Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. </li>
<li>NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. </li>
<li>Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. </li>
</ul>


It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. 
NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. 
Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. 


Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BRIS's YTD 2024 performance has been impressive, with its share price rallied +42% YTD, driven by a substantial 69% increase in avg.</li><li>transaction volume and a doubling of transaction value compared to 2023. Notably, net foreign inflow reached IDR564bn in Jan-Feb 2024 (vs IDR125bn in 4Q23), especially post the release of the strong FY23 financial report.</li><li>▪To bolster its IT security system, BRIS is gearing up for a capex of IDR1.5tn, marking a substantial increase from previous years' budgets which primarily designated for 4-key areas, including security measures &amp; infrastructure enhancements.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIS's YTD 2024 performance has been impressive, with its share price rallied +42% YTD, driven by a substantial 69% increase in avg.transaction volume and a doubling of transaction value compared to 2023. Notably, net foreign inflow reached IDR564bn in Jan-Feb 2024 (vs IDR125bn in 4Q23), especially post the release of the strong FY23 financial report.▪To bolster its IT security system, BRIS is gearing up for a capex of IDR1.5tn, marking a substantial increase from previous years' budgets which primarily designated for 4-key areas, including security measures &amp; infrastructure enhancements.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIS IJ - MNC Sekuritas Equity Report February 20, 2024

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity.</li><li>We expect the big-4 banks to still deliver 5-15% EPS growth supported by 9-16% loans growth and better liquidity in 2H24.</li><li>Maintain Overweight with BBCA as our top pick in the sector given its higher liquidity, CASA ratio, and earnings growth.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity.We expect the big-4 banks to still deliver 5-15% EPS growth supported by 9-16% loans growth and better liquidity in 2H24.Maintain Overweight with BBCA as our top pick in the sector given its higher liquidity, CASA ratio, and earnings growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

<ul><li>Driven by above-peers’ financing growth, low-cost funding, and better efficiencies, we expect BRIS to deliver c. 15% EPS growth in FY24-25F.</li><li>Given its sustainable leadership in the fast-growing Sharia banking market, we believe BRIS’ scarcity premium valuation is justified.</li><li>We reinitiate coverage on BRIS with a Buy and TP of Rp2,700, based on an inverse cost of equity GGM with CoE of 8.0%, implying 2.6x PBV.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Driven by above-peers’ financing growth, low-cost funding, and better efficiencies, we expect BRIS to deliver c. 15% EPS growth in FY24-25F.Given its sustainable leadership in the fast-growing Sharia banking market, we believe BRIS’ scarcity premium valuation is justified.We reinitiate coverage on BRIS with a Buy and TP of Rp2,700, based on an inverse cost of equity GGM with CoE of 8.0%, implying 2.6x PBV.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Syariah Indonesia - Sustainable Growth Outlook Through Dominance in the Sharia Market

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)</a> stood out from its peers with higher loan growth and lower cost of credit with PPOP growth of +17.3% YoY and its ROE reaching 23%. </li>
<li>The bank experienced a slight decline in NIM in 4Q2023 but asset quality remains solid and its digital initiatives continue to reduce costs and attract new users.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri</a>'s guidance for 2024 is more positive than peers for loan growth, as it continues to push out its value chain lending strategy into higher-yielding segments. Valuations remain attractive.</li>
</ul>



Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) stood out from its peers with higher loan growth and lower cost of credit with PPOP growth of +17.3% YoY and its ROE reaching 23%. 
The bank experienced a slight decline in NIM in 4Q2023 but asset quality remains solid and its digital initiatives continue to reduce costs and attract new users.

Bank Mandiri's guidance for 2024 is more positive than peers for loan growth, as it continues to push out its value chain lending strategy into higher-yielding segments. Valuations remain attractive.


Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) - Setting the Pace in 2024

Indonesia

PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk. operates as a bank. The Bank offers checking accounts, credit and debit cards, loans, insurance, payment protection, phone banking, bill pay, fund transfer, and merchant services. Bank Syariah Indonesia serves customers in Indonesia.

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Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT (BRIS IJ)

Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

BMRI reveals cyclical and structural strength to such as a degree that its ROA is highest in its history. Loan growth, NPL decline, lower operating...

Daniel Tabbush

BRIS IJ - MNC Sekuritas Equity Report February 20, 2024

BRIS's YTD 2024 performance has been impressive, with its share price rallied +42% YTD, driven by a substantial 69% increase in avg.

MNC Sekuritas

Banks: FY24 Earnings Growth Outlook Still Intact Despite the Tight Liquidity in 1Q24

We expect the pressure on NIM to persist in 1Q24 driven by a higher CoF, arising from lower excess liquidity. We expect the big-4 banks to still...

BRI Danareksa Research

Bank Syariah Indonesia - Sustainable Growth Outlook Through Dominance in the Sharia Market

Driven by above-peers’ financing growth, low-cost funding, and better efficiencies, we expect BRIS to deliver c. 15% EPS growth in FY24-25F. Given...

BRI Danareksa Research

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) - Setting the Pace in 2024

Bank Mandiri's guidance for 2024 is more positive than peers for loan growth, as it continues to push out is value-chain lending strategy into...

Angus Mackintosh

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