – Core Income Frailty, Dramatic Consumer Segment Weakness In 2Q18

Other asset growth is surging at China’s banks. It is a line item often associated with assets of limited liquidity, impossible to value, or not easy to fit into a more benign classifications. In the Asian Financial Crisis this was an area of interest: this account included interest in suspense, which was linked to delinquent loans.  Even on a good day, China’s granular data is not wholly clear, so data here is murky. Save to say, that with these so-called other assets now account for more than…

Other asset growth is surging at China’s banks. It is a line item often associated with assets of limited liquidity, impossible to value, or not easy to fit into a more benign classifications. In the Asian Financial Crisis this was an area of interest: this account included interest in suspense, which was linked to delinquent loans.  Even on a good day, China’s granular data is not wholly clear, so data here is murky. Save to say, that with these so-called other assets now account for more than…

Other Assets May Conceal Bad Loans: China

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its 'Sons and Daughters Program'. The silence since then from Chinese anti-corruption officials has been deafening.

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its 'Sons and Daughters Program'. The silence since then from Chinese anti-corruption officials has been deafening.

Chinese Officials Turn a Blind Eye to Corruption

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

China has announced the launch of a new initiative that is likely to liberalize the process for foreign investors to invest in the China bond market. As the third largest bond market in the world, this could be a significant boost to international investors wanting access to the Mainland China debt market.<div class="content-highlight">On 15 March 2017, following the fifth annual meeting of the 12th National People' Congress, Premier Li Keqiang announced the intention to launch a bond trading link between China and Hong Kong…</div>

China has announced the launch of a new initiative that is likely to liberalize the process for foreign investors to invest in the China bond market. As the third largest bond market in the world, this could be a significant boost to international investors wanting access to the Mainland China debt market.On 15 March 2017, following the fifth annual meeting of the 12th National People' Congress, Premier Li Keqiang announced the intention to launch a bond trading link between China and Hong Kong…

China-Hong Kong Bond Connect on Its Way. A Legal Update from Dechert's Financial Services Group

China

Bank of Zhengzhou Co., Ltd. is a city commercial bank based in Henan Province, China, offering a comprehensive range of banking and financial services. Its operations are segmented into corporate banking, retail banking, and treasury business, providing products such as corporate and personal loans, deposits, trade finance, wealth management, and interbank market transactions. The bank was founded in July 1996 and is headquartered in Zhengzhou, China.

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Bank of Zhengzhou (6196 HK)

China Banks – Missing Financials, Negative Growth, High Special Mention Loans

The takeover of Baoshang Bank by the government of China is as good a signal as any. All is not well in China banking. Press reports suggest this...

Daniel Tabbush

China Banks – Core Income Frailty, Dramatic Consumer Segment Weakness In 2Q18

Few of China’s banks have yet released full quarterly results, but two are Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK; BoCom) and Bank Of Zhengzhou (6196...

Daniel Tabbush

Other Assets May Conceal Bad Loans: China

Other asset growth is surging at China’s banks. It is a line item often associated with assets of limited liquidity, impossible to value, or not...

Daniel Tabbush

Chinese Officials Turn a Blind Eye to Corruption

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its...

Bixmoor

China-Hong Kong Bond Connect on Its Way. A Legal Update from Dechert's Financial Services Group

China has announced the launch of a new initiative that is likely to liberalize the process for foreign investors to invest in the China bond...

Dechert LLP

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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