Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BPCE, the co-operative banking group and majority shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/natixis-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21493:1" rel="noopener">Natixis SA (KN FP)</a> , is offering €4 per share to 29.3% owned by Natixis minority shareholders</li>
<li>Since the replacement of Francois Riahi as CEO by Nicolas Namais last August, Natixis has been brought under closer control by BPCE</li>
<li>We believe that this move will tighten BPCE control and accelerate the restructuring in the asset management and investment banking arenas</li>
<li>Even though this deal is a specific case, in broader terms, it reflects there is appetite for banking deals at current valuations, and that European bank M&amp;A is largely focused on intra-country deals, as has recently been seen in Spain and Italy</li>
<li>A successful offer would result in Natixis being delisting and it implies a “take out” PBV ratio of 0.7x and PE multiple of 15.8x for 2021, based on consensus estimates, which should be appealing to minorities</li>
<li>Risks to our constructive views on European banks M&amp;A prospects include regulatory hurdles, at the national and supra-national levels, as well as capital constraints and credit quality challenges</li>
</ul>


BPCE, the co-operative banking group and majority shareholder of Natixis SA (KN FP) , is offering €4 per share to 29.3% owned by Natixis minority shareholders
Since the replacement of Francois Riahi as CEO by Nicolas Namais last August, Natixis has been brought under closer control by BPCE
We believe that this move will tighten BPCE control and accelerate the restructuring in the asset management and investment banking arenas
Even though this deal is a specific case, in broader terms, it reflects there is appetite for banking deals at current valuations, and that European bank M&amp;A is largely focused on intra-country deals, as has recently been seen in Spain and Italy
A successful offer would result in Natixis being delisting and it implies a “take out” PBV ratio of 0.7x and PE multiple of 15.8x for 2021, based on consensus estimates, which should be appealing to minorities
Risks to our constructive views on European banks M&amp;A prospects include regulatory hurdles, at the national and supra-national levels, as well as capital constraints and credit quality challenges


Natixis (KN FP) - BPCE: European Bank Consolidation Rolls On

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

As we highlighted in last week’s Int’l Compass, the weight of the evidence suggests commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials remains a favorite Sector overweight and we believe outperformance is likely to continue considering the Sector’s long-term bullish RS reversal. Additionally, we are upgrading equal-weighted Energy to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections -- add exposure with a focus on small- and mid-caps.

As we highlighted in last week’s Int’l Compass, the weight of the evidence suggests commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials remains a favorite Sector overweight and we believe outperformance is likely to continue considering the Sector’s long-term bullish RS reversal. Additionally, we are upgrading equal-weighted Energy to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections -- add exposure with a focus on small- and mid-caps.

Global Commodity-Related Equity Sectors In Secular Bull

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

The European Central Bank (ECB) provided EUR1.3tr to banks at a negative interest rate, to promote, to push lending, to support economies, companies, consumers. We know from how central banks and governments are responding to the impact of shutdown, that at the margin they are doing more. Banks are the core of this, with the likely impact being better margins and volume. Where margins are incredibly low for some EU banks, this new facility can provide a sizable delta to net interest income. In turn, this helps support credit costs, which for most regions are being pushed out longer, being phased in over many more months, and unlike what was first anticipated, announced early in the year.

The European Central Bank (ECB) provided EUR1.3tr to banks at a negative interest rate, to promote, to push lending, to support economies, companies, consumers. We know from how central banks and governments are responding to the impact of shutdown, that at the margin they are doing more. Banks are the core of this, with the likely impact being better margins and volume. Where margins are incredibly low for some EU banks, this new facility can provide a sizable delta to net interest income. In turn, this helps support credit costs, which for most regions are being pushed out longer, being phased in over many more months, and unlike what was first anticipated, announced early in the year.

Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

<div class="content-highlight">
Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 
<ul>
<li>
This week in trade ideas, we turn long EUR-USD on a strategic basis and stay engaged in long SPX and VIX where correlations recently moved strongly positive. We add long SGD-CNH to our watchlist.</li>
<li>
Monday: Markets will begin the week with US reports on core PCE deflator as well as consumer income and spending. Colombia’s BanRep meets.</li>
<li>
Tuesday brings Trump’s State of the Union address, New Zealand trade…</li>
</ul>
</div>


Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 


This week in trade ideas, we turn long EUR-USD on a strategic basis and stay engaged in long SPX and VIX where correlations recently moved strongly positive. We add long SGD-CNH to our watchlist.

Monday: Markets will begin the week with US reports on core PCE deflator as well as consumer income and spending. Colombia’s BanRep meets.

Tuesday brings Trump’s State of the Union address, New Zealand trade…



Week Ahead in Global Macro: Last Yellen FOMC, US Treasury Funding, Eurozone GDP/CPI, US Jobs

Spain

Bankia, S.A. provides banking services. The Bank offers deposits, personal loans, e-banking, insurance, corporate finance, capital markets, asset management, and other banking services. Bankia serves customers in Spain.

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Bankia SA (BKIA SM)

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

We are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Vermilion Research

Natixis (KN FP) - BPCE: European Bank Consolidation Rolls On

Even if this case is specific , BPCE's offer for Natixis shows that European bank consolidation continues, mainly on an intra-national level; we...

Victor Galliano

European Banks – Paid to Lend

The European Central Bank (ECB) provided EUR1.3tr to banks at a negative interest rate, to promote, to push lending, to support economies,...

Daniel Tabbush

Week Ahead in Global Macro: Last Yellen FOMC, US Treasury Funding, Eurozone GDP/CPI, US Jobs

Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas, we turn long EUR-USD...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

We are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Vermilion Research

Natixis (KN FP) - BPCE: European Bank Consolidation Rolls On

Even if this case is specific , BPCE's offer for Natixis shows that European bank consolidation continues, mainly on an intra-national level; we...

Victor Galliano

Global Commodity-Related Equity Sectors In Secular Bull

We believe commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials & Energy remain our favorite Sector overweights - add...

Vermilion Research

European Banks – Paid to Lend

The European Central Bank (ECB) provided EUR1.3tr to banks at a negative interest rate, to promote, to push lending, to support economies,...

Daniel Tabbush

Week Ahead in Global Macro: Last Yellen FOMC, US Treasury Funding, Eurozone GDP/CPI, US Jobs

Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas, we turn long EUR-USD...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra