Equity analyst UK & Europe, UK Long Short

Peter Toeman

Equity analyst UK & Europe

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The UK stockmarket has enjoyed a buoyant first quarter keeping track with other developed markets. This might appear somewhat surprising given political turmoil and the existential risk posed by Brexit but it seems that investors always anticipated that Parliament would veto the most damaging "No-deal" option. In this regard investors have been more far-sighted than right-wing Conservative politicians.So where to now for FTSE100 ? The index is back to the level of early 18Q4 which seems appropriate given the anticipated economic downturn recession failed to materialise. The old adage "Sell in May and go away" comes to mind. As strategy this has worked quite well. Over the 25 years the market has been lower at the at the end of the second quarter than at the beginning 42%  of the time, producing an average return of minus 0.4%.In terms of individual companies, Tesco (which we had in the long portfolio) is amongst the top ten performers year-to-date, and Centrica (in the short portfolio) is the second worst.

The UK stockmarket has enjoyed a buoyant first quarter keeping track with other developed markets. This might appear somewhat surprising given political turmoil and the existential risk posed by Brexit but it seems that investors always anticipated that Parliament would veto the most damaging "No-deal" option. In this regard investors have been more far-sighted than right-wing Conservative politicians.So where to now for FTSE100 ? The index is back to the level of early 18Q4 which seems appropriate given the anticipated economic downturn recession failed to materialise. The old adage "Sell in May and go away" comes to mind. As strategy this has worked quite well. Over the 25 years the market has been lower at the at the end of the second quarter than at the beginning 42%  of the time, producing an average return of minus 0.4%.In terms of individual companies, Tesco (which we had in the long portfolio) is amongst the top ten performers year-to-date, and Centrica (in the short portfolio) is the second worst.

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The OBR made surprisingly sharp downward revisions to its productivity growth assessment that reduced the government’s room for manoeuvre. Fudging to fit the BoE’s policy stance may be yielding an unduly dismal demand outlook.</li>
<li>Policy changes left a little fiscal headroom. There was a welcome focus on “the vision thing” with money for Brexit planning and housing policies, including new garden towns. Tax changes were modest and present negligible forecast news.</li>
<li>
There was little change to the current…</li>
</ul>


The OBR made surprisingly sharp downward revisions to its productivity growth assessment that reduced the government’s room for manoeuvre. Fudging to fit the BoE’s policy stance may be yielding an unduly dismal demand outlook.
Policy changes left a little fiscal headroom. There was a welcome focus on “the vision thing” with money for Brexit planning and housing policies, including new garden towns. Tax changes were modest and present negligible forecast news.

There was little change to the current…


UK Budget: Excessive Stress After Supply Smash

<ul>
<li>Borrowing is better than had been expected. The financing requirement is likely to be several billion smaller, with the T-Bill stock temporarily shrinking further.</li>
<li>The OBR has forwarned an intent to downgrade its productivity assessment, although I expect lower equilibrium unemployment to temper the growth effect.</li>
<li>All fiscal targets will continue to be met, albeit with policy changes trimming the headroom slightly. Housing is a focus, potentially with a new garden city coming.</li>
</ul> It is the first UK…


Borrowing is better than had been expected. The financing requirement is likely to be several billion smaller, with the T-Bill stock temporarily shrinking further.
The OBR has forwarned an intent to downgrade its productivity assessment, although I expect lower equilibrium unemployment to temper the growth effect.
All fiscal targets will continue to be met, albeit with policy changes trimming the headroom slightly. Housing is a focus, potentially with a new garden city coming.
 It is the first UK…

Asia Ex-J Consumer/ Transport analyst

Valerie Law, CFA

It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that didn't work for me. <blockquote>But first, a note of thanks to the SK community</blockquote>Besides doing an update, it is also an opportunity to thank everyone here at Smartkarma for your wonderful support (especially the Data Desk team) and collaborative work with fellow insight providers. Looking forward to a stellar year ahead together!<h2>Table showing IPO deals covered</h2><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>IPO</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>…

It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that didn't work for me. But first, a note of thanks to the SK communityBesides doing an update, it is also an opportunity to thank everyone here at Smartkarma for your wonderful support (especially the Data Desk team) and collaborative work with fellow insight providers. Looking forward to a stellar year ahead together!Table showing IPO deals covered

IPO

…

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

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Last week the immediate shock from the Brexit eased considerably. It has become clear that all the Brexit vote really did was guarantee a prolonged period of uncertainty. It has also become clear that it will take months to gauge the impact that this prolonged period of uncertainty will have on both the Eurozone and global economy.

Last week the immediate shock from the Brexit eased considerably. It has become clear that all the Brexit vote really did was guarantee a prolonged period of uncertainty. It has also become clear that it will take months to gauge the impact that this prolonged period of uncertainty will have on both the Eurozone and global economy.

What Investors Should Be Asking About A Brexit

United Kingdom

Barratt Redrow PLC develops and builds properties. The Group's operations include the building of houses and housing complexes, general buildings, and civil engineering projects, as well as participation in urban renewal and the development of commercial properties. Barratt Redrow serves customers in the United Kingdom.

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Barratt Redrow (BTRW LN)

FTSE 100 Long/Short: No 2 No Deal

The UK stockmarket has enjoyed a buoyant first quarter keeping track with other developed markets. This might appear somewhat surprising given...

Boost Research

UK Budget: Excessive Stress After Supply Smash

The OBR made surprisingly sharp downward revisions to its productivity growth assessment that reduced the government’s room for manoeuvre. Fudging...

Phil Rush

UK Budget Preview: Supply Shocks

Borrowing is better than had been expected. The financing requirement is likely to be several billion smaller, with the T-Bill stock temporarily...

Phil Rush

A Summary of Stock Calls and Actions

It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that...

Valerie Law, CFA

What Investors Should Be Asking About A Brexit

Last week the immediate shock from the Brexit eased considerably. It has become clear that all the Brexit vote really did was guarantee a prolonged...

David Riedel

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)