Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We rate Bank Mandiri as our top pick with its attractive valuations including PEG ratio relative to solid returns and strong balance sheet – including liquidity -  metrics</li>
<li>We also continue to favour Bank Negara, but it is our secondary value pick to Mandiri; Bank Central Asia, albeit fully valued, has impressive liquidity and return metrics</li>
<li>Bank Rakyat had mixed returns in 4Q22, with pre-provision returns declining sharply QoQ although cost of risk continued to improve, due to better credit quality, thereby supporting post-provision profits</li>
</ul>


We rate Bank Mandiri as our top pick with its attractive valuations including PEG ratio relative to solid returns and strong balance sheet – including liquidity -  metrics
We also continue to favour Bank Negara, but it is our secondary value pick to Mandiri; Bank Central Asia, albeit fully valued, has impressive liquidity and return metrics
Bank Rakyat had mixed returns in 4Q22, with pre-provision returns declining sharply QoQ although cost of risk continued to improve, due to better credit quality, thereby supporting post-provision profits


Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International's</a> results reflected its exposure to commodities, especially coal, through heavy equipment and mining through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> but most divisions booked growth as the economy recovered.</li>
<li>The company's core auto and financing business made much more than half of its profits and also contributed to its growth with a slower performance from agri-business and construction.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> announced a generous 85%-dividend payout to reward investors for its coal exposure in 2022, implying a 10% dividend yield. Valuations remain significantly below historical averages.</li>
</ul>



Astra International's results reflected its exposure to commodities, especially coal, through heavy equipment and mining through United Tractors (UNTR IJ) but most divisions booked growth as the economy recovered.
The company's core auto and financing business made much more than half of its profits and also contributed to its growth with a slower performance from agri-business and construction.

Astra International (ASII IJ) announced a generous 85%-dividend payout to reward investors for its coal exposure in 2022, implying a 10% dividend yield. Valuations remain significantly below historical averages.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Rewarding Investors for an Extraordinary Year

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Mar 2022, GoTo raised around US$1bn from what was essentially a domestic Indonesian IPO. Its pre-IPO shareholders will be released from their lockup soon.</li>
<li>GoTo was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between two of Indonesia’s largest unicorns Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.</li>
</ul>


In Mar 2022, GoTo raised around US$1bn from what was essentially a domestic Indonesian IPO. Its pre-IPO shareholders will be released from their lockup soon.
GoTo was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between two of Indonesia’s largest unicorns Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.


GoTo IPO Lockup Expiry - US$13bn Lockup Release or in Other Words, the Real IPO

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>'s recent 9M2022 numbers confirmed its position as a well-rounded way to play Indonesia's economic recovery through autos and commodities through its controlling stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors</a>.</li>
<li>The company has continued to deploy its war chest of funds from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-permata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:728:1" rel="noopener">Bank Permata</a> sale, investing in commercial vehicle leasing, hydro-power, and digital banking in 3Q2022 alone.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ</a> trades on 9.0x FY2023 PER and 8.5x FY2024E PER versus its 5-year average forward PER of 14x, making it attractive at current levels. </li>
</ul>



Astra International (ASII IJ)'s recent 9M2022 numbers confirmed its position as a well-rounded way to play Indonesia's economic recovery through autos and commodities through its controlling stake in United Tractors.
The company has continued to deploy its war chest of funds from the Bank Permata sale, investing in commercial vehicle leasing, hydro-power, and digital banking in 3Q2022 alone.

Astra International (ASII IJ trades on 9.0x FY2023 PER and 8.5x FY2024E PER versus its 5-year average forward PER of 14x, making it attractive at current levels. 


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Driving into Indonesia's Growth Areas

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medikaloka-hermina-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27000:1" rel="noopener">Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ)</a> is unique in Indonesia for its focus on women and children, which makes it a resilient performer plus more than half its patients are JKN related.</li>
<li>The company booked a strong set of 1H2022 results despite coming off a high COVID base, with Inpatient and outpatient numbers already above pre-pandemic levels. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> now owns over 7% of the company in its first hospital investment and we could see this stake rising further. Valuations are attractive versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga</a>.</li>
</ul>



Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) is unique in Indonesia for its focus on women and children, which makes it a resilient performer plus more than half its patients are JKN related.
The company booked a strong set of 1H2022 results despite coming off a high COVID base, with Inpatient and outpatient numbers already above pre-pandemic levels. 

Astra International now owns over 7% of the company in its first hospital investment and we could see this stake rising further. Valuations are attractive versus Mitra Keluarga.


Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) - Forging Ahead Beyond COVID

Indonesia

PT Bank Permata Tbk is a leading Indonesian commercial bank offering a comprehensive range of financial services, including retail and corporate banking products such as savings accounts, loans, credit cards, investments, and digital banking platforms. The bank provides solutions in conventional and Sharia-compliant formats, encompassing consumer banking, commercial banking, and wholesale banking segments. Headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, the company was founded in 1954.

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Bank Permata (BNLI IJ)

Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick

Our top pick is Bank Mandiri, and we also like Bank Negara; Bank Central Asia is the quality play but it seems fully valued, Bank Rakyat improved...

Victor Galliano

Astra International (ASII IJ) - Rewarding Investors for an Extraordinary Year

Astra International announced a generous 85%-dividend payout to reward investors for its coal exposure in 2022, implying a 10% dividend yield....

Angus Mackintosh

GoTo IPO Lockup Expiry - US$13bn Lockup Release or in Other Words, the Real IPO

In Mar 2022, GoTo raised around US$1bn from what was essentially a domestic Indonesian IPO. Its pre-IPO shareholders will be released from their...

Sumeet Singh

Astra International (ASII IJ) - Driving into Indonesia's Growth Areas

Astra's recent 9M2022 numbers confirmed its position as a well-rounded way to play Indonesia's economic recovery through autos and commodities...

Angus Mackintosh

Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) - Forging Ahead Beyond COVID

Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) is unique in Indonesia for its focus on women and children, which makes it a resilient performer plus more than half...

Angus Mackintosh

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