Smartkarma AI, Smartkarma

αSK

Smartkarma AI

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
  <li>Barclays' diversified business model, with a UK-centric retail and commercial bank (Barclays UK) and a transatlantic investment bank (Barclays International), provides a balanced revenue stream, though the investment bank introduces earnings volatility.</li>
  <li>A new strategic plan announced in February 2024 aims to simplify the bank, cut £2 billion in costs, and return at least £10 billion to shareholders by 2026, targeting a Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) of over 12%.</li>
  <li>While the bank is demonstrating strong growth and resilience, it faces headwinds from a challenging macroeconomic environment, intense competition, and the persistent challenge of improving returns in its capital-intensive investment banking division.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  Barclays' diversified business model, with a UK-centric retail and commercial bank (Barclays UK) and a transatlantic investment bank (Barclays International), provides a balanced revenue stream, though the investment bank introduces earnings volatility.
  A new strategic plan announced in February 2024 aims to simplify the bank, cut £2 billion in costs, and return at least £10 billion to shareholders by 2026, targeting a Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) of over 12%.
  While the bank is demonstrating strong growth and resilience, it faces headwinds from a challenging macroeconomic environment, intense competition, and the persistent challenge of improving returns in its capital-intensive investment banking division.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Barclays PLC (BARC LN) - Sep 2025

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Santander UK’s RoTE (11.1%) lags behind the group’s (16.2%) due to high cost-to-income ratio and margin pressures, but 2025 prospects are positive with expected regulatory easing and higher interest rates.</li>
<li>Barclays could acquire Santander UK for £12 billion, maintaining a 12.5% CET1 ratio by leveraging equity issuance, debt financing, and asset sales to fund the acquisition.</li>
<li>Santander is likely to prioritize cost-saving measures and risk reduction strategies to enhance profitability, as the UK remains a core market with low likelihood of divestment.</li>
</ul>


Santander UK’s RoTE (11.1%) lags behind the group’s (16.2%) due to high cost-to-income ratio and margin pressures, but 2025 prospects are positive with expected regulatory easing and higher interest rates.
Barclays could acquire Santander UK for £12 billion, maintaining a 12.5% CET1 ratio by leveraging equity issuance, debt financing, and asset sales to fund the acquisition.
Santander is likely to prioritize cost-saving measures and risk reduction strategies to enhance profitability, as the UK remains a core market with low likelihood of divestment.


Strategic Crossroads: Santander UK Acquisition by Barclays?

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse includes the write-off of CHF15.8bn (USD17bn) of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, despite there being residual equity value for CS shareholders in the deal</li>
<li>AT1s are the most junior, loss absorbing of bonds; precedent exists for the zeroing of AT1s in Spain’s Banco Popular 2017 failure, but importantly this also included shareholders being zeroed</li>
<li>The Credit Suisse AT1 write-off is by far the biggest so far and this unconventional treatment of shareholders versus junior bondholders should lead European banks’ cost of equity to rise</li>
</ul>


The UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse includes the write-off of CHF15.8bn (USD17bn) of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, despite there being residual equity value for CS shareholders in the deal
AT1s are the most junior, loss absorbing of bonds; precedent exists for the zeroing of AT1s in Spain’s Banco Popular 2017 failure, but importantly this also included shareholders being zeroed
The Credit Suisse AT1 write-off is by far the biggest so far and this unconventional treatment of shareholders versus junior bondholders should lead European banks’ cost of equity to rise


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we were neutral.</li>
<li>Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since 5/14/25. We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold.</li>
<li>Additionally, as discussed last week (12/2/25) we believe SPX, QQQ, and Russell 2000 (IWM) are in the midst of a new lockout rally, which is likely to run through early-2026</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we were neutral.
Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since 5/14/25. We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold.
Additionally, as discussed last week (12/2/25) we believe SPX, QQQ, and Russell 2000 (IWM) are in the midst of a new lockout rally, which is likely to run through early-2026


Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

United Kingdom

Barclays PLC is a global financial services provider engaged in retail banking, credit cards, wholesale banking, investment banking, wealth management and investment management services.

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Barclays PLC (BARC LN)

Primer: Barclays PLC (BARC LN) - Sep 2025

Barclays' diversified business model, with a UK-centric retail and commercial bank (Barclays UK) and a transatlantic investment bank (Barclays...

αSK

Strategic Crossroads: Santander UK Acquisition by Barclays?

Santander UK's lower RoTE due to high costs and margin pressures, but future prospects look positive with expected regulatory easing and potential...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

AT1 Bonds; Life After Credit Suisse

The CS AT1 write-off due to UBS's acquisition is an unconventional action on bondholders versus shareholders, implying a rising banks' cost of...

Victor Galliano

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield is below 4.2%, and quite possibly 4.35%-4.50% if MOVE index...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Primer: Barclays PLC (BARC LN) - Sep 2025

Barclays' diversified business model, with a UK-centric retail and commercial bank (Barclays UK) and a transatlantic investment bank (Barclays...

αSK

Strategic Crossroads: Santander UK Acquisition by Barclays?

​Santander UK's lower RoTE due to high costs and margin pressures, but future prospects look positive with expected regulatory easing and potential...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

AT1 Bonds; Life After Credit Suisse

The CS AT1 write-off due to UBS's acquisition is an unconventional action on bondholders versus shareholders, implying a rising banks' cost of...

Victor Galliano

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield is below 4.2%, and quite possibly 4.35%-4.50% if MOVE index...

Vermilion Research

Santander UK's lower RoTE due to high costs and margin pressures, but future prospects look positive with expected regulatory easing and potential...