Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As first discussed back in May (see <a href="https://skr.ma/LAfHm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>), shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krungthai-card-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xspring-capital-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19807:1" rel="noopener">XSpring (XPG TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bec-world-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16881:1" rel="noopener">BEC (BEC TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-practical-solution-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45379:1" rel="noopener">The Practical Solution (TPS TB)</a> all went limit down. Twice.</li>
<li>Pledging in those shares - in what I call the Prakitchaiwattana Complex - have been static, to down, in the month of October.</li>
<li>Recent big-ish moves were seen in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-city-cement-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:346:1" rel="noopener">Siam City Cement (SCCC TB)</a> (up), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-expressway-and-metro-68c0c1b3-af0c-4380-a380-f3dc7ba5d5ac" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22849:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB)</a> (up); <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nakhonluang-capital-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26954:1" rel="noopener">Next Capital (NCAP TB)</a> (down) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banpu-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15363:1" rel="noopener">Banpu Public (BANPU TB)</a> (down).</li>
</ul>


As first discussed back in May (see here), shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring (XPG TB), BEC (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
Pledging in those shares - in what I call the Prakitchaiwattana Complex - have been static, to down, in the month of October.
Recent big-ish moves were seen in Siam City Cement (SCCC TB) (up), Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB) (up); Next Capital (NCAP TB) (down) and Banpu Public (BANPU TB) (down).


Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect the electricity tariff and the Ft for the September-December period to follow Scenario (III) proposed by the ERC, which assumes the lowest and flat stable rate compared to the previous period.</li><li>This scenario appears to be the most likely, though there is downside risk from potential government subsidy policies (awaiting Cabinet approval).</li><li>We maintain our view that electricity tariffs and Ft rates are on a downward trend during 2025-27E. </li></ul>

We expect the electricity tariff and the Ft for the September-December period to follow Scenario (III) proposed by the ERC, which assumes the lowest and flat stable rate compared to the previous period.This scenario appears to be the most likely, though there is downside risk from potential government subsidy policies (awaiting Cabinet approval).We maintain our view that electricity tariffs and Ft rates are on a downward trend during 2025-27E. 

Industry Update: Energy (Power) - JULY 18, 2025

<ul><li>The risk that Vietnam Electricity (EVN) may cut the tariff on the FiT2 rate by approximately 25% from FiT1 for renewable energy (RE) projects in Vietnam remains a policy risk.</li><li>While not a new issue — power producers have previously petitioned the Vietnamese government to reconsider this matter — there is still no resolution, making it a factor pressuring the share prices of power stocks with RE projects in Vietnam earlier this week.</li><li>We assess the downside risk exposure among power stocks under our coverage from highest to lowest as follows: BGRIM &gt;&gt; GULF &gt;&gt; BCPG. We maintain our top picks: GULF (Outperform; FV Bt68.75) — supported by a well-diversified revenue structure, stable profit growth, limited policy risk, and strong growth potential; and BCPG (Outperform; FV Bt7.90) — with about 70% of its power portfolio in US-based CCGT power plants, benefiting from strong profit contributions amid an upward trend in capacity revenue, and a favorable 3Q outlook as it enters its peak season.</li></ul>

The risk that Vietnam Electricity (EVN) may cut the tariff on the FiT2 rate by approximately 25% from FiT1 for renewable energy (RE) projects in Vietnam remains a policy risk.While not a new issue — power producers have previously petitioned the Vietnamese government to reconsider this matter — there is still no resolution, making it a factor pressuring the share prices of power stocks with RE projects in Vietnam earlier this week.We assess the downside risk exposure among power stocks under our coverage from highest to lowest as follows: BGRIM &gt;&gt; GULF &gt;&gt; BCPG. We maintain our top picks: GULF (Outperform; FV Bt68.75) — supported by a well-diversified revenue structure, stable profit growth, limited policy risk, and strong growth potential; and BCPG (Outperform; FV Bt7.90) — with about 70% of its power portfolio in US-based CCGT power plants, benefiting from strong profit contributions amid an upward trend in capacity revenue, and a favorable 3Q outlook as it enters its peak season.

