Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 constituent change for the LQ45 Index and 2 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR)</a>. </li>
<li>The adds have moved higher over the recent past and are near their highs while the deletes have dropped over the last few years and are trading near their lows.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 constituent change for the LQ45 Index and 2 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 July.
The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Bank Central Asia (BBCA), Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI) and Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR). 
The adds have moved higher over the recent past and are near their highs while the deletes have dropped over the last few years and are trading near their lows.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes

Barito Renewables Energy / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a>'s stock price has been buffeted by expectations of index inclusion and then an unwind of that positioning a few times over the last year.</li>
<li>With selling from some big shareholders, free float appears to have increased to a point where the stock could be added to a global index in November.</li>
<li>There is also a possibility of being added to another global index in March, but that is a question for the next year.</li>
</ul>



Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)'s stock price has been buffeted by expectations of index inclusion and then an unwind of that positioning a few times over the last year.
With selling from some big shareholders, free float appears to have increased to a point where the stock could be added to a global index in November.
There is also a possibility of being added to another global index in March, but that is a question for the next year.


Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian market has seen a sharp sell-off with a confluence of concerns centred around the execution and implementation of government policy but the fall was mainly driven by retail.</li>
<li>The sell-off does not reflect an underlying deterioration of growth prospects for the economy or indeed earnings, although 4Q2024 results saw a slower performance for some sectors. </li>
<li>The government has already taken note and has determined to take action to reassure investors through policy measures. Valuations have already reached a historically attractive level.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian market has seen a sharp sell-off with a confluence of concerns centred around the execution and implementation of government policy but the fall was mainly driven by retail.
The sell-off does not reflect an underlying deterioration of growth prospects for the economy or indeed earnings, although 4Q2024 results saw a slower performance for some sectors. 
The government has already taken note and has determined to take action to reassure investors through policy measures. Valuations have already reached a historically attractive level.


CrossASEAN Strategy - Indonesia's Delicate Balance

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> stock has gone through a series of gyrations as index inclusion was announced and then retracted due to the concentrated holding of the stock.</li>
<li>With pre-IPO PE/VC investors selling some stock, the increase in float could result in the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> in a global index later this month.</li>
<li>The inclusion of the stock in the index will require passive trackers to buy just over 400m shares of the stock. That is over 14x ADV and will be impactful.</li>
</ul>



Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) stock has gone through a series of gyrations as index inclusion was announced and then retracted due to the concentrated holding of the stock.
With pre-IPO PE/VC investors selling some stock, the increase in float could result in the inclusion of Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) in a global index later this month.
The inclusion of the stock in the index will require passive trackers to buy just over 400m shares of the stock. That is over 14x ADV and will be impactful.


Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>'s Tender offer Buyback is to understand what YOU can do in your particular position.</li>
<li>Despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a>'s recent share buyback, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> is still preferable on a look-through P/B of 0.34x.</li>
<li>Kirin bumps the Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>. Given market gyration, it may represent enough of a switching opportunity to let those who still object in principle to re-allocate elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


The trade in Toyota Motor (7203 JP)'s Tender offer Buyback is to understand what YOU can do in your particular position.
Despite Swire Properties (1972 HK)'s recent share buyback, Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) is still preferable on a look-through P/B of 0.34x.
Kirin bumps the Offer for Fancl (4921 JP). Given market gyration, it may represent enough of a switching opportunity to let those who still object in principle to re-allocate elsewhere. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Swire, Fancl, Barito Complex, Descente

Indonesia

PT Barito Pacific Tbk manufactures petrochemicals. The Company produces olefins, propylene, ethylene, and styrene.  Barito Pacific also produces semi-finished wood products for furniture manufacturers, and owns land in Jakarta.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes

There is 1 change for the LQ45 index and 2 changes for the IDX80 index. Plus there are float and capping changes. The adds have traded higher while...

Brian Freitas

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)

An increase in float could see Barito Renewables added to a global index in November. Positioning is likely to be lower than the estimated passive...

Brian Freitas

CrossASEAN Strategy - Indonesia's Delicate Balance

The Indonesian market has seen a sharp sell-off with a confluence of concerns centred around the execution and implementation of government policy...

Angus Mackintosh

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month

BREN has a higher float following selling from pre-IPO investors. The increased free float market cap could result in inclusion in a global index...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Swire, Fancl, Barito Complex, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes

There is 1 change for the LQ45 index and 2 changes for the IDX80 index. Plus there are float and capping changes. The adds have traded higher while...

Brian Freitas

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)

An increase in float could see Barito Renewables added to a global index in November. Positioning is likely to be lower than the estimated passive...

Brian Freitas

CrossASEAN Strategy - Indonesia's Delicate Balance

The Indonesian market has seen a sharp sell-off with a confluence of concerns centred around the execution and implementation of government policy...

Angus Mackintosh

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month

BREN has a higher float following selling from pre-IPO investors. The increased free float market cap could result in inclusion in a global index...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Swire, Fancl, Barito Complex, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes