Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Active UK funds gained +11.75% through Q3, lagging the FTSE All Share ETF’s +15.9%—a 4.15% gap, with nearly 75% of managers underperforming.</li>
<li>Value strategies led returns (+16.6%), while Aggressive Growth funds averaged just +4.5%.</li>
<li>Key underweights in Rolls-Royce, HSBC, BAE Systems and BATS cost roughly 3% in relative performance.</li>
</ul>


Active UK funds gained +11.75% through Q3, lagging the FTSE All Share ETF’s +15.9%—a 4.15% gap, with nearly 75% of managers underperforming.
Value strategies led returns (+16.6%), while Aggressive Growth funds averaged just +4.5%.
Key underweights in Rolls-Royce, HSBC, BAE Systems and BATS cost roughly 3% in relative performance.


UK Active Funds Face a Benchmark Blowout in 2025

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The main forecasted additions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rheinmetall-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21700:1" rel="noopener">Rheinmetall AG (RHM GR)</a> as they are both surpassing the entry rank.</li>
<li>The main forecasted deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercedes-benz-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21602:1" rel="noopener">Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/basf-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21585:1" rel="noopener">BASF (BAS GR)</a> as they are both below the exit rank.</li>
<li>The highest-ranked among <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-bank-ag-40d2d02f-a52f-4d36-a86f-79c59c4f0f17" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:526:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Bank (DBK GR)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bae-systems-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21825:1" rel="noopener">BAE Systems (BA/ LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barclays-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1121:1" rel="noopener">Barclays (BARC LN)</a> may replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/diageo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:977:1" rel="noopener">Diageo Plc (DGE LN)</a> if its price falls further.</li>
</ul>


The main forecasted additions are Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM) and Rheinmetall AG (RHM GR) as they are both surpassing the entry rank.
The main forecasted deletions are Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR) and BASF (BAS GR) as they are both below the exit rank.
The highest-ranked among Deutsche Bank (DBK GR), BAE Systems (BA/ LN) and Barclays (BARC LN) may replace Diageo Plc (DGE LN) if its price falls further.


STOXX Europe50 September 2025 Forecast: BBVA & RHM Set to Join, BAS & MBG to Exit

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 17/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.1m barrel decrease. Gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected.</li>
<li>U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 223 Bcf for the week ending 17/Jan, missing analyst expectations of a 270 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 0.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>J.P. Morgan, HSBC, TD Cowen, Barclays, and Citigroup raised their 12-month PTs on SLB post its Q4 earnings. Halliburton reported a YoY decline in Q4 revenue and EPS.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 17/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.1m barrel decrease. Gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected.
U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 223 Bcf for the week ending 17/Jan, missing analyst expectations of a 270 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 0.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
J.P. Morgan, HSBC, TD Cowen, Barclays, and Citigroup raised their 12-month PTs on SLB post its Q4 earnings. Halliburton reported a YoY decline in Q4 revenue and EPS.


[ETP 2025/04] WTI Falls on Trump’s Push for Higher Oil Output, Henry Hub Climbs on Colder Forecasts

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Schlumberger’s Q4 2024 revenue is expected to increase by 2.6% YoY and EPS by 7.1%. For fiscal 2024, revenue is expected to rise 9.3% YoY and EPS by 14.4%.  </li>
<li>SLB surpassed analyst EPS projections for the past four consecutive quarters, despite facing headwinds from lower drilling activity in North America and slowing international expenditures.</li>
<li>SLB completed the construction of the world's first industrial-scale carbon capture facility in Q4. It also enhanced its digital solutions portfolio and secured major contracts for deepwater operations.</li>
</ul>


Schlumberger’s Q4 2024 revenue is expected to increase by 2.6% YoY and EPS by 7.1%. For fiscal 2024, revenue is expected to rise 9.3% YoY and EPS by 14.4%.  
SLB surpassed analyst EPS projections for the past four consecutive quarters, despite facing headwinds from lower drilling activity in North America and slowing international expenditures.
SLB completed the construction of the world's first industrial-scale carbon capture facility in Q4. It also enhanced its digital solutions portfolio and secured major contracts for deepwater operations.


[Earnings Preview] Can Schlumberger Defy a Sluggish Q4 to Keep Beating Expectations?

United Kingdom

Barclays PLC is a global financial services provider engaged in retail banking, credit cards, wholesale banking, investment banking, wealth management and investment management services.

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Barclays PLC (BARC LN)

UK Active Funds Face a Benchmark Blowout in 2025

Active UK funds trail the benchmark by 4% YTD. Value managers outperform, but missed calls on Rolls-Royce, HSBC, and BAE Systems weigh heavily on...

Steven Holden

STOXX Europe50 September 2025 Forecast: BBVA & RHM Set to Join, BAS & MBG to Exit

Main forecasted additions are BBVA and RHM, while MBG and BAS are the main forecasted deletions. DBK , BA., and BARC are potential replacement...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/04] WTI Falls on Trump’s Push for Higher Oil Output, Henry Hub Climbs on Colder Forecasts

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected. Natural gas inventories also fell short of...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Can Schlumberger Defy a Sluggish Q4 to Keep Beating Expectations?

SLB's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to rise YoY. However, whether it will beat analyst projections remains to be seen. SLB made landmark...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

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UK Active Funds Face a Benchmark Blowout in 2025

Active UK funds trail the benchmark by 4% YTD. Value managers outperform, but missed calls on Rolls-Royce, HSBC, and BAE Systems weigh heavily on...

Steven Holden

STOXX Europe50 September 2025 Forecast: BBVA & RHM Set to Join, BAS & MBG to Exit

​Main forecasted additions are BBVA and RHM, while MBG and BAS are the main forecasted deletions. DBK , BA., and BARC are potential replacement...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/04] WTI Falls on Trump’s Push for Higher Oil Output, Henry Hub Climbs on Colder Forecasts

​US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected. Natural gas inventories also fell short of...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Can Schlumberger Defy a Sluggish Q4 to Keep Beating Expectations?

​SLB's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to rise YoY. However, whether it will beat analyst projections remains to be seen. SLB made landmark...

Mint Finance

Main forecasted additions are BBVA and RHM, while MBG and BAS are the main forecasted deletions. DBK , BA., and BARC are potential replacement...

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected. Natural gas inventories also fell short of...

SLB's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to rise YoY. However, whether it will beat analyst projections remains to be seen. SLB made landmark...