Energy Sector (Power Plant) - May 28, 2025

<ul><li>The power sector continues to face persistent negative factors, including the slower pace of the downward interest rate cycle, delays in the PDP 2024 plan, postponement of the RE 2.1 power purchase agreement signing (originally scheduled for mid- February 2025), and the impact of the global minimum tax (with limited downside risk if the BOI’s compensation measures are included).</li><li>Moreover, government intervention in the electricity tariff, spurred by former Prime Minister Thaksin's comments on reducing the tariff to Bt3.70/unit, could introduce further downside risk to IU margins and 2025E earnings estimates, particularly for SPP power producers such as BGRIM and GPSC.</li><li>As a result, these negative factors are expected to cause the power sector to underperform the SET Index, with SPP stocks likely underperforming IPP stocks.</li></ul>

The power sector continues to face persistent negative factors, including the slower pace of the downward interest rate cycle, delays in the PDP 2024 plan, postponement of the RE 2.1 power purchase agreement signing (originally scheduled for mid- February 2025), and the impact of the global minimum tax (with limited downside risk if the BOI’s compensation measures are included).Moreover, government intervention in the electricity tariff, spurred by former Prime Minister Thaksin's comments on reducing the tariff to Bt3.70/unit, could introduce further downside risk to IU margins and 2025E earnings estimates, particularly for SPP power producers such as BGRIM and GPSC.As a result, these negative factors are expected to cause the power sector to underperform the SET Index, with SPP stocks likely underperforming IPP stocks.

Industry Update - Energy (Power) JANUARY 7, 2025

<ul><li>The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has announced the purchase of 2,180 MW under the RE2 program for the first lot, which includes up to 600 MW from wind farm projects and up to 1,580 MW from solar farm projects.</li><li>This is a positive development for operators with pending projects that did not pass the RE1 Phase, as they will receive priority consideration.</li><li>Key beneficiaries may include GULF (approximately 1,000-2,000 MW), BGRIM (about 500-800 MW), GPSC (around 300-400 MW), and GUNKUL (approximately 400 MW). </li></ul>

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has announced the purchase of 2,180 MW under the RE2 program for the first lot, which includes up to 600 MW from wind farm projects and up to 1,580 MW from solar farm projects.This is a positive development for operators with pending projects that did not pass the RE1 Phase, as they will receive priority consideration.Key beneficiaries may include GULF (approximately 1,000-2,000 MW), BGRIM (about 500-800 MW), GPSC (around 300-400 MW), and GUNKUL (approximately 400 MW). 

Industry Update: Energy (Power) - September 25, 2024

Thailand

Banpu Power PCL operats power plants in Thailand, Laos, China and Japan.

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Banpu Power PCL (BPP TB)

Thai Pledged Shares In October 2025

This insight is primarily about pledged tables. Recent big-ish moves were seen in Siam City Cement (up), Bangkok Expressway and Metro (up); Next...

David Blennerhassett

Industry Update: Energy (Power) - JULY 18, 2025

Public hearings on the ERC’s three electricity tariff scenarios for Sep. - Dec. period, with the final outcome pending Cabinet approval

Krungthai XSpring

Energy Sector (Power Plant) - May 28, 2025

The risk that Vietnam Electricity (EVN) may cut the tariff on the FiT2 rate by approximately 25% from FiT1 for renewable energy (RE) projects in...

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update - Energy (Power) JANUARY 7, 2025

The power sector continues to face persistent negative factors, including the slower pace of the downward interest rate cycle, delays in the PDP...

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update: Energy (Power) - September 25, 2024

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has announced the purchase of 2,180 MW under the RE2 program for the first lot, which includes up to 600 MW...

Krungthai XSpring

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