Asian bank research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Asian bank research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The high-margin Shariya lender to women only has fared exeptionally during FY20, and this is especially clear in the quarterly progression. Reserve build has been tremendous, possibly allowing for far lower credit costs this year, or even reversals.</p>

The high-margin Shariya lender to women only has fared exeptionally during FY20, and this is especially clear in the quarterly progression. Reserve build has been tremendous, possibly allowing for far lower credit costs this year, or even reversals.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waskita-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15739:1" rel="noopener">Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harum-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1604:1" rel="noopener">Harum Energy (HRUM IJ)</a> as higher probability inclusions in the LQ45 Index.</li>
<li>Given the focus is on liquidity, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-serpong-damai-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15498:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> as higher probability deletion candidates.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We see Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ), BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) and Harum Energy (HRUM IJ) as higher probability inclusions in the LQ45 Index.
Given the focus is on liquidity, we see Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ), Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ) and AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) as higher probability deletion candidates.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

<ul>
<li>It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. </li>
<li>NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. </li>
<li>Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. </li>
</ul>


It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. 
NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. 
Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. 


Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri</a>, Thai Credit Bank IPO, Digital Core REIT placement, and a look at Singapore's most defensive High ROE and low PER stocks. </li>
<li>There were also macro insights on Thailand, looking at its economic malaise and the direction of policy rates, and the Philippines looking at its recent inflation figures.</li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on Bank Mandiri, Thai Credit Bank IPO, Digital Core REIT placement, and a look at Singapore's most defensive High ROE and low PER stocks. 
There were also macro insights on Thailand, looking at its economic malaise and the direction of policy rates, and the Philippines looking at its recent inflation figures.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Bank Mandiri, Thai Credit Bank, and Digital Core REIT.

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Tower Bersama Infrastructure / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

Indonesia

PT Bank BTPN Syariah provides financial and banking services. The Bank offers funding and lending, deposits, e-banking, trade finance, insurance, and investment services. Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Syariah serves customers throughout Indonesia.

Bank BTPN Syariah (BTPS IJ)

BTPS – Potential Profit Surge

The high-margin Shariya lender to women only has fared exeptionally during FY20. Reserve build has been tremendous, possibly allowing for far lower...

Daniel Tabbush

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

Changes to the LQ45 Index will be announced soon & become effective after the close on 31 Jan. We see three potential changes. The adds outperform...

Brian Freitas

Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

BMRI reveals cyclical and structural strength to such as a degree that its ROA is highest in its history. Loan growth, NPL decline, lower operating...

Daniel Tabbush

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Bank Mandiri, Thai Credit Bank, and Digital Core REIT.

The past week saw insights on Bank Mandiri, Thai Credit Bank IPO, Digital Core REIT placement, and a look at Singapore's most defensive High ROE...

Angus Mackintosh

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

There could be 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have performed well while the potential deletes are trading...

Brian Freitas