Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we were neutral.</li>
<li>Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since 5/14/25. We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold.</li>
<li>Additionally, as discussed last week (12/2/25) we believe SPX, QQQ, and Russell 2000 (IWM) are in the midst of a new lockout rally, which is likely to run through early-2026</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we were neutral.
Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since 5/14/25. We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold.
Additionally, as discussed last week (12/2/25) we believe SPX, QQQ, and Russell 2000 (IWM) are in the midst of a new lockout rally, which is likely to run through early-2026


Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.


Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Active UK funds gained +11.75% through Q3, lagging the FTSE All Share ETF’s +15.9%—a 4.15% gap, with nearly 75% of managers underperforming.</li>
<li>Value strategies led returns (+16.6%), while Aggressive Growth funds averaged just +4.5%.</li>
<li>Key underweights in Rolls-Royce, HSBC, BAE Systems and BATS cost roughly 3% in relative performance.</li>
</ul>


Active UK funds gained +11.75% through Q3, lagging the FTSE All Share ETF’s +15.9%—a 4.15% gap, with nearly 75% of managers underperforming.
Value strategies led returns (+16.6%), while Aggressive Growth funds averaged just +4.5%.
Key underweights in Rolls-Royce, HSBC, BAE Systems and BATS cost roughly 3% in relative performance.


UK Active Funds Face a Benchmark Blowout in 2025

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

United Kingdom

Barclays is a British multinational universal bank headquartered in London, England. It provides a wide range of financial services including retail banking, corporate banking, wealth management, and investment banking. The company serves individual customers, small and medium-sized businesses, and large corporate clients globally. Barclays traces its origins to goldsmith banking in London, founded in 1690.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Barclays (BARC LN)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield is below 4.2%, and quite possibly 4.35%-4.50% if MOVE index...

Vermilion Research

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI. Discussed Thursday to expect support at the 50-day MA. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

UK Active Funds Face a Benchmark Blowout in 2025

Active UK funds trail the benchmark by 4% YTD. Value managers outperform, but missed calls on Rolls-Royce, HSBC, and BAE Systems weigh heavily on...

Steven Holden

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)