Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 constituent change for the LQ45 Index and 2 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR)</a>. </li>
<li>The adds have moved higher over the recent past and are near their highs while the deletes have dropped over the last few years and are trading near their lows.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 constituent change for the LQ45 Index and 2 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 July.
The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Bank Central Asia (BBCA), Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI) and Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR). 
The adds have moved higher over the recent past and are near their highs while the deletes have dropped over the last few years and are trading near their lows.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Investors’ concerns was triggered by MSCI’s announcement that it is conducting a consultation to review a possible change in foreign inclusion factor (FIF) to possibly include KSEI data which would exclude shares held by corporate and “others” from the free-float.</li><li>MSCI has outlined two scenarios under this proposed method, which may effectively result in lower weighting for Indonesian stocks in MSCI EM Index.</li><li>Despite the overhang from MSCI index review, foreign investors flow sustained a positive flow during the week, with US$333mn of inflow, putting Indonesia among the few markets with positive flow for the second consecutive week.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Investors’ concerns was triggered by MSCI’s announcement that it is conducting a consultation to review a possible change in foreign inclusion factor (FIF) to possibly include KSEI data which would exclude shares held by corporate and “others” from the free-float.MSCI has outlined two scenarios under this proposed method, which may effectively result in lower weighting for Indonesian stocks in MSCI EM Index.Despite the overhang from MSCI index review, foreign investors flow sustained a positive flow during the week, with US$333mn of inflow, putting Indonesia among the few markets with positive flow for the second consecutive week.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the Week – JCI Market Capitalization

Barito Renewables Energy / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a>'s stock price has been buffeted by expectations of index inclusion and then an unwind of that positioning a few times over the last year.</li>
<li>With selling from some big shareholders, free float appears to have increased to a point where the stock could be added to a global index in November.</li>
<li>There is also a possibility of being added to another global index in March, but that is a question for the next year.</li>
</ul>



Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)'s stock price has been buffeted by expectations of index inclusion and then an unwind of that positioning a few times over the last year.
With selling from some big shareholders, free float appears to have increased to a point where the stock could be added to a global index in November.
There is also a possibility of being added to another global index in March, but that is a question for the next year.


Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>JCI rallied by a strong 4.8% w-w and was the top performer among the EM markets last week.</li><li>The index’s performance was driven by a combination of large-cap ‘fundamental’ stocks (i.e., BBRI +11% w-w, TLKM 13%, BBCA +5%, BMRI +4%) and illiquid and conglo stocks (DCII, DSSA).</li><li>Market’s rally was also driven by the strong return in foreign investors’ flow which amounted to US$412mn, which put Indonesia among the only market with positive flow among the Asian EMs, with notable inflows into large-cap banks and TLKM. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JCI rallied by a strong 4.8% w-w and was the top performer among the EM markets last week.The index’s performance was driven by a combination of large-cap ‘fundamental’ stocks (i.e., BBRI +11% w-w, TLKM 13%, BBCA +5%, BMRI +4%) and illiquid and conglo stocks (DCII, DSSA).Market’s rally was also driven by the strong return in foreign investors’ flow which amounted to US$412mn, which put Indonesia among the only market with positive flow among the Asian EMs, with notable inflows into large-cap banks and TLKM. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Banking Sector’s P/BV Band Chart (5-Year)

<ul><li>Market review: Following 3 weeks of negative performances, JCI staged a rebound of +2.7% w-w, outperforming majority of the EM peers.</li><li>The index’s performance was driven by the large-cap sectors: Banks (+3.1% w-w), Telco (+2.7% w-w) as well as laggard sectors namely Poultry (+7.7% w-w), Cement (+4.5%), and Tower (+4.1%), indicating likelihood of technical rebound amid still limited catalysts.</li><li>Foreign investors remain net sellers in the market with -US$115mn of outflow. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market review: Following 3 weeks of negative performances, JCI staged a rebound of +2.7% w-w, outperforming majority of the EM peers.The index’s performance was driven by the large-cap sectors: Banks (+3.1% w-w), Telco (+2.7% w-w) as well as laggard sectors namely Poultry (+7.7% w-w), Cement (+4.5%), and Tower (+4.1%), indicating likelihood of technical rebound amid still limited catalysts.Foreign investors remain net sellers in the market with -US$115mn of outflow. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the week – JCI, LQ45, and IDX80 YTD Performance

Indonesia

PT Barito Pacific Tbk manufactures petrochemicals. The Company produces olefins, propylene, ethylene, and styrene.  Barito Pacific also produces semi-finished wood products for furniture manufacturers, and owns land in Jakarta.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes

There is 1 change for the LQ45 index and 2 changes for the IDX80 index. Plus there are float and capping changes. The adds have traded higher while...

Brian Freitas

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the Week – JCI Market Capitalization

MSCI has outlined two scenarios under this proposed method, which may effectively result in lower weighting for Indonesian stocks in MSCI EM Index.

BRI Danareksa Research

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)

An increase in float could see Barito Renewables added to a global index in November. Positioning is likely to be lower than the estimated passive...

Brian Freitas

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Banking Sector’s P/BV Band Chart (5-Year)

The index’s performance was driven by a combination of large-cap ‘fundamental’ stocks (i.e., BBRI +11% w-w, TLKM 13%, BBCA +5%, BMRI +4%) and...

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the week – JCI, LQ45, and IDX80 YTD Performance

Market review: Following 3 weeks of negative performances, JCI staged a rebound of +2.7% w-w, outperforming majority of the EM peers.

BRI Danareksa Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes

There is 1 change for the LQ45 index and 2 changes for the IDX80 index. Plus there are float and capping changes. The adds have traded higher while...

Brian Freitas

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the Week – JCI Market Capitalization

MSCI has outlined two scenarios under this proposed method, which may effectively result in lower weighting for Indonesian stocks in MSCI EM Index.

BRI Danareksa Research

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)

An increase in float could see Barito Renewables added to a global index in November. Positioning is likely to be lower than the estimated passive...

Brian Freitas

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Banking Sector’s P/BV Band Chart (5-Year)

The index’s performance was driven by a combination of large-cap ‘fundamental’ stocks (i.e., BBRI +11% w-w, TLKM 13%, BBCA +5%, BMRI +4%) and...

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the week – JCI, LQ45, and IDX80 YTD Performance

Market review: Following 3 weeks of negative performances, JCI staged a rebound of +2.7% w-w, outperforming majority of the EM peers.

BRI Danareksa Research

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes