Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>Specifically, the EEM-US has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If MSCI EM has indeed bottomed, we want to be buying the leaders; that is where this report comes in.</li>
<li>Specific themes include attractive opportunities in India and Thailand, and also many in Taiwan and South Korea. Attractive Sectors include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials.</li>
</ul>


We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
Specifically, the EEM-US has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If MSCI EM has indeed bottomed, we want to be buying the leaders; that is where this report comes in.
Specific themes include attractive opportunities in India and Thailand, and also many in Taiwan and South Korea. Attractive Sectors include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials.


Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.</li>
<li>We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.</li>
<li>Worth noting- further breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.
We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.
Worth noting- further breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.


Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jul 10th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD3.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in PTT E&amp;P, SCC, Minor International, Amata, CP Foods, PTT E&amp;P, Scc, Minor International, Cp Foods.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jul 10th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD3.1bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in PTT E&amp;P, SCC, Minor International, Amata, CP Foods, PTT E&amp;P, Scc, Minor International, Cp Foods.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jul 10th): PTT E&P, SCC, Minor International, Amata, CP Foods, Scc

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai market to try to find interesting ideas base upon Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai market to try to find interesting ideas base upon Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 32

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>The SETENERG has gained 16% from its April low (vs. the SET at +17%) and is currently trading at 0.72x PBV (-1.75 S.D.) from the low point in April at 0.61x PBV (-2.0 S.D.), owing to the easing of the lockdowns globally and hopes for the successful development of a vaccine for COVID-19.</li><li>However, the sector's upside is likely to be limited by the risks of a second wave of the outbreak and a potential delay in vaccine development (with some sources not expecting a vaccine to be widely available until late 2021E), possibly prolonging the resumption of commodity demand to the pre-COVID level beyond 2H21E.</li><li>Thus, we maintain a Neutral rating for the sector, with the themes of the "New normal" and "Integration" behind our top picks of PTTGC (Buy; 21E TP of Bt53) and PTT (Buy; 21E TP of Bt43).</li></ul>

The SETENERG has gained 16% from its April low (vs. the SET at +17%) and is currently trading at 0.72x PBV (-1.75 S.D.) from the low point in April at 0.61x PBV (-2.0 S.D.), owing to the easing of the lockdowns globally and hopes for the successful development of a vaccine for COVID-19.However, the sector's upside is likely to be limited by the risks of a second wave of the outbreak and a potential delay in vaccine development (with some sources not expecting a vaccine to be widely available until late 2021E), possibly prolonging the resumption of commodity demand to the pre-COVID level beyond 2H21E.Thus, we maintain a Neutral rating for the sector, with the themes of the "New normal" and "Integration" behind our top picks of PTTGC (Buy; 21E TP of Bt53) and PTT (Buy; 21E TP of Bt43).

Neutral Rating Maintained, With Risks to Limit the Upside

Thailand

Banpu Public Company Limited is a versatile energy provider operating in three core business segments: energy resources (coal and gas), energy generation (thermal and renewable power plants), and energy technology (total solar energy solutions, energy storage, electric vehicles, and energy management systems). The company operates in 10 countries across Asia-Pacific and the United States. Banpu was founded on May 16, 1983, and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Banpu (BANPU-R TB)

Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets

We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on $EEM. Specifically, the EEM has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If EEM has...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Pullback Underway; Problem: U.S. Dollar $DXY, Global 10-Yr Sovereign Yields, and Commodities All on the Rise Again; Actionable Themes: Energy,...

Vermilion Research

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jul 10th): PTT E&P, SCC, Minor International, Amata, CP Foods, Scc

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in PTT E&P, SCC, Minor International, Amata, CP...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 32

A. Stotz Thai Portfolio: We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology.

A. Stotz Investment Research

Neutral Rating Maintained, With Risks to Limit the Upside

The SETENERG has gained 16% from its April low (vs. the SET at +17%) and is currently trading at 0.72x PBV (-1.75 S.D.) from the low point in...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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