Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BMRI continues to take loan market share with growth well higher than average, due to its large balance sheet and focus on mining</li>
<li>Despite this, its NPL ratio has been steady for several periods, suggesting good underwriting, loan emphasis</li>
<li>ROA recent peak was 3.14% but the bank is near there now at 2.97%, growing in recent quarters, and likely to continue</li>
</ul>


BMRI continues to take loan market share with growth well higher than average, due to its large balance sheet and focus on mining
Despite this, its NPL ratio has been steady for several periods, suggesting good underwriting, loan emphasis
ROA recent peak was 3.14% but the bank is near there now at 2.97%, growing in recent quarters, and likely to continue


2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Bank Tabungan Negara Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BBTN booked NP of Rp1.2tr in 4Q25 (doubled qoq, +30% yoy) resulting in FY25 NP of Rp3.5tr (+16% yoy), beating our and consensus’ FY25F. </li><li>NIM was robust at 4.2% in 4Q25 as EA yield increased supported by EIR adjustment and CoF improvement, offsetting higher CoC.</li><li>Maintain a Buy rating with a higher TP of Rp1,500 as we adjusted FY26/27F earnings by +9/+3%.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBTN booked NP of Rp1.2tr in 4Q25 (doubled qoq, +30% yoy) resulting in FY25 NP of Rp3.5tr (+16% yoy), beating our and consensus’ FY25F. NIM was robust at 4.2% in 4Q25 as EA yield increased supported by EIR adjustment and CoF improvement, offsetting higher CoC.Maintain a Buy rating with a higher TP of Rp1,500 as we adjusted FY26/27F earnings by +9/+3%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN.IJ) Beating Estimates on Strong NIM Amid EIR Adjustments...

<ul><li>We forecast FY26F net profit of Rp3.2tr (+3.9% yoy) for BBTN, supported by robust loan growth (+9.8% yoy) and lower CoC.</li><li>We see potential NIM upside from KUR housing programs but asset quality risks might arise given its nascent stage.</li><li>Maintain Buy rating with a lower TP of Rp1,300. Risks to our view include weaker asset quality and stagnant CoF.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We forecast FY26F net profit of Rp3.2tr (+3.9% yoy) for BBTN, supported by robust loan growth (+9.8% yoy) and lower CoC.We see potential NIM upside from KUR housing programs but asset quality risks might arise given its nascent stage.Maintain Buy rating with a lower TP of Rp1,300. Risks to our view include weaker asset quality and stagnant CoF.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN.IJ) FY26 Outlook: Higher Volume and Lower CoC...

<ul><li>BBTN booked Rp2.3tr (+11% yoy) net profit in 9M25, below at 68%/69% of our/cons FY25F as CoC tripled offsetting the 100bps higher NIM.</li><li>BBTN posted a weak 3Q25 result, with a net profit of Rp596bn (-26% qoq, +3% yoy), as CoC doubled yoy and quarterly opex hit record high.</li><li>We maintain TP of Rp1,400 and upgrade rating to Buy, as the share price has dropped 7.3% since our latest rating downgrade.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBTN booked Rp2.3tr (+11% yoy) net profit in 9M25, below at 68%/69% of our/cons FY25F as CoC tripled offsetting the 100bps higher NIM.BBTN posted a weak 3Q25 result, with a net profit of Rp596bn (-26% qoq, +3% yoy), as CoC doubled yoy and quarterly opex hit record high.We maintain TP of Rp1,400 and upgrade rating to Buy, as the share price has dropped 7.3% since our latest rating downgrade.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN.IJ) 3Q25 Earnings Miss Amid Higher Opex and Credit Costs...

<ul><li>BBTN posted net profit of Rp803bn in 2Q25 (-11% qoq, +25% yoy) bringing its 1H25 NP to Rp1.7tr (+14% yoy), in line with our/cons FY25F.</li><li>Front loading asset yield drove 168bps spike in EA yield bringing NIM to 4.9% in 2Q25, hence we expect NIM to normalize in 2H25.</li><li>We maintain TP of Rp1,400 and downgrade rating to Hold, as we see valuation is fair now post 14% YTD share price increase.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBTN posted net profit of Rp803bn in 2Q25 (-11% qoq, +25% yoy) bringing its 1H25 NP to Rp1.7tr (+14% yoy), in line with our/cons FY25F.Front loading asset yield drove 168bps spike in EA yield bringing NIM to 4.9% in 2Q25, hence we expect NIM to normalize in 2H25.We maintain TP of Rp1,400 and downgrade rating to Hold, as we see valuation is fair now post 14% YTD share price increase.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN.IJ): Robust Earnings Growth While CoF and CoC Stayed Elevated

Indonesia

PT Bank Tabungan Negara Persero Tbk provides commercial banking services.

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Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ)

2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

BMRI is taking market share of loans, growing strongly, with no worsening in credit metrics. Slightly lower NIM is offset by higher fees, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN.IJ) Beating Estimates on Strong NIM Amid EIR Adjustments...

BBTN booked NP of Rp1.2tr in 4Q25 (doubled qoq, +30% yoy) resulting in FY25 NP of Rp3.5tr (+16% yoy), beating our and consensus’ FY25F.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN.IJ) FY26 Outlook: Higher Volume and Lower CoC...

We forecast FY26F net profit of Rp3.2tr (+3.9% yoy) for BBTN, supported by robust loan growth (+9.8% yoy) and lower CoC.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN.IJ) 3Q25 Earnings Miss Amid Higher Opex and Credit Costs...

BBTN booked Rp2.3tr (+11% yoy) net profit in 9M25, below at 68%/69% of our/cons FY25F as CoC tripled offsetting the 100bps higher NIM.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN.IJ): Robust Earnings Growth While CoF and CoC Stayed Elevated

BBTN posted net profit of Rp803bn in 2Q25 (-11% qoq, +25% yoy) bringing its 1H25 NP to Rp1.7tr (+14% yoy), in line with our/cons FY25F.

BRI Danareksa Research

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