Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> has secured an exclusive 30-year mining right to the <strong>Weld Range Project, </strong>which has 290 million tons of resource and will significantly extend Fenix's mine life.</li>
<li>Initial plans are to increase production from the Weld Range to 6 million tons, taking <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> to a 10-12 million ton production profile. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> has already nearly tripled its production from 1.5 million tonnes to 4.4 million tonnes and trades at a 1.7x price-to-OCF (at a $100/tonne iron ore price). </li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has secured an exclusive 30-year mining right to the Weld Range Project, which has 290 million tons of resource and will significantly extend Fenix's mine life.
Initial plans are to increase production from the Weld Range to 6 million tons, taking Fenix Resources (FEX AU) to a 10-12 million ton production profile. 

Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has already nearly tripled its production from 1.5 million tonnes to 4.4 million tonnes and trades at a 1.7x price-to-OCF (at a $100/tonne iron ore price). 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China's exports surged 17.4%YoY in H1/2026, mitigating the impact of FAI declining 5.7%YoY, and retail sales eking out 0.2%YoY growth in Q2/2026. Propped by exports, Q2/2026 real GDP grew 4.3%YoY.</li>
<li>Like steel in 2011-15, car exports are soaring (70.6%YoY H1/2026) while domestic sales are slumping (-20.4%YoY). China's car exports are gaining global market share by dumping (selling below cost). </li>
<li>Real GDP will likely grow less than 4% in 2026. With net services/income and capital outflows of US$1.09trn (Jul'25-Jun'26), stimulus will increase capital flight. Nonetheless China's export companies are BUYs.</li>
</ul>


China's exports surged 17.4%YoY in H1/2026, mitigating the impact of FAI declining 5.7%YoY, and retail sales eking out 0.2%YoY growth in Q2/2026. Propped by exports, Q2/2026 real GDP grew 4.3%YoY.
Like steel in 2011-15, car exports are soaring (70.6%YoY H1/2026) while domestic sales are slumping (-20.4%YoY). China's car exports are gaining global market share by dumping (selling below cost). 
Real GDP will likely grow less than 4% in 2026. With net services/income and capital outflows of US$1.09trn (Jul'25-Jun'26), stimulus will increase capital flight. Nonetheless China's export companies are BUYs.


China: Slumping Domestic Economy Is Propped up by Exports Dumped Abroad

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>About 50 Chinese state-owned companies are trying to bolster investor confidence by rolling out share buybacks or plans by big stockholders to expand their holdings after a series of other measures to prop up the stock market fell short.</li><li>China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index has dropped more than 6% this year, despite supportive government policies that included halving the stamp duty on stock trades and lowering the minimum ratio for stock purchases through margin financing in August.</li><li>The index gained 0.35% Tuesday.</li></ul>

About 50 Chinese state-owned companies are trying to bolster investor confidence by rolling out share buybacks or plans by big stockholders to expand their holdings after a series of other measures to prop up the stock market fell short.China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index has dropped more than 6% this year, despite supportive government policies that included halving the stamp duty on stock trades and lowering the minimum ratio for stock purchases through margin financing in August.The index gained 0.35% Tuesday.

State-Owned Companies Buy Back Shares to Boost Investor Confidence 

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<p>Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.</p>

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

China

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of iron and steel products including cold rolled plates and coils, hot rolled plates and coils, seamless steel tubes, high-speed wire rods, and steel billets.  The company also operates in related energy production businesses.

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Baoshan Iron & Steel Co A (600019 CH)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again

We summarize the "game-changing" developments/concall gleanings in Fenix Resources (FEX AU), which have seen its reserves increase by 9x and the...

Sameer Taneja

China: Slumping Domestic Economy Is Propped up by Exports Dumped Abroad

China's exports drive 4.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1/2026 despite slumping domestic demand. Like steel a decade ago, dumped car exports are gaining...

Prasenjit K. Basu

State-Owned Companies Buy Back Shares to Boost Investor Confidence

About 50 Chinese state-owned companies are trying to bolster investor confidence by rolling out share buybacks or plans by big stockholders to...

Caixin Global

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again

We summarize the "game-changing" developments/concall gleanings in Fenix Resources (FEX AU), which have seen its reserves increase by 9x and the...

Sameer Taneja

China: Slumping Domestic Economy Is Propped up by Exports Dumped Abroad

​China's exports drive 4.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1/2026 despite slumping domestic demand. Like steel a decade ago, dumped car exports are gaining...

Prasenjit K. Basu

State-Owned Companies Buy Back Shares to Boost Investor Confidence

About 50 Chinese state-owned companies are trying to bolster investor confidence by rolling out share buybacks or plans by big stockholders to...

Caixin Global

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

China's exports drive 4.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1/2026 despite slumping domestic demand. Like steel a decade ago, dumped car exports are gaining...