Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In September, national new home (“commercial residential”) sales GFA increased 35.3% YoY and 27.1% YTD YoY, compared to 19.1% and 25.6% in August, according to the latest data published by NBS today.This contrasts with the earlier trend of decelerating new home sales growth, though covers the period just before the new wave of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-new-wave-of-home-purchase-restrictions" target="_blank">home purchase restrictions was introduced in October. </a>National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) increased 12.5% on YoY basis…

In September, national new home (“commercial residential”) sales GFA increased 35.3% YoY and 27.1% YTD YoY, compared to 19.1% and 25.6% in August, according to the latest data published by NBS today.This contrasts with the earlier trend of decelerating new home sales growth, though covers the period just before the new wave of home purchase restrictions was introduced in October. National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) increased 12.5% on YoY basis…

China Data: New Home Sales Growth Higher at 27.1% YTD Y/Y (Jan-Sep), Before New Wave Of Restrictions

China housing market may be confusing when you watch it from further afield: how do you square house price bubble trouble (not only in Tier-1 cities) headlined now across the media with the dire state of ghost cities and oversupply portrayed at the same time, with supply-side reforms on top of the agenda? Yes, the market has become more divergent and policy more differentiating between cities, but we still have the overall cycle at play. In this note, we look at the latest indicators for where we really might be in that cycle.

China housing market may be confusing when you watch it from further afield: how do you square house price bubble trouble (not only in Tier-1 cities) headlined now across the media with the dire state of ghost cities and oversupply portrayed at the same time, with supply-side reforms on top of the agenda? Yes, the market has become more divergent and policy more differentiating between cities, but we still have the overall cycle at play. In this note, we look at the latest indicators for where we really might be in that cycle. 

Latest Signals For China Housing Market Cycle - Peak Or Not?

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

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Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co A / Equity Bottom-Up

Baosteel has announced that it will acquire Wuhan Iron &amp; Steel Co, or WISCO, through a share-swap exercise. Under the plan, Baoshan will issue 5.65 billion stocks at CNY 4.60 per share in exchange for WISCO shares, indicating a share swap ratio of 0.56/1. The transaction is subjected to approvals from minority shareholders and the respective authorities. Meanwhile, trading of Baosteel will remain suspended, as the Shanghai Stock Exchange is still reviewing the merger plan. We maintain our earnings forecasts and fair value estimate, pending the completion of the deal. Meanwhile, our no-moat rating is unchanged, as we think the combined company will still generate returns below its weighted average cost of capital in the long run amid the challenging operating environment in the steel sector.Analyst: Phillip Zhong

Baosteel has announced that it will acquire Wuhan Iron &amp; Steel Co, or WISCO, through a share-swap exercise. Under the plan, Baoshan will issue 5.65 billion stocks at CNY 4.60 per share in exchange for WISCO shares, indicating a share swap ratio of 0.56/1. The transaction is subjected to approvals from minority shareholders and the respective authorities. Meanwhile, trading of Baosteel will remain suspended, as the Shanghai Stock Exchange is still reviewing the merger plan. We maintain our earnings forecasts and fair value estimate, pending the completion of the deal. Meanwhile, our no-moat rating is unchanged, as we think the combined company will still generate returns below its weighted average cost of capital in the long run amid the challenging operating environment in the steel sector.Analyst: Phillip Zhong

Baosteel's Acquisition Plan Earnings-Dilutive in the Near Term

The weekly data from SouFun-CREIS survey on new home sales in 35 major cities for the four weeks August 1 - 28 (Weeks 32-35) shows a further, though a gradual, slowdown in sales volume growth, bringing year-to-date year-on-year change from 35.5% for the Weeks 1-30 to 32.1% for the Weeks 1-35). On a 4-week rolling year-on-year basis, however, the growth was 15.9% for Weeks 32-35, compared to 9.4% for Weeks 28-31.The official data for national sales volumes for August will be published on…

The weekly data from SouFun-CREIS survey on new home sales in 35 major cities for the four weeks August 1 - 28 (Weeks 32-35) shows a further, though a gradual, slowdown in sales volume growth, bringing year-to-date year-on-year change from 35.5% for the Weeks 1-30 to 32.1% for the Weeks 1-35). On a 4-week rolling year-on-year basis, however, the growth was 15.9% for Weeks 32-35, compared to 9.4% for Weeks 28-31.The official data for national sales volumes for August will be published on…

Weekly China Property Data For August Points At Further Gradual Slowdown In National Sales Growth

For January-July 2016 period (latest complete data), overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and Tier-2) increased by 2.1% year-to-date year-on-year, compared to 2.5% in June and 6% in May, according to our analysis of city-level data from SouFun-CREIS.The 40 major cities account for close to 40% of national sales volumes growth, and similarly for their share of new starts and completions. Ref. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-by-tier-where-is-the-action" target="_blank">our note on China Property By Tier</a>.Growth in new…

For January-July 2016 period (latest complete data), overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and Tier-2) increased by 2.1% year-to-date year-on-year, compared to 2.5% in June and 6% in May, according to our analysis of city-level data from SouFun-CREIS.The 40 major cities account for close to 40% of national sales volumes growth, and similarly for their share of new starts and completions. Ref. our note on China Property By Tier.Growth in new…

China Property: Land Sales Growth Remains Muted (Jan-Jul Data)

China

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of iron and steel products including cold rolled plates and coils, hot rolled plates and coils, seamless steel tubes, high-speed wire rods, and steel billets.  The company also operates in related energy production businesses.

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Baoshan Iron & Steel Co A (600019 CH)

China Data: New Home Sales Growth Higher at 27.1% YTD Y/Y (Jan-Sep), Before New Wave Of Restrictions

In September, national new home (“commercial residential”) sales GFA increased 35.3% YoY and 27.1% YTD YoY, compared to 19.1% and 25.6% in August,...

Robert Ciemniak

Latest Signals For China Housing Market Cycle - Peak Or Not?

China housing market may be confusing when you watch it from further afield: how do you square house price bubble trouble (not only in Tier-1...

Robert Ciemniak

Baosteel's Acquisition Plan Earnings-Dilutive in the Near Term

Baosteel has announced that it will acquire Wuhan Iron & Steel Co, or WISCO, through a share-swap exercise. Under the plan, Baoshan will issue...

Morningstar, Inc.

Weekly China Property Data For August Points At Further Gradual Slowdown In National Sales Growth

The weekly data from SouFun-CREIS survey on new home sales in 35 major cities for the four weeks August 1 - 28 (Weeks 32-35) shows a further,...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Land Sales Growth Remains Muted (Jan-Jul Data)

For January-July 2016 period (latest complete data), overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and...

Robert Ciemniak

